RE: Bit more fact-checking required13 Apr 2024 23:27
Its a pattern now, anyone that posts a thorough analysis, with referenced facts, or a logic backed opinion, is subject to an abusive put down of their character.
Note, not of their arguments, as the posters are unable to dispute the facts, or logic
It is the exact pattern through all of the other pump and dump cycles, food for though in the thinking mind
Back to the current facts
24.8 barrels of oil flowed over 111 hrs of flowback in the USFS reservoir, with 1.45mmcf of accompanying gas, be generous and say an average of 42 bopd for a total of 14hrs. That is a very short oil flow test, PANR did 5 days of oil flow in their test, at an average of 45 bopd, with the handbrake hard on, to minimize flashing in the reservoir.
The volume of gas 88e produced, suggests the handbrake was off, and the gas pedal was fully down
A GOR of 58000 scf to 1 barrel of oil, research that for an idea of how poor it is
Even allowing for over producing, to gain a high headline grabbing oil flow in the test, halve that to 29000 scf/bbl, see what your research concludes
Now awaiting the flow rate on the SMDB, with an 88e, info derived estimated 29% of the pre estimated recoverable 140mm bbls. That 41 mmbbls is the success case in SMDB
Reasonable to expect a flow rate, sure, the question will be is it economic
To prove that will require another drill, horizontal multi stage frack and long term flow test. Plan for a cost of $25 to $30m for this
Farm out or sell, possible, but don't expect good terms. PANR with a massive resource, in a much more favorable updip geology, with a long term flow test showing a 10000 ft production well with the appropriate frack, in their worst geology would yield an IP30 of 1500bpd. Opted to go into production to bypass the need to deal with the circling sharks
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