Member Info for Okehurst1

I can almost feel the love between MFM & Pl75

T&T must be close and it has to be Swob - but as you Guys say ‘ who cares ‘

Comparing PCR and Antigen tests is not an exact science.

If this helps antigen testing — named for the viral proteins, or antigens, that the test detects — is unlike lab-based, molecular PCR tests, which detect snippets of the virus’s genetic material, antigen tests are less sensitive because they can only detect samples with a higher viral load.

This is the crux of the Avacta test, it will pick up a higher viral load ,this is key to identifying people who are the most infectious.
This is where the needle in the hay stack comes into play, its quite possible Avacta have been struggling to achieve with saliva on its own, they have in turn lost 2 months trying to perfect and eventually realising they couldn’t technically produce this test they adapted the Swob around the gums and possibly self administered into the bottom section of the nose.

We will of course soon find out but I suspect the test works and they are just finalising TT.

Feels like it ...

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425

Interesting article from the BMJ

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

Hi MB,
So even on 200k a week it’s nearly £8M a year gross profit just from antibody testing.

As you previously pointed out on 10M p/m antigen tests - assuming we can ramp up capacity which looks like it’s happening - even for 18 months to 2 years @ £2 a test gross profit
There is £500M combined gross profit over 24 month assuming 2 years antigen / plus antibody
This is discounting Food Tolerance/ HIV testing to Zero

M/cap today just £80M, Omega is so undervalued.

Once the news breaks we will back to YTD highs .

Psycho ( Jon Bell)

... pass our triple antibody test to the BMJ and say ‘ tell us how good our own one is ?’

We may as well if this how it now works?

We don’t need Abingdon , we have a triple antibody, the only one in the world, let’s sell that one to the Government if it beats the RTC test ? At just 75p gross profit we may make more selling our own ?

Wonder if this scuppers their expected IPO ?
There risk factor page in the prospectus will be an interesting read?

Would Also like to put this into prospective from a profit / loss point of view, we were only making 75p a test , Abingdon were taking the rump of the cash.

Whoever it be , Mologic or Avacta Antigen test , thats where we will make our money.

I personally have faith in Omega/ RTC and the quality of their antibody test, The Guardian does tend to knock anything the Government does - it’s not hard to though

The short term issue for ODX -share price wise -with the RTC antibody test was the profit of just .75p per test, it left us exposed with Abingdon running off with the rump - to prime their IPO ?

It’s going to go 2 ways for ODX,

With the m/cap so low Abingdon or another will try snap it up on the cheap the next 6 months , it’s an excellent engineering business but fair to say lacks the ability/ skill see to sell it’s products - based on the recent disclosed sales numbers

However we get the 10M of (Antigen )tests per month Colin intimates and at the same time we secure a better gross profit per test and we bring our average profit to £2 per test , the share price rises and Omega has a chance to remain independent .

Forgot to say, worth checking Miles out, apparently he’s a serial investor on AIM

Miles McNulty just posted on Avacta BB

It is true. AIM listing. Raising minimum £20m, with at least £15m of it going towards expansion of LFT manufacturing capacity.

It looks like the Chinese test via Innova and their £100 company set up a few months ago and who’s registered office is a semi detached house in England with just 1 employee may be looking a bit suspect ?

Pl75/ Zz

Like yourselves I have faith in the Avacta team to deliver, so based on this belief.

It looks like we are getting a 90M per month order from UK government as indicated by Alister ,let’s assume we match Innova price - they are more expensive due to Government paying for their freight, this may change though, but let’s stick with their £15 price

Let’s assume £4 for the LFT - maybe £more but let’s go with £4 for this example

We gross £1B a month Pre tax then throw X amount of months including stock building by the government
and let’s say 18 months , £18B
Could be 12 months but you take a view.

It feels absurd to suggest this level of cash generation when our m/cap less cash in hand is £225M

BAM’s /Bruker revenue not included ,
ditto the future revenue of any cancer treatment / the Affirmer IP that’s all on top

On this basis I think PL75’s price target looks reasonable, all this doesn’t include licensing the LFT tech around the world

One other consideration, I actually think the news of a vaccine is quite good for Avacta in a perverse way , we know how long it takes to develop an antigen LFT and we know how many Companies worldwide are in the process, there are not many, if the market thinks the timeline is 2 years max then it may deter others to enter our specialist market, we get 18months to 2 years and max the cash

The share price will eventually reflect this post tax cash on the balance sheet and as I say cancer treatments / Affirmer is for free on top.

Appreciate it’s a bullish view but post Porton Down and from information disclosed its a reasonable assumption.

Pl75, think your spot on, all points.

If you hold Avacta you are here for the overnight multibagger, we all know the risks - we know it’s not risk free until we get that RNS but we believe in the Avacta management getting the LFT over the line
I think we can say BAM’s is closer to confirmation

Cautious, yes good balanced post .

I think you are right, this has Innova all over it as they are the only antigen we know of who have cleared Porton Down - v frustrating

It looks like BAM’s is coming first for Avacta with the LFT in Q1 as hinted by our CEO.
I have faith the Avavta LFT will work it’s just the delivery of the saliva ? Is via a Swob or pippete onto the LFT

RegUK,

Think your right, short term overseas contract.- v frustrating
The Government must be holding out for another solution than buying from China, only Innova can go for this one, as they have cleared Porton Down ,they must laughing their heads off in China and their U.K. registered office manned by one man and dog in the semi detached house

Excellent post Entangled

Hi Pigster

I think hospitals can just use their existing Bruker kit, at which point it makes the Avacta offering extremely attractive

Worth noting, this is separate to the trial in association with Bruker USA, that would a serious deal if we can pull off.

https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-launches-clinical-trial-for-validation-of-point-of-care-copd-exacerbation-alert-system/

It may possibly be Mologic, they have an ongoing relationship with Leicester University?