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Radio 2 - Jeremy Vine Show just...

Had a reporter at a test centre, unfortunately it’s a Swob at the back of the throat/ up the nose administered via an army medic and then presented onto the LFT.

Looks like it’s the Chinese test via Innova

There is a worldwide shortage of LFT’s with potential gazumping, - so the Government department who have just spent circa $600M to fly them in from China has advised

Innova are being paid £15 for their antigen LFT plus there is the cost of the medical professional on top with their test.

The Avacta CEO has also previously hinted at £12.50 to £15 a test

Let’s hope we find out soon

Vegas, I believe in the company and the product but we have to trust in the Board to secure a market rate that reflects the years of research into the Affirmer Tech itself and the risk capital to get us this far, just pointing out £5 is not going to cut it .

Cityone,
Innova are £15 per LFT plus the cost of the medic to administer

It may cost up to £4 for LFT itself, there is a worldwide shortage of manufacturers.
Then you have the packaging which can cost £1.50
Add the cost of risk capital to invest in the Affirmer tech for many years previous.
Then there is the cost of capital to fund the mass tests themselves

On £5 a test we will bust in a month or two , £15 plus a test minimum, even at that price point we are saving the Government a fortune.

It’s worth pointing out we don’t have a test on the market yet so the company may well lose all the capital / time that has been invested into this Covid 19 test, as such we need risk and reward to be balanced

That makes no sense whatsoever other than we know the Abbot test is not the gold standard

Fair point A.I
These are commodity items

Saying that, guess it comes down to the reagent / buffer and what ‘tech ‘ is involved in identifying Covid 19 in the infectious period, point being,if our test becomes the ‘Sovereign’ antigen test for the U.K. we can read across that it’s 700M tests rolled out for whoever wins the prize

Thanks CautiousOp
Good point on the Swob / environment, thinking would we counter balance this no requirement for a saliva ‘ collector’?
Your buffer thesis sounds feasible, hence the consistency of the saliva kind of comes into the mix ?

Good post CautiousOp

Do you think the technical challenges has been around collecting the saliva itself in a uniformed manner ?
Almost Goldilocks consistency required?
However if we used a Swob to collect around our gums it’s arguable we could achieve ?
We then add to the reagent on the LFT? It’s still a self administered saliva test but via a Swob ?

What’s your thoughts?

Phil, who is the test in Liverpool?

An investment bank called https://pasacacapital.com/
Bought LFT’s off a Chinese Company called
xiamen biotime biotechnology co ltd

They then set up a company in the UK for £1
Google the address
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09331606
They then ran the Chinese LFT’s through Innova in Italy who they own, to distribute them via the £1 company to the UK Government for £130M plus contract, but to be fair they did get tested at Porton Down

The U.K. Government pays £600M to fly them into the UK
http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738132047

The Investment bank Pasaca Capital also have connections/ funding to https://www.triedandtested.tech/
To distribute the tests to business’s

So answer to your question it could be them

Monk,
Looking into Bruker, these guys have multiple kit in hospitals across USA / World
It looks like the speed of each ‘ run’ & accuracy that swings it our way

The dots are in place

Whilst it’s frustrating that Condor are taking so long over BAM’s I don’t think it makes that much difference USA / World with Bruker vs the UK, take the former any day.

Worth noting if I remember correctly that our advisers had £250M p/a profit pencilled in for BAM’s IF Bruker rolled out - put this into prospective, it’s Ncyt’s gross revenue from testing and they are give or take at £750M m/cap

We have been working with Bruker for quite some time now, directly and indirectly, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a contract announced, it’s been well flagged in advance.

Pl75, I don’t think this will matter State side
Bruker don’t/ won’t need Condor clearance for USA / world

Interesting comment

‘The supply of these new test kits is currently limited in the face of very high global demand and consequently it was necessary to contract for supply on an ex-works basis for product manufactured in China in order to secure the required quantity of product and prevent gazumping’

LFT’s are going to be a much wanted device.

Just a question of ramping up our manufacturing, which we know is happening

http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738132047

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/doubts-over-rapid-turnaround-covid-tests-pledged-by-johnson

MB,
I think your onto something with the swab test from Mologic and if the self administered LFT is not ready then we win either way - also agree Avacta’s self administered test is not ready today.

Mologic swob via a medical professional onto an LFT, think that is possible but they would have to pass phase 3 Porton Down trials.

If Mologic do pull off the ‘ holy grail ‘ of the self administered LFT -that will be some feat -either way as you say ODX enjoy orders - same as/if / when Avacta get over the line then ODX secure sales from this source.

It’s a no lose situation for ODX.

MF, hang in there, you have come this far.

Have faith, Innova is not self administered, you need a health professional to administer - Boris actually said ‘you use yourself to see if your infectious’
BAM’s any day
Within weeks we will be there with our test, it’s coming sir.

As long as larger operators don’t try and buy on the cheap
for say £1.50/ £2

If Colin secures a fair / commercial price for ODX’s manufacturing / engineering skills then we have chance to enjoy the whole upside

Mars1

If we look at Ncyt they appear to be hovering around 3 X gross revenue , 4 plus X EBITA estimates
It’s a moving target as there may be some upside built into that valuation,it’s just for an example.

A decent way to value ODX is consider how long do you think Covid testing will last for and can they secure £2 a test on average ?

Assume £200M EBITA - based on 10M tests @ £2 but this will be geared up over Q1 2021, thats an £800M valuation based against Ncyt today .

ODX on that basis has the potential to be circa £6 a share.
We just need to Colin to increase manufacturing capacity and secure ODX a fair price for their bespoke engineering skills, unfortunately Covid 19 does the rest.