Member Info for Okehurst1

Because they don’t say that …. Unless your posting insider information ?

Please copy paste

Where do they say ;

‘Even Boohoo have stated their revenue for fy2024 will be flat to 5% decline. Boohoo are confirming their revenue by geographical region figures will continue to decrease for fy 2024’

That’s your big statement PP, copy and paste that paragraph please

PP just confirm your source ?

Do you have inside information?

They say return to growth H2 where do they say

‘Even Boohoo have stated their revenue for fy2024 will be flat to 5% decline. Boohoo are confirming their revenue by geographical region figures will continue to decrease for fy 2024’

That’s not a what you said

I will paste & Poste exactly what the BoD said but please post your link

No your wrong PP please list your source

Boo didn’t say that on the May conference call ?

Have you inside information PP?

That’s a big statement to make

When did Boo say flat to decline?

Can you share the link ?

Yeah I straight lined revenue for year / ditto COGS ££

Wasn’t sure on USA etc went for £430M but as you say it could be 7.5% off £419M as they guided to as much as 15% reduction in sales - that was their guidance in the presentation.

Reduction H1 growth H2 was what they said

Mentioned we don’t know the £value of the 35% but we can except something ££ it’s the unknown

Supported by Cotton down 50%

Distribution is on top, they pinpoint container prices down 90% year on year

Air freight being cheaper allows them to be slicker with Test / repeat so they can manage stock / working cap better etc

The conf call was v helpful as they explain stuff that helps understand the costs & savings going forward

One item I did miss off FCF was exceptional’s, they guided to £20M full year USA

As I say well worth a read of the script

No prob Hex

It’s worth getting the transcript below you can join dots using their KPI’s

Just on COGS, the percentage was 50% cost of sales last year

they advise 15% to 5% reduction in sales, so on a straight line basis H1 call it £430M ( low end )

Then discount the 35% that was taken off suppliers in transit H1 - the industry told us not Boo

It’s a big number

Nb assuming Ragtrade is correct that Boo may not be passing on the discount to customers

Hi Hex

Think you mentioned the other day you hadn’t accessed the Conf call from May and where did I get the £480M from?

Only just had the chance to respond in a bit more detail

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BOOHOO-GROUP-PLC-16023307/news/Transcript-Boohoo-group-plc-2023-Earnings-Call-May-16-2023-43867791/

The site above is handy as they convert voice to script, makes it easier doing the research / if you’re using spread sheets - not sure if you are ? Saves making notes etc

COGS as a top line £number H1 could well be 7.5% lower pro rata -naturally -with Boo focusing on margin/ test repeat, Boo dropped working cap to 46 days from 50 plus to produce some serious FCF 2022 ,looks to me this will be reduced again H1

Nb working on sales down 15% top end , COGS 2022 made up 50% of cost of sales so 7.5% reduction for below as a broad brush

Then we have industry reported in transit reductions on COGS of 25% followed by two further 10% - Boo didn’t disclose, Drapers did..

So overall COGS H1 could be more like £430M to £450M before the 35% ish average in transit discount decreasing working cap days even further, which of course helps FCF put aside the bottom line affect, it’s big numbers supported by Cotton down 50%

3 weeks to go to see if I am on the money - stand corrected if anyone can critique the above

Suggest the May conf call was important to watch coupled with Draper reporting COGS

Helpful for Shorts and Longs - it’s a must watch

Most of Boo’s KPI’s are measurable ve Pre & post Covid

Once we strip back Covid we can get a better picture

For example, cotton down over 50% and distribution down 90%

Work back the cost of sales and you can see where Rag trade is coming from

Hi Hex

Working on COGS @ 50% H1 being £480M @35% saving at max - we know from trade (draper) it’s 25/10/10 in transit

Appreciate it’s not definitive

# out and about, didn’t spell check apologies

Hi Hex

Yeah COGS was 46% Pre Covid

The point being we had a one off 35% reduction in transit

25/10/10 … we know this from Drapers post May

Know it’s a nuts £number of maybe £480M and Boo took some stock at the time but my view they knew what they were doing and it’s been bourne out my cotton falling 50% plus

Rag trade knows his stuff - industry wise - it’s been my take the market has missed this element

Distribution they told us in May

We touched on this yesterday

IF … Boo gets to 6% 2024 on £1.7B to £1.6B, they will be generating £100M EBITDA

Suggest they will command a 9X

Appreciate I am out of kilt with many Longs on the margin for H1 2023 but I think there is a fair chance we will hit 5.5%

Please see posts from yesterday why we have a chance

kind of helicopter view

‘Rag trade ‘knows his stuff /industry Boo is in and is a balanced poster, it’s worth a recap of his post yesterday

COGS down 35% in transit

Distribution costs down 90% - containers

This will catch the market out when Boo TU

Hex/ Wolf

As always good balanced posts

Goes back to COGS in transit slashed 35%

Shorts can’t see the obvious just yet