Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi Rag, interesting

Always good to see your posts - good or bad news

PP has to be fair made his case

He’s not invested Short or Long but posts 40 times a day to warn people about a single line stock and they might lose their money

The poster is like one of those people walking around the outside of a racecourse or football stadium - they never go in - with a placard saying;

‘ it’s the end of the world ‘

But they are there next week next year …

If Big Mike is going to load up again he’s got 3 weeks at these prices 33p to 38p whilst the BoD are hamstrung in a closed period

Umar bought 3% a week or so before closed season - he’s an insider whichever way you cut it

Interims are unaudited

Boo BoD are going to put on a show but they know FCF / EBITDA number will be closely watched

Big Mike in the wings to mop up post results

Cheers T4G / Hex

Balanced responses that deserve to be considered

Hi Hex

Good points, my thought process was COGS reduction wasn’t in the hat so to speak back in May - they took the 35% in transit

Maybe they didn’t want to shout about it whilst a bit raw ?

They could well have been waiting for August management numbers due to the wet summer in U.K. before raising guidance ? Just some thoughts

As always happy to be challenged - on below £numbers

Fully understand there are caveats

Hi Hex/ T4g

Few thoughts- tweaking stuff

Looks to me that Boo are delivering their timetable - attempting to until we see the £numbers/blurb - what they laid out back in May on the conference call

If am right - and I could well be wrong with my Calcs - Boo will be closer to the 6% EBITDA than 4%

The 35% in transit COGS savings are off the scale cash wise I guess they would hold some back on the margin, 6% would be adequate to please the market

If we tweak down the margin £43M gross H1 top end - being 5.5% on £780M Rev

We know capex is £85M full year but lets put £50M in H1

Finance and Rev B legals £8M ? Could be a touch higher

They take £20M from the £100M marketing budget

Working cap drops as test / repeat and revenue dropped to £780M revenue

Could well be another 2% to 44 days, looks doable

Boo then report , 5.5% to 6% margin

FCF neutral to positive

If Boo guide on the 6% 2024 on £1.7B we rerate

Lots of IF’s but … the above looks possible

This paragraph

‘High used car prices mean that those selling may be able to get back close to what they paid for their cars, or in some cases more’

So they move back home, sell the car , loads of jobs have cash at this point , won’t be able to get a mortgage and live for the weekend / going out

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10593989/Nearly-20-34-year-olds-living-parents.html

We know Boo spend 10% to 13% of sales on marketing, it’s big cash on £1.7B - they told us this won’t budge

It looks to me they have held back a wee bit for H1 and stepped up H2 commencing Sept 1st in line with PLT a relaunch USA with 24hr delivery from the newly opened 1M sq/ft Distribution unit

Any saving in the budget increases the EBITDA plus the FCF

COGS/ Distribution is on top of course - gone through those numbers on other posts - maybe a tad on working cap days

IF … Boo announce FCF neutral and an increase of EBITDA margin the market will like

Same time IF the Kamani family buy in to try and head off MA then it becomes very interesting

All about being in position Short / Long or if your weird PP a who has no position

Some serious uplift in content, especially USA side, too much to list but PLT has been focusing on University/ collages

Boo man urban areas USA especially East Coast for both

Karen Millen U.K. stepped up collaborations

Debenhams Middle East - concession driven - these guys are going for from Egypt to UAE

Lots going on outside the U.K.

https://instagram.com/stories/karen_millen/3186691258489859187?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

https://www.instagram.com/stories/boohoomanofficial/3186627217038992757/

https://instagram.com/stories/prettylittlething/3186744733850543486?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

T4g

Am not sure it’s market makers on their own

Mixture of bots, vacuum of news and MA can’t get volume if he wants more equity, unless anyone on margin, needs the cash then it’s just all about your Bet /skin in the game if you believe or not that Boo is on track and your in position

Or if your PP and your not invested Short or Long and you post 40 posts a day including poems from Rudyard Kipling.

Fair comment Hex

Nb know we had downgrades to this range but the price point was 40p to 45p?

Does FCF neutral ,revenue in line with forecast and guidance to H2 being back in profit see a share price jump with a new floor / support ?

Reason being, it looks to me 6 weeks before Results / as we enter close period, we had broker updates with targets of 40p to 45p

Wondering if Boo have provided direction / guidance via private meetings to the brokers which is the norm ?

Any comments ?

Cheers Hex

Daytrade, the market is usually right and Boo is where it is

However they pumped in close to £200M last year /this for investment and think it’s reasonable to build in 6% EBITDA for 2024 - they have a chance ?

£1.7B revenue 2024 ?

£12M interest, put aside capex of £60M - they indicate lower but think many of us think £40M phase 2 USA

I’ve discounted to zero for Rev B for the example

ditto growth of Debenhams Middle East

I can’t see the write downs reoccurring and 6% gross looks about right when we consider COGS/ distribution costs lower

Is the above fair reflection ?

Hi Hex/ T4G

I think Hex’s evaluation for this year H1 is spot on from what they have told us

Personal view - stuff we know but Boo not disclosed/ stuff we can monitor as investors

COGS in transit was slashed 35% all in, that’s serious cash if it wasn’t passed on, considering it’s on £480M top line then it has to feed to cash bottom line ?

Pre Covid Boo averaged around 46% COGS but this one off 35% - in transit - H1 looks material to me, I am not saying it’s the full amount on £480M but if it was 10% not 35%? they break even on cash H1, I reckon they knew exactly what they doing / planned and executed in transit

If we look at marketing, it’s appears to have been relatively quiet H1,and then we enter H2 and they have stepped up by the looks of things - this is just my view point

If we look at working cap days, they managed to get to 46, with a potential pull back in revenue can they get this down ? Maybe a few days ditto alongside test / repeat

all helps FCF

Distribution costs, down 90% for containers, maybe there is a few quid here

Capex going forward 2024, £20M maintenance £40M USA phase 2 based on what we know Sheffield

Can’t see it being more than £60M as you say T4G

Last one … Rev B , they have definitely started to raise the brand profile on Boo sites, there could some decent cash to be had here but against that one off legal costs so not sure if we see a net positive from Rev B overall H1 more like H2

Sticking my neck out due to the factors above we are FCF neutral give or take H1 - hope am right of course

PP what is Sosanders total revenue and gross margin ?

PP what is your call on the interims in terms of below ?

FCF ? What’s your view ? What was the burn ?

Genuine question btw

PLT range specifically USA?