Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi Monk ,
I posted this for your input about 2.40pm - got lost in the

Hi Monk
What’s your view on < 300pg/ml as quoted by Alister

If was it was say sub 100pg/ml it may yield false negatives as it’s CT value would be around 25?
Which is the problem with PCR ?

We drop too low we get false negatives, so to identify someone at their most infectious the Goldilocks pg/ml is somewhere around 150pg/ml to achieve say 36ct - that’s my take what do you think ?

Where am coming from this angle, Alister knows his range to get the test over the line, he’s had enough time on it , he may have taken a view and sent the nasal test to Porton Down last week if 300pg/ml is the lowest threshold and we are in the hat for £900M tender ?

Any views ?

Monk
Forgot to add, there are reports of Innova only being at 50% accurancy - even less
As such we could assume they are at <100pg /ml with a CT range of 20 something to 28 , hence their 50% false positives ?
On this range they would be more like 33% accurate but I am being generous at the 50%

The more I look at this the more I think Alister knows he’s got this covered and has submitted to Porton Down last week, he knows the ‘ zone ‘ to be in , the Avacta team will have been all over the Innova test.

I think they have cracked it,I really do.

Hi Monk
What’s your view on < 300pg/ml as quoted by Alister

If was it was say sub 100pg/ml it may yield false negatives as it’s CT value would be around 25?
Which is the problem with PCR ?

We drop too low we get false negatives, so to identify someone at their most infectious the Goldilocks pg/ml is somewhere around 150pg/ml to achieve say 36ct - that’s my take what do you think ?

Where am coming from this angle, Alister knows his range to get the test over the line, he’s had enough time on it , he may have taken a view and sent the nasal test to Porton Down last week if 300pg/ml is the lowest threshold and we are in the hat for £900M tender ?

Any views ?

Agent B , fully agree and not 100% in the bag

This will worry anyone shorting Avacta, their upside is maybe 50p a share and a doubling of their money and for that they need everything not to work In the Avacta tool box, LFT / BAM’s/Bruker

IF and it’s a big IF Avacta are in the hat for this one and they landed a contract they could struggle to close their Short position without paying a costly price, the downside for them is more than 100%

Morning Sun
Appreciate the RNS was not clear but the nasal test has effectively gone to TT ( it’s been frozen )and we have to presume the clinical trials is phase 3 Porton Down - it has to be

There is a fair possibility - I agree it’s not 100% - that Porton Down will be quick with their side and Avacta have managed to submit its test for the futility test
What we don’t know is when Avacta sent their test to Porton Down ? It’s a key factor, they have had months on this l.
For LT shareholders it’s a win win if this is the case , for anyone shorting especially via CFD’s it’s a scary development for them.

MFM,
I agree, Alister needs to confirm we have technically completed TT - which we must have for the nasel Swob
Ditto the clinical trials are at Porton Down - it’s important where / who is conducting the clinical trials

Poundcake,

I think it’s this side of Xmas , it’s not the saliva test as we all expected months ago but a self administered less unobtrusive nasel Swob - measured against PCR
This will be the LFT that is rolled out

We know Avacta will also clinically trial the saliva test in one form or another be that under the tongue / gums but that’s not what BBI will be gearing up to manufacture Alister has shown us the kit, it’s just his ego/ belief he can deliver the saliva test that he is still pursuing this agenda, it’s been difficult for him to give up.

Thankfully from a commercial point of view we now have test to complete the clinical tests

MB, you may be correct and good debate between us as always.

My personal view, has been for a while, Avacta would move to a self administered , less intrusive test than the PCR , being their own Swob test.

I don’t think Avacta will be able to get - shall we say the direct - saliva test to work outside a Lab, but they will with the Swob.

Today’s RNS more or less confirmed that, BBI will fine tune the engineering, now the TT for the Swob has been passed over to them, Avacta will complete clinical trials in parallel, which we know will be stage 3 Porton Down.
The question is how long will that take? It’s subjective of course but I think this side of xmas and we at ODX get the 10M a month order.

RegUK
Agree with your comments below

As a holder of ODX - and Avacta - I think our opportunity will be making the Avacta antigen test

BBI are decent engineer and would not be fine tuning so to speak the manufacturing processes , if it was all in-house Avacta to be honest I would have some doubts on the timeline,but now that we have a 3rd party investing time / money it provides some comfort the sensitivity of the test is as reported <300pg/ml

Let’s assume the test works -,BBI give us comfort and in affect TT has now happened.

Where does that leave ODX?

ODX will get an order to make these tests, BBI will transfer the design once clinically validated and we get our 2.5M a week as we gear up.

Timescale - this is subjective ,I appreciate that, but I think we will have the order from Avacta officially this side of Xmas/ early January 2021

This is not a cross ramp of Avacta but their CEO released this video today, I genuinely think ODX manufacturing antigen LFT’s is linked with Avacta.

https://avacta.wistia.com/medias/30w6vgnvmg

‘The performance of the test with clinical samples will now be evaluated as a precursor to a much larger clinical study with COVID-19 patients of known viral load to determine the clinical sensitivity of the test. In parallel BBI Solutions is working to finalise and validate the manufacturing process so that the Group can carry out a full clinical validation on the final product to support the regulatory approval process’

Fair to say this was the most important paragraph of the RNS, in affect the TT has happened, BBI will finalise the manufacturing process, whilst Avacta completes the clinical validation , which we can assume is via Porton Down - in parallel

It’s how long will it take at Porton Down to pass stage 3?
That’s what we don’t know? However ...

BBI know their stuff, they must see that the test works, otherwise why would they continue ?
Alister has disclosed the sensitivity range is <300 pg/ml
and we can assume this is the ‘ Goldilocks’ zone target so to speak he talks about to identify high viral load carriers.

Put aside BAM’s / Cancer treatment

You take a view will Alister deliver based on what we now know? Yes he over promised on his timescales as he underestimated the task of producing a pure saliva based Covid test - without a swob to collect - but he has finally delivered a test that works, it just needs validating.

As I say would BBI continue if they didn’t think it works?

If you are a LTH and believe in the Company the share price today is irrelevant, same way within the next 4 weeks Avacta announce commercial deals with BAM’s / ditto confirm manufacturing of the LFT with Government contracts / overseas licensing deals on both and to put a number on it the share price moves to £2 , its irrelevant if you are holding for the journey.

If you are trading the share using CFD’s then it’s different position to be in of course.

Good spot Mr Pr

Big Al would have moved house 3 times

Bruker
BAM’s
T&T

Take your pick or all 3

Agree, we need our test out there but it has to be accurate.

The Innova Chinese test has come in for criticism for only being 50% accurate outside the Lab, same with the test below the data is not peer reviewed.

Full confidence in the Avacta team that they will deliver.

Saliva into a pipette vs saliva via a Swob from around the gums, it doesn’t really matter, as long as it is self administered and it works then it’s fine.

Trek
Don’t think it matters, it’s just a delivery taking saliva from around the gums to the LFT via a Swob vs saliva into a pipette then onto the LFT , same end result saliva on the LFT but the former is more consistent.

It’s not material, same result, don’t think it matters either way.

Pigster

The issue will be around the consistency of the saliva coupled with the reagent / buffer and paper.
As time has passed its looking like an impossible task and Sir Al has had to make a call.
Think of it as a delivery mechanism via the Swob vs pippete, it’s the same end result of placing saliva onto the LFT, makes no odds.

He no longer needs Klaus by the looks of it .

Benben

Part of my point, they may not need Cytiva for the mouth / nasel Swob LFT

Cytiva no longer on the web site

I didn’t save the link but a few months ago one of the most experienced USA diagnostics CEO’s came out and said they were pulling out of the direct saliva antigen LFT as it couldn’t be accomplished as the consistency of the saliva was difficult to gauge.

I’ve been thinking for a while we could move to a Swob around the gums and even self administered part way up our nostril - at a comfortable level not like the PCR test

This all makes sense of why we have had a delay, Sir Al has had to change horses mid race but it looks like he’s cracked it and the website has been corrected accordingly, in anticipation of the news.

We may well very close now.