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So from tomorrow morning we are generating £1.6M to £1.8M Gross profit a month via Abingdon / RTC
We know capacity is increasing Q1 2021 to 10M antibody tests a month so £8M a month gross

Switch 10M capacity to Antigen tests - for 2 years @ £2.50 which is the value/ gross profit we think per test, as identified by Merchant Banker - £25M a month

£600M Gross profit next 24 months looks about right

Omega has to be one of the most undervalued stocks on the market today

Speculating that like Avacta the Mologic Saliva test has been challenging, however using lamp technology - not really studied how this works - they are still in development phase ?
They may however be close with a nasopharyngeal test?

Appreciate this was covered yesterday but it does highlight whoever delivers an accurate nasal test for home use takes the market.

I can’t find any other data on the S&S of the Mologic / Lamp JV via Glasgow University .

Mologic have a good track record/ decent British Company

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340441583_Detecting_SARS-CoV-2_at_point_of_care_Preliminary_data_comparing_Loop-mediated_isothermal_amplification_LAMP_to_PCR

Travel - Light
How much of the test was carried out by a medical proffesional?

Scardey-cat
Agree, it my thoughts.

The basic buffer with a tweaked reagent, the diagnostic industry will know what paper / film Is best and then pretty much every man and his dog ( Innova ) can buy into the composition solution, insert into an LFT and away they go.
Innova / Biotek , lots of Chinese companies peddling the same kit solution - lets be fair it looks like it works if administered by a medical professional

The problem for the home self administered market it doesn’t work as they require a high concentration of mucus to achieve a high accuracy and as you say this is unpleasant and the general public won’t on mass manage the nasopharyngeal swob effectively.

It’s becoming clearer why it’s taken Avacta longer than Alister first thought but it’s looking likely they have cracked it- soon find out, if 90% plus for home they take the worldwide market.

On the point of overseas sales, suggest just license the buffer/reagent / film / Affirmers and let others put It in their LFT’s and sell to their / other governments,has to be the smartest model.

Bump again for Girlupnorth , top find.

Alister mentions in his video the 300pg/ml being basically the highest threshold, is that just for Nasal / Saliva ?Which from what we do know are placed in their own grouping by the Government? Nasopharyngeal tests then have their own criteria? 400pg or 500pg/ml ? We are not privy to this ?
But it looks like it is .
I missed this one completely.

That would partly explain why the Innova test works when administered by a medically trained person but then falls to 57% when the public self test themselves.

The buffer/reagent / film is a set composite solution, it will be for Avacta as well but it has its Affirmers which basically sit within the same, so the Chinese buffer - which I think is one that is generic with no IP - cant identify high viral loads in the 5 days of being at the most infectious.

As an example it’s like looking for a needle in a haystack, the fixed reagent / buffer / film (it sits on ) is a liquid mass, but unless there is something within that mass that can ‘move ‘then the buffer will only identify what it’s set to identify, in affect it can’t pivot , it requires a concentrated amount of mucus which it gets from the nasopharyngeal Swob.
There is no real IP in the buffer/ reagent itself, I reckon even Avacta just buy that in, the reagent is slightly more bespoke but no great shakes and that’s why we see tests coming out each day, it’s basically the same test / criteria.

This is why no one in the world has produced a successful home test, ‘if ‘the Affirmer technology works then Avacta have the market to themselves ,the Chinese test is technically not suitable for the general public for home self administered testing, it just won’t work.

Girlupnorth

Thanks for sharing, nice bit of research.

In affect Avacta could confirm CE accreditation next week to sell to professionals as BBI could in theory commence manufacturing?

Typo apologies Afama

Adams, according to bmj - who have peer reviewed - once the Innova test is self administered the result drops to 57%
Toss of the coin if the test works or not.
Higher when medically trained staff use it but this not for home use

In4pin

Worth reviewing the Abbott test, put aside you need a medical professional to administer https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2066

Worth focusing on what day of infection Abbott/ Roche pick up the virus, these tests are not accurate picking up antigens on the days we are at our most infectious.

That’s the key to the testing market, find out who is infectiousness on the few days - and it’s not many - that their viral load is between 1.10E.05 to 7.10E.05

As I say this may be for only 5 days or so and then viral load has dropped, Abbot looks like it’s decent picking up the virus when we are no longer infectious but that’s not going to stop the spread of Covid 19 , we will back to square 1 with another lockdown.

Innova have gone the other way, they are targeting the sweet spot but they can’t hit it, hence 57% accuracy for Self administered .

Innova have a test and medically trained staff will get the best out of it and if they are testing themselves every day they will have a chance to catch the spike eventually.

Avacta are targeting the same days / same viral load but with a much higher sensitivity for the general home use market but say test every 3 days/ twice a week in an unobtrusive manner.

Of course we don’t have a test out there yet and it’s subjective will we beat Innova / Abbott ? If we hit 90% to their 57% (for home with no medical person involved ) it goes without saying they are finished in the market place, they all are including Biozek ( another Chinese test ) I think all of these tests are basically using the same buffer/ reagent /paper there is no IP in play here for them.

Anyway we will find out next week

Wyndrum,

I wonder if Avacta sent the test last week ? Alister would of course have been ready to RNS the news and at this point in time he thought saliva was not going to happen, however around the same time something happened on the positive side with Saliva test to keep it alive within Avacta’s business model?

This resulted is very awkward opaque RNS ?
My view is the nasal test works, thats a given, only health workers will receive the Innova test as it’s nasopharyngeal.
Avacta will be the general public home test as unobtrusive.

I agree there are holes in this theory but something doesn’t stack , I guess we will know more next week or so but we could get an update earlier than we think .

Antigens have a small window to identify viral loads and they need the viral load to build
It’s looking like 1.10e + 05 cp/ ml viral load to maybe 7.10e+05 cp/ml viral load is the range ‘ sweet ‘ spot

Outside that Antigen test accuracy drops off - that’s fine we only want to identify when infectious

On reflection maybe I am out with the > 36ct and it’s 28ct to 30ct but I think the 150pg/ml is near the mark

Avacta scientists will know what the viral load ‘sweet ‘ spot is and will have identified the correct quantity of reagent / buffer/ Affirmers to pick up the same.

Antigen Reagents / buffers are what they are - the film / paper they run across is important as well of course

It does feel it’s only the Affirmers that stand Avacta apart - assume this works, for what’s it worth I think it does

MB, we get to the same £gross profit numbers per month give or take - think you had a typo but get your drift , agree on your share price target / sentiment

I was expecting the antigen test to be slightly more expensive to manufacture due to the reagent / buffer

Cant see any one being reckless enough to short the stock and as you say why would anyone sell these shares at 40p?

Hi MB
Good post

What’s your ballpark view on the Antigen test total cost completed? My take is £4 plus gross profit of £2 ?
Hence our £20M a month gross profit just from Antigen.
This will be standalone and not within the RTC with the order from Mologic/ whoever?

Colin has indicated expanding capacity, he does so to bring on board our RTC antibody test quota in line with the vaccine, maybe Q2 2021

What’s your take on above £numbers ,

Apologies should have included the link to the BMJ report

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469

If BMJ/ Jon Deeks thinks Innova Test is only 50% accurate at best for home use - as per their peer review of the data, they say the test is very poor when the none medically trained administer themselves.

So as regards a Wish list price per test placed in a tender document by a civil servant what would the government do if the Avacta test was priced at say £10?

Lest assume for this example Avacta becomes the best test In the market ,do the Government go with a cheap Chinese test which gives only 50% accuracy for self use and risks lives / probably results in a 3rd lockdown or avoid both and pay more for a better test, support UK manufacturing and recoup 50% plus of the money back via taxes Avacta pays back to the government, be that paye / corporation tax , income tax.

We also have to consider the U.K. manufactures of the LFT who themselves are making a big investment themselves in regards their own capacity, they won’t be paying their staff £10,000 p/a either.

The average salary in Chinese cities is £10,000, there appears to be no regard for intellectual property in the country , who funded the Chinese test? Was it the Chinese Goverment ? Why was the UK office of Innova only set up a few months ago in what looks like on Google Earth a semi detached house and having just 1 employee plus what looks like a small office in London.

The USA hedge fund who have funded the Innova operation are they booking the profits in the U.K.? It’s doubtful ?

It doesn’t feel like an equal playing field to me?

MB.

I agree with you, 10M antigen tests a month @£2 gross and we are valued at just 4 months gross profit - once that news breaks

Similar to yourself I am now LTH , the short term share price is just a number at a fixed point in time, if someone is trading it’s a different view point of course.

The only opinion we differ on us is for whom we will make the antigen LFT’s for, guess we will know for sure the next few weeks, it will be an interesting announcement.

Monk,

That was my thought process, via testing the Innova product they found the sweet spot using the Swob,
It’s < 150 pg /ml to achieve 36ct.
Alister mentioned he wouldn't disclose the figure.

It’s important because it may only be the Affirmers that can pick up the spike in this range, so Innova who are just using a reagent / buffer won’t have the flexibility to fine tune, it is what it is for them.

Thanks Monk

My call , the Avacta team have had their hands on the Innova test - not difficukt to do, they where selling them on line via Italy since early October

The Avacta team ran their tests, picked up on the poor result, the Innova test won’t pick from early 20’s CT to late 20’s CT on < 100pg/ml , it just can’t do.

Alister knows this, Avacta have set their’s at <150pg/ml
this will give him the 36ct required ,
he’s quoted < 300pg/ml but that’s not his final number, it’s a sprat.

It’s kind of perverse but Innova selling their test in September via a CE license has been very helpful.
I think the Avacta test went to Porton last week, not this week.

He’s cracked it and perversely thanks to Innova

And this one ..

Monk
Forgot to add, there are reports of Innova only being at 50% accurancy - even less
As such we could assume they are at <100pg /ml with a CT range of 20 something to 28 , hence their 50% false positives ?
On this range they would be more like 33% accurate but I am being generous at the 50%

The more I look at this the more I think Alister knows he’s got this covered and has submitted to Porton Down last week, he knows the ‘ zone ‘ to be in , the Avacta team will have been all over the Innova test.

I think they have cracked it,I really do.