Member Info for Okehurst1

Mafioso, appreciate your not a regular on this BB, may be worth scrawling through the posts last few days,it’s all out there, our CEO has confirmed via an email that has been posted on here over the weekend that we pass the MHRA requirements.
We will soon find out tomorrow officially either way.

Well done Safy

MB, I think your post is on the money in terms of market capitalisation of ODX being ridiculously cheap.

The only area we differ is on revenue / profit per RTC test, I just can’t see it being as low as £1.50 profit from £13, based on what we know our current Covid test costs to manufacture which is around £1.60 and even allowing for distribution / marketing costs then it has to be £10, if of course the RTC as a consortium is an equitable partnership.

On 8M tests a month that’s £80M EBITA profit, close to £1B cash per annum.

Let’s hope I am right but I just can’t see where /who takes the other £8.50.

No need to comment , personal opinion ,we will soon find out one way or the other.

MU345

Agree with your volume, just think your light with the price per unit

£16 net per test we will have a much higher margin than 9% for the best antibody test in the world.

Distributors tend to take 30% in structures like this, we already know our other Covid tests costs us about £1.60 - our broker note a few weeks explained same, even if it’s a wee bit higher we could still be looking at £8 a test profit
PCR is £150 a test , the ODX test is going to crush the competition in this market, performance and price.

The RTA distribution deal is of course separate but we know that price is £13 from the Abingdon white paper last week .

Investment Banker is on the money
8M a month of tests at £10 is almost £1B a year of cash just of Covid 19 - assuming a revenue share on this test

Covid sticks being valued at up to 2X annual revenue

Has to be an RNS in morning

Good find MB

And £19!

Thanks for comments MB.

Hope am right , would be a true and fair consortium then , assuming they have shared the R&D costs it should be really .

Feel the £1.50 is a bit light considering the amount of money that has been invested to produce the gold standard triple antibody test

£13 per a test including posting / packaging to the public’s home looks about right to me, as per Abingdons white paper release last week.

Sure we will find out soon, as you say.

MB , fully agree.

What’s your take on our revenue from the test and how it’s distributed ?
If all partners of the RTC are equal and let’s assume they are then as such there must be a’ fair share ‘ policy for each member as it’s probably the only way they could agree terms, ie if it’s 30M p/m from the Government it’s 7.5M tests each to supply.

So a profit as such won’t be the mechanism to distribute the revenue it will be being the gross revenue to each member for each of their tests , less maybe distribution / marketing costs if this is being handled by CIBA

Each member of the consortium will have their own individual cost of doing business expenses including cost of capital, standard business stuff, that’s their affair.

My take is we will receive the same price as other partners and as I say less a distribution / administration cost
Could be £13 a test less a small charge per test that’s it.

Obviously it matters because Covid 19 stocks appear to be getting valued up to 2 times revenue, on 8M tests a month which is feasible then ODX will be generating over £100M a month gross, assuming they sell all at £13? And why wouldn’t they it’s the best anti body test on the market and there has been a lot of capital outlayed.

What’s your opinion ?

RegUK
‘Each member of the consortium won't be selling. The consortium will be selling as a single entity, via CIGA. the manufacturing partners, such as ODX, will receive a share of the profits - not the total profit’

It will of course be relative, usually with a contract like this then ‘ fair share ‘ is an important point.
If the Government wants 30M tests per month each member of the consortium will have their ‘ fair share’
in this case as an example 7.5M each

Which ever you cut the profit it’s irrelevant, each member of the consortium will enjoy the gross revenue less distribution / administrative costs.

With respect it won’t be a ‘ profit share ‘ the more tests you manufacture the more revenue you enjoy, it’s the only way it can work commercially, as I say ‘ fair share ‘ is the key legal phrase in a consortium that is not operating as one legal entity - not part of group of companies

All 3 mentioned are manufacturing, just need to put the information together it’s all there.

The Government couldn’t shout about the free antibody home test as the press will slaughter them if there are none to send out.

We have seen ODX raise capital for new kit, tweet they have installed same ,we know the manufacturer of the kit and how many per month each machine can produce , we know ODX can make up to 8M a month , we know the sale price and we know who they are for, the Care Homes and Hospitals, we won’t have any over for Boots etc .

Think my helicopter view on the numbers below is a reasonable estimate.

We can already see how the government are planning to distribute the antibody tests.

This is straight off the Government website for Antibody Tests , all Care Home workers can have a test sent to their home, PLUS Clinicians can request for Hospitals and Carehomes, we can assume this for patients.
The Government are providing for free.

‘ At-home antibody test kits
This is the start of the UK’s at-home antibody test kit programme.

You can get a free at-home antibody test if all of these apply:

you live in England or Wales
you’re 18 or over
you work in adult social care (England) or domiciliary care (Wales) and get paid
Clinicians will always be able to request antibody tests for patients in both hospital and social care settings if they think it’s appropriate.’

We know the RTC ABC - 19 Self administered test is the only test being backed by the Government, we know they plan to provide for free, the RTC consortium white paper advises the sale price is £13 a test .

1.5M work in care home sector .
Plus Hospitals can request for free

We then have to look at the revenue share per test ?

This may sound like a ramp buts it’s a possible fact, each member of the RTC consortium can retain the £13 from however many tests they sells, we know ODX is gearing up to manufacture 8M tests a month, we could be looking at over £100M a month of revenue for ODX with £80M a month profit - EBITA level

Appreciate this sounds a ramp but the information is out there, the cost of the kit will be no more than £3 and £10 per test profit.

Safy, fully agree.

Suggest some of the PI’s making these comment need to do some research before they buy shares so the understand what they are investing in.

The WHO announced test requires medical supervision and is a Swob based, 15 minute wait , 1 nurse conducting 4 an hour or there are lab technicians taking the Swobs off the nurses ,it’s not even relevant to the Omega self administered test.

PL75,

Agree with your sentiment but from a timescale point of view it does appear sales may not commence until December at the earliest ?

What’s your view ?

AW, am a firm holder of Avacta ,I don’t always agree with the tone of your messages, they can tend to be overtly negative even with positive news from the Company.

However I have to concede your timeline is looking on the money, in fact in hindsight it was probably too positive as it’s looking more like end of December , early 2021 before we have tests to sell.

Maybe try and not rub it in.

Miles,
I am a holder of Avacta as well as smaller stake in ODX which is an excellent UK Engineering business.
Fully agree with your comments re ;Avacta/ ODX

Nkb100

It’s fair comment but ODX could be generating £30M p/a plus EBITA from manufacturing and its other potential income streams.

What is the £value of the business if it is producing 2M LFT tests a month and Covid 19 testing is around longer than we think ? If ODX could generate the £30M p/a EBITA based on £60M ARR being 2M tests a month @ £2.50 each gross, then I think ODX is under valued today but I suspect the market will value all the Covid stocks at little more than accumulated cash value from Covid 19 sales specifically plus the sum of the remaining parts of the business.

What’s your view ?

Nasel swab - do your research properly

I think ODX are in a good position either way , Saliva based antigen or blood based antibodies
Same be it Mologic or Avacta or another, it kind of doesn’t matter to ODX who gets approval first, ODX will cut a supply deal with whoever is first past the post .

The LFT bulk manufactured price is rumoured to be £2.50 each, I posted my opinion on this yesterday in terms of potential EBITA

ODX is sitting pretty to land contracts with whoever, it will only be restrained by manufacturing capacity and the Capex return risk / reward