Member Info for Okehurst1

As Merchant Banker has pointed out, we are ramping up to 10M a month of tests and possibly @ £2 a test gross profit.

We will make more profit from Antigen tests then the RTC antibody, Omega may prioritise manufacturing towards Antigen from whoever gives us the orders then switch to antibodies as and when required, possibly in early Summer 2021 as in line with a vaccine possibly, then switch back to Antigen ready for Autumn 2021.

Be it Antigen or antibodies , whichever tech, RTA, Moligic or Avacta, it just doesn’t materially matter to Omega.

With cash in the bank, manufacturing capacity being increased, a foot in each Test ( tech ) Omega is in a good position.

Good point Monk

You wouldn’t need LFT’s, just put the finished solution into a simple test tube , add saliva, shake up, maybe change colour when the Affirmer catches the spike?

Monk, could the technical issues that have had to be considered been more around the buffer solution /saliva, rather than tracking the RNA genetic mutation ? The latter being important but the lesser of the two.

Listening to Klaus this week it does highlight just how complexed the process actually is, especially with the density of the buffer and people’s different consistency of saliva and of course the temperature / humidity of the location the test is being taken , ie if it’s too thick the Affirmer may not pick up the spike protein of C19 in say the early days of infection we are targeting ditto not withstanding the paper as well, this has to be considered, the buffer needs to flow just the right amount?

Almost Goldilocks style fine tuning.

What’s your thoughts on this thesis?

Monk... what a thought !
A mutant SARs- COV- 2 variant

There’s a movie in that one

Monkshood, good post

Is it fair to say as it’s RNA we can watch the evolution of SARS-Cov -2 in real time, so to speak ?

Thanks MB

‘2.5m tests is worth around £260m gross profit at £2 per test ‘

MB, thanks for your thoughts, much appreciated.

How do you see the break down of the £2 profit per test
Is that an average across all tests.
With only 75p profit per test for RTC will we be placing all our spare capacity towards Antigen- mologic or avacta

I know your not a ramper of the profit per test so your opinion matters.

I am an investor in both ODX & Avacta
Whilst our ODX presentation was being broadcast there was a technical webinar via David Wilson of Avacta.
He made an interesting point regarding ‘ sovereign tests ‘

It does appear the Government have Avacta as the sovereign test for Antigen to compliment the RTC Antibody test - maybe wrong but it’s pointing in that direction, strange comment for him to make.?

Personally I think ODX will make the same gross revenue off either and Colin has suggested there is more profit from the Antigen test - other tests.

https://twitter.com/buy_buy_bye/status/1321519187014111233?s=20

Was live 7am this morning with Q&A, they usually post on line later in day.

Cytiva stressed just how difficult it is to produce/ manufacture a self administered LFT.

ODX are in a good position -sadly Covid 19 is not going away - they have specialist engineering skills and will ramp up manufacturing to produce whichever tests are successful.

Long term shareholders have nothing to worry, to get an idea of the entry level to manufacture LFT’s it’s worth listening to today’s presentation.

https://events.labroots.com/event/DiagnosticsVirtualSummitAglobalperspective/en-us#!/Auditorium/n890690

In the short term ODX has become an arbitrage play on Antigen / Antibody tests and who gets their Antigen test to the market first , Mologic or Avacta, ODX will manufacture for either / if not both.
Then it’s just about volume / gross revenue & margin

RTC Antibody test is in the bag and manufacturing being ramped up

Short term movement of the share is irrelevant for LTH’s

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/all-in-push-for-vaccine-in-u-s-raises-risk-virus-will-linger

PL75
Your on the money.
BAM’s first maybe ?

Agree.

Testing is here for years.

Fully agree MF , understand the frustration, think all of us LTH’s do - even though we have enjoyed a fantastic share price rise.

Fingers crossed as you say.

MF, think the UK RTC ( Consortium) tied up the antibody tests, even today they don’t have MHRA clearance - suggest nearer than Avacta though !

Suggest we are where we are now, we get good news on Revenue for Elisa / BAM’s and 50% of Avacta’s plan over Covid 19 testing will have come to fruition and we then have more confidence on the antigen self administered test being successful.

It does appear we are last man standing worldwide with our test, everyone of note has pulled out, it will be some feat if Avacta nail it, from a shareholder point it’s high risk high reward, think we can all agree on this point.

This is just the Flu vaccine having issues- sadly 25 people have died as a result already

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/doctors-in-south-korea-call-for-flu-vaccinations-to-be-paused-after-25-deaths

MF, understand your frustration but maybe look at it a different way

I don’t think we can compare like for like on a straight line approach, no need to list all the issues of producing a safe vaccine that the public will take in their masses vs producing a self administered saliva test, both are difficult, no one has yet to deliver either.

However we could see news on Elisa or BAM’s that will generate serious revenues for Avacta which result in a share price jump, it then takes the heat off and the Company just get on and deliver the test the country / world requires to for some sort of normality to return.

Let’s hope we get some good news this week

Thanks Monkshead that was my thoughts as well

Monkshood,
What’s your view on the BAM’s timeline in terms of a commercial deal ?
Reading the Bruker note published in September it looked to me they had already completed their trials as such - in the main and it works.

What’s stopping Bruker switching to use the Affirmer ? Avacta don’t need UK approval for USA and it appears the FDA are pretty flexible at the moment anything Covid.

Any thoughts ?

PL75,

Agree it’s not Avacta.

The Abbott test requires the kit from BioSensor plus the cost of a trained medical person ,it’s not like for like to a self administered LFT, the Innova test is Swob with LFT and the disclosed contract value appears to be £15 per test plus the cost of the trained medic.