Value drivers11 Apr 2024 11:21
I feel for the BOD here, they have released the most significant value additive/confirmative news ever, and investors are focused on the minor items
The EURs have sky rocketed, by 350% to 456% from a base of 1 m in the planning assumptions, shown in the strategy update of Nov 2023, in which the recognition of $5 to $10 per barrel is set as a target, based on the below numbers
Well Performance
• EUR of 1 million barrels of marketable liquids
• IP30 of 1,500 bpd, First year decline 60%
• All wells assumed to perform at lowest likely level (20% downside from expected case of 1.2 million barrels per well)
hxxps://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/presentations/684-investor-presentation-november-2023/file
Up to 30 production & 10 injection wells from Alkaid & Phecda pads
• Post Alkaid-2 successful re-entry, requirement may be reduced
• 20,000 bpd marketable liquids processing capacity
To the current
Ahpun Topsets EUR 3.5 mmbbls
Kodiak - Theta West EUR 3.65 mmbbls
Kodiak Updip EUR 4.56 mmbbls
With a reduced 17 producers and 7 reinjection wells, to produce the same 20,000 bbls. Note 16 less wells for the same output
EURs like this, mean the well costs no more to drill and complete, but will return 350 to 456% more marketable liquids over its life time
The two projects just received a shot in the arm that makes the 254m extra barrels in Kodiak look like a small fish.
A whole lot of oil, is one thing, a whole lot of profitable oil is the real target
The only reservoir that may not perform to these levels is the wee 76.5 m Alkaid ZOI, but as stated earlier even an EUR assumption of 1 m barrels, is viable enough to achieve the $5 to $10 per barrel
I note that the economics of the Alkaid ZOI will be independently assessed by Lee Keeling "imminently"