Member Info for Okehurst1

Only way Jeremy

We have Hex/ Wolf who can critique posts. PP /Pedro who are one of the same offer nothing, PP is just a troll

Wolf

Much easier green boxing PP and his alter ego Pedro, the poster is as thick as mince, you don’t need to read his tripe then, the individual offers nothing to the BB, by ignoring him they get isolated

Forgot to add this one yesterday

The Boo CFO was questioned on the last analyst call regarding was there an opportunity to generate further FCF via squeezing inventory ?

He mentioned they generated £100M cash last year but then said this ;

‘As mentioned, inventory is down 36% year-on-year. Our lead times are improving 3 weeks faster alone in April compared to a year ago. We've accelerated our stock turn, delivering an additional turn improvement to date.

And whilst we're pleased with the progress made in recent months, there's more opportunity ahead as we look to unlock further lead time improvements. Speed matters and shorter lead times are critical in our drive to get back to growth. The execution of our strategy and specifically, the focus on inventory turn has driven significant working capital inflows over the last year’

Put aside the combined 13% cost of sales improvements as listed on thread below

Ditto 35% off COGS in transit but we don’t know the quantum but it’s ‘ something ‘

We have the above as another category to generate FCF

Wolf did miss off the regular classic PP and his alter ego Pedro post

‘ People power you are an amazing person and a warm human being and so funny ‘

You have to laugh … PP is a funny a root canal treatment

Highly recommend green boxing PP and his alter ego Pedro

No need to read the drivel with no data supporting PP’s post

Nb what they saying

Somebody buys 2 of an item sends 1 back they will net £20M which I guess goes go to blue collar staff repackaging

The get the sizing right more often they reduce the need for customers to buy 2 of everything

Apparently test / repeat is key in this process data wise they say

Ash,

If this info helps

Boo advised analysts on the most recent conf call that with distribution costs falling - last year was a massive 23% cost of sale for Boo, as one off due to Covid ,average is under 16% - they can revert to Test / repeat model that has worked for fast fashion

This means they can eradicate errors on the manufacturing side in real time so to speak, put aside manufacturing for USA moving to South America for speed/ tariff free

Boo will generate £20M this year from charging for returns

It was £10M H2 last year

Back to the 23% cost of sales / distribution, IF a boo can return to average then on £1.6B of Rev it’s circa £100M extra cash bottom line - container prices down 90% , air freight prices down etc ..

It’s actually quite sad for PP, imagine have no investment short or long and posting the same garbage 24/7 and your only friend in the world is an imaginary one you made up that you call Pedro

Bit like Puff the magic dragon

T4G would you not consider green boxing PP and their other accounts ?

It’s the way to go and the BB just focuses on respectfully challenging posts for debate and we all win

Recommend not reading the garbage they write even though there had been a list of comical posts - too long to list but here’s a few on the last few months

PP posted a full Rudyard Kipling poem

Argued for days that Boo had lost 23% of USA total market share until it was pointed out the market size of online Apparel was $183B up $3B and Boo only did $500M USA last year - comedy

Accusing Mike Ashley of insider trading was a little gem, saying he was Shorting via derivatives whilst going Long - think the poster must have been watching the Big Short the night

The list goes on and on ….as I say either super smart and acting dim but is shorting or just a strange odd person posting misinformation sometimes 50X a day on a BB they have no financial interest in

Hex

Good balanced post as usual

If they come out with FCF+ that would go down well

Know it’s in the balance but reviewing /looking at numbers /data again from the analyst call they have a bit in the tank to play with, side note think the CFO is very good/smart

As you say they should have updated if they missed guidance

Hi Reardon

Here is a couple off the top of my head

They did a 25% in transit cut / then a further 10% and then another 10%?

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/boohoo-demands-supplier-discount

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/boohoo-group-demands-supplier-discount

It was smart business in hindsight, all post results / analysts meeting

Fraser did similar with a 20% cut

Hi Reardon will try and find / post later

PP is either super smart and playing a game as a shorter or is mentally unstable posting 50 times a day on a stock they are not invested in

Take your pick but discount to zero their posts unless your short yourself

I’ve green boxed PP it’s much better the poster is either mentally ill or shorting

It was helpful revisiting the numbers from May ditto the analyst call and then cross referencing the accounts going back to 2019

There is a combined 13% cost of sales a itemised below with 2022 specific Covid related, well worth paying the £28 to access the transcript

We also have the COGS on top, no idea what that quantum is, it was post May and we only what we know via Drapers

When we look at the FCF I think there is a fair chance they are going to surprise the market on the positive side

Any way the helicopter view is below, the link to the transcript posted yesterday and of course the accounts are public information, for anyone who wants to challenge the numbers /percentages they discussed

Green box him Wolf?

The poster is either weird / mentally ill posting 40 to 50 times in a stock he has no interest or is Shorting

Take your pick

Much easier not seeing their dribble / bull Xhit

CFO said mid 20’s for exceptional’s for full year

It’s easier( obvs) on a spread sheet rather than a BB but when you look at the targeted 13% cost of sales to go at and throw on COGS - which could be material ?

If they trim marketing H1 on top then FCF + is possible based on the analyst meeting / numbers

Last one …

Appreciate Long messages, happy to be challenged, suggest it helps the BB

With no RNS profit warning am hoping we are on target from last Mays forecast

Helicopter view cash/ FCF

£70M EBITDA - full year

Less

£85M Capex

£20M USA exceptional’s

£8M finance / legals with Rev B ( guess)

Then we work back

Administration - back to Pre Covid ?- 1.7% to be had

Distribution. 7%

COGS. 4%

# no idea on the quantum, guess work

around drapers but as Hex says what’s the £value?

Marketing £175M full year , could they have held back a bit H1?

How much of the near 13% cost of sales that they have identified will they have captured H1 , ditto Capex used

Fair chance they pull off FCF Neutral

Nb didn’t mention inventory reduction which was 36% down last year generating £100M FCF

There may be a bit to be had here

Hi T4G

Ran though the transcript again over the weekend and looked at their forecasts to analysts

The CFO says £25M for exceptional’s opening USA

£70M EBITDA they guide to

Capex 5% - Simon Bowler from Numis pushed on this one

What do we have on top if they can extract a chunk of identified cost savings below ?

Finance would be £6M ish

I can’t see anything else ? Can you ?

Worth a review of potential cost savings / what to look for in the interims , may help the BB

Administration

2019 to 2022 Boo had an average administration cost base to sales of 11.5% then last year this jumped to 13.2%

Boo advised they will be cutting people / other costs to bring Admin down

That equates to £25M to £30M of further cost saving with a reduction of 1.7% to get back to average

Distribution

If we look at the average from 2019 to 2022 this was 16.3% but 15.4% Pre Covid, we know Covid affected its margin in this category

Last year it was whopping 23% and Boo indicate this will come down to normal ex Covid

It’s a crazy number but even working on averages it’s 7%, worth, almost £100M of pure cash / margin

Marketing is protected at around 10.5% of sales - I think they may have held back a bit H1 to cover the £10M to £20M exceptional’s for USA, no data on this btw just the level of marketing appeared lower whilst they fine tuned opening USA depot

COGS - I think there are big savings here, plenty posts on this one

Weighing up the averages for the categories above and other smaller weighted ones it does identify the affect of Covid on the cost base, Boo could have a bit of bunce up their sleeve when they TU in 3 weeks time

Nb all the above is in their audited accounts