Member Info for Okehurst1

Monkshood.
Partly agree and hindsight being a wonderful thing, however the strategy around Covid 19 has been clear, BAM’s and a POC self administered Antigen Test.

A commercial deal with BAM’s has to be close, an RNS that announces a revenue deal will be the first part of the strategy completed.
We then await the completion of the LFT.

‘ Okehurst I think you need to go back to school mate. It’s doesn’t say you need a professional or kit at all. Try reading it slowly next time...

This is Avacta for sure!’

Updated yesterday by the Government

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/lateral-flow-devices-results

It’s not Avacta, there are only 3no tests past stage 3 assessment.

It’s possibly Innova who have just been awarded a £130M plus contract, the Government won’t award a contract until the test provider completes stage 3 successfully.

All 3 tests require medical supervision, 2 are Swob , 1 saliva but this is linked to the Abbott test - which we have discussed in this Board

None of the above are competitors to Avacta once we get the LFT to stage 3

For ref to help your research, there are only 15 tests left on the assessment programme from 172 that appear to have started the process, via another Government web site updated yesterday

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/protocol-for-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

Again updated yesterday
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/protocol-for-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

It appears there are just 15 tests left out of 172 tests that started.
Assume 12 plus the 3 below ?

If Mologic are still in the mix they must be in Stage 1 or 2, by the looks of things they would need to clear stage 3 to enjoy a roll out outside clinical trials.

Updated yesterday

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/lateral-flow-devices-results

There are only 3no lateral flow device tests that have reached stage 3.
2 of which are swob, the other being the Abbott test by default In partnership with SD Biosensor.
All 3 require a medical professional of sorts to administer and are antigen tests.

‘No professional or kit required, £5 doesn’t sound too expensive to me’

No your wrong , requires a professional to administer plus kit to process the result, do your research .

Problem is you still require a medical professional to administer plus a piece of kit to process the result.

It’s going to be expensive overall.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8865039/Volunteer-AstraZenecas-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-dies-Brazil.html

USA have stopped all work on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, apparently after someone on the trials was paralysed after being given it, then a healthy Doctor in Brazil on the same trials strangely dies just 28.

This was my point yesterday.

If we are deemed to be selling our product too cheaply an operator will snap up ODX - I agree with a 50% share uplift will take out this business

The new owners will just increase prices to fund the transaction - it’s how it works
The tax on the profits of ODX are then not possibly enjoyed by the U.K, we see this time and time again.

I don’t think a takeover is a good thing for the Company/ UK , ODX is an engineering gem, it needs to make a fair profit from the Government in comparison to other tests being sold to them, reinvest the proceeds and ramp up manufacturing capacity including R&D/ Training , especially for young people.

The share price then reflects this investment and it makes it more expensive for an operator to buy ODX on the cheap.

As it stands today the RTC can’t even sell its products for a higher margin to a 3rd party without the consent of the Government.

We need ODX to earn the same pro rata profits as other overseas companies are enjoying from our Government or at least be allowed to sell them into the open market.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8865733/1-3bn-High-Court-challenge-lucrative-Test-Trace-contracts-launched.html

ODX is an UK engineering success story, LTH have nothing to worry about, even if Colin confirms the profit per RTC/ Visitect test is only slightly above 75p each we will still make a decent profit based on volume.

I am particularly interested - as many of us are - who is enjoying the balance of income off the commercial sales which are being marketed at £16 ( RTC) to £19( Visitect) - still not confirmed UK Government price.

Ok we are getting a couple of quid gross a test but it doesn’t seem much for our engineering skills/ expertise/ capital expenditure funded recently by shareholders, it’s fair comment if the sale price to our Government is lower and dictating our own margins but on the commercial sales?

Hopefully Colin explains all next week.

So Omega shareholders fund the Capex to make the test and we generate a couple of quid gross and 75p profit

Wonder who makes the most from the £25 after the VAT man

It’s irrelevant where the server is based - in this case

The company who was awarded the £119M order from the Government was set up a few months ago with £100 share capital and it appears to have 1 employee operating from a serviced office and it’s basically a distributor for Dante, which is where the profits will be going back to - who knows where their IP is located but the U.K. won’t get getting the Corporation tax

It appears Dante at the same time can sell test kits to the U.K. public direct without MHRC approvals.

Let’s not forget Dante just received a £119M contract off the UK Government
It appears the same company is by passing MHRC

‘This was never about ripping people off. It is about solving a global health issue and making an honest profit. And that honest profit will be significant and reap huge rewards for us.’

For us shareholders it’s all about return on capital employed , yes we may invest ethically but it’s about Capital return so we will have to agree to disagree on certain parts of your comments above.

If the market views Omega is not maximising it’s returns the share price will reflect this - as it is today

Omega then leaves itself open to a takeover as an operator would take the view they have scope to increase prices.

I agree on the price range £10 to £20, thats where it will be
for big orders.

It does appear the U.K. Government are throwing tax payers money at expensive un - trialled overseas tests and allowing home testing through the back door, these same companies then build a cash pile to acquire business’s like Omega on the cheap and the U.K. loses yet another manufacturer paying corporation tax in the UK.

Fully agree, that’s my thought process now.

It’s either he is one canny boy and didn’t want to show his hand on the profits to be made - when tendering

Or it’s worse case, Omega become a high volume low price manufacturer and the smart money makes a lot £more per test for less capital employed, they don’t require clinical trials, they can sell into U.K. Homes with an unproven test
and bag £43 net or nearly double that to £80 net if you want to know within 24hrs

I am hoping Colin is a bit more savvy than the Finncap forecasts on the profit per test are indicating - even Colin himself saying ‘ slightly ‘ higher so it’s not encouraging.

Omega have Visitect and RTC and all we make in profit is
75 pence per test for either ( give or take )and we have other tests out there with no UK clinical trial data being purchased for what appears to be big money by the U.K. Government and the same operators selling home antibody tests from £58 and you have to wait a few days for the result.

Just hoping Colin has not had his kilt pulled down here

These guys are connected to the 1 man band below who landed a £119M contract yesterday.

http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737280080

Dante charging £58 for an anti body Home testing kit takes a few days to get the results ,if you can afford it they will do you a 24 hour turnaround for £98

What did Finncap say we are going to make on our triple antibody test ? 75 pence a test, something not right?

https://dantelabs.co.uk/collections/covid-19-home-test-kit

http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737214508

Good find Chris , the £13 for the RTC ABC test is looking possible