Member Info for Okehurst1

Sat,
Just re - this particular contract
Its for a specific none nasopharyngeal test, which kind of rules out a respiratory test by default.

It appears this contract is for the self administered home use market only , that rules out the Mologic test for this particular contract.

If - and we don’t know yet - Avacta clear the clinical trials then they will need the test manufactured, if they fail ODX secures business off Mologic for the proffesional use test.

Emergency MHRA was awarded last week to 3no tests but it had provisions, it wasn’t 100% cart Blanche clearance for the general public

If Avacta did clear clinical then quite possibly Omega can make money/ profit per test than via Mologic, plus Aptamer group may well pass themselves but they look a few months behind, it doesn’t even look like they have reached futility yet.

Scardey,
Mologic may well be at Porton Down but it won’t be in for this contract, it’s test is not saliva / lower nasel based.

Aptamer Group this week were provided with a £250k exploratory contract, it does appear they are attempting to become a provider of the IP within an antigen LFD
so we can say they are not ready for phase 3 just yet.

This leave Mologic with a basic reagent/ buffer, as such they have the standard professional administered test, on an average of 200pg/ml it won’t have the range to cover
Ct 15 to Ct28 and a viral load from 1.00+E to 7.00+E

Avacta’s may not pass clinical trials , they will need 50pg/ml to 100pg/ml to stand a chance to cover the above .
Their Elisa test was 40pg/ml but this is machine driven.

Omega wins business either way ,it can’t lose.

Optimist,
I hold Omega and Avacta shares.

I don’t think Mologic can apply for this tender, their test is respiratory and it appears this particular tender is focusing on Saliva and possibly lower nasel - not nasopharyngeal and is targeting for the self administered home use market

The Mologic test looks like it’s going to be one for a professional to administer.

Omega of course can’t lose, they will make Antigen tests for Mologic for professional use or for Avacta if they pass the clinical trial in early January ,if of course they have capacity, either way bodes well for Omega and their pricing power.

It appears there are no other saliva /lower nasel tests out there today so if Avacta fails at Porton Down then I can’t see the home test market for antigen being available for use by the general public .

The £900M LFT contract closes on the 9/02/21 and the above contract just 5 days later as per Abingdon disclosed below yesterday.

So 5 days to evaluate the tenders for the £900M and award the relevant contracts and ditto the RTC to get their order from same before the supply contract expires and they seek overseas orders.

The dots are in place, the U.K. diagnostic engineering businesses are lined up ready for the winner.

Abingdon have also confirmed that whilst the DHSC continues to have first refusal for supplies of the AbC-19TM Rapid Test through a Supply of Goods Contract that extends to 14 February 2021, the UK-RTC is liaising with customers and regulatory authorities across a total of 27 international territories, to allow future use of the product outside of the U.K.’

‘Abingdon have also confirmed that whilst the DHSC continues to have first refusal for supplies of the AbC-19TM Rapid Test through a Supply of Goods Contract that extends to 14 February 2021, the UK-RTC is liaising with customers and regulatory authorities across a total of 27 international territories, to allow future use of the product outside of the U.K.’

The above is from Colin King the CEO of Omega.

The U.K. LFT manufacturers will sell to the rest of the world once their supply of goods contract expires.

The Government would then be in an embarrassing position of post brexit the U.K. diagnostics industry supplying the EU and keeping their schools / businesses open whilst the U.K. remains in tier 4

Avacta are sitting in a good position, no way will the government want this to happen ,we just need our S&S to be as good as Alister suggests it is.

Arnold,
Coming at it from this angle.

Think we can say Mologic have used Aptamers and Molgic’s test is not suitable for home use as it’s respiratory and based on the basic data we have to hand especially the average pg/mo it’s going to be at the standard/ level of the Abbott LFT at best.

I suggest the Aptamer Group are now coming at this in different way commercially, they have submitted their own test with their own generic reagent buffer with Aptamers.

They didn’t have the funds to produce the 10,000 tests required for Porton Down up to stage 3 and as such were awarded a £250,000 contract to fund the process.

Avacta and Apitmer are now head to head, neither have their own manufacturing capacity and they don’t need to, but whichever one has the best S&S after clinical validation should win the U.K. Government contracts, if one had 60% positive predication and the other 90% I can’t see the lower spec one winning a contract.

Am taking the view Avacta & Aptamer are providing the IP to go inside the test, of course if both are similar then the spoils will be shared.

Think what we can take from Aptamer applying for an IP contract themselves ,the U.K. diagnostics manufacturing industry will be geared up to supply to the winner.

This single exploratory contract makes it highly likely that Mologic just have the standard generic reagent / buffer and Aptamer hold the IP of the Mologic test.

If this is the case then BBI/ Abingdon / ODX and even Mologic are there to manufacture for whoever wins the race between Affirmers / Aptamers

Whichever one out these two succeeds has the U.K. LFT diagnostics market ready to manufacture for them.

Blownit, good find

This is extremely positive news for Avacta, quite liked this section.

D. It is impossible to comply with the usual timescales in the PCR: it is not possible to comply with the timescales of another procedure due to the urgent requirement to ensure that new technologies are validated now.

Thanks for sharing Scardey

Wyndrum

You could look at this way, in the past 5 days we have found out one of our machine driven competitors test is not that good - MAPP at 62% average positive prediction

Mologic who were the dark horse using the Aptamer are on 200pg/ml average and their test is a respiratory so not suitable for home use and it appears they are focusing on the African market.

Abbot / Innova to name a couple are around 60% themselves - Jon Deeks reckons Innova is just 3% but let’s discount that

Unless a black swan comes along then Avacta are in a good position for both the machine and LFT Home test market worldwide

If you can find another test in either category and data on same then it would good if you could share with us, it adds value for everyone.

BAM’s and LFT data will be with us over the next few weeks and Avacta will itself be measured on the same, suggest it’s either sell now and wait until the stats are released and but are a higher / lower price if inclined or sit tight and ride the wave.

Posted partly on this one yesterday.

Bruker have produced a 4 in 1 test - as below
Testing in Hospitals won’t stop because of the vaccine, suggest this will be required for quite some time.

Looking how the U.K./USA have granted emergency home use last week -to what looks like sub standard at home antigen tests - there is fair chance a whole new market has been opened up for individuals buying a cheap test to identify what they may have when they start to feel poorly.

So Brukers /BAM’s will continue, we just need sight of the confirmation from Alister and short term the Covid 19 antigen test in isolation, which we are expecting quite soon and moving forward a possible all in one test for home use like the Bruker test - again though we want to see any our current tests rolled out commercially first

https://www.bruker.com/news/bruker-launches-fluorotyper-sars-cov-2flursv-pcr-panel-in-europe-with-ce-ivd-mark.html

Forever, it was average , 100mg/pl to 300mg/pl according to the limited Mologic stats they provided.
Mixed numbers with Innova, PHE to Jon Deeks and Innova’s own marketing literature had them from 400pg/ml to 150pg/ml
As we know Jon Deeks ripped Innova apart with his Birmingham University review but wherever these tests are then based on the average ranges above they won’t be accurate for home use, put aside they are respiratory and nasopharyngeal and not suitable for mass home use by the general public.

We are of course speculating that Avacta will deliver - we just don’t know yet

Interesting that the sample size was less than 200 people and simulated home use, no big trial .

No data on pg/ml or Ct values either

‘Dr. Wolfgang Pusch, Executive Vice President Microbiology & Diagnostics at Bruker Daltonics, commented: “We appreciate the positive customer feedback on the performance of our new FluoroType SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV panel. Compared to PCR assays that detect only the SARS-CoV-2 virus, our winter four-plex panel offers added value in a cost-effective workflow. Our clinical laboratory customers now also have the option of offering the saliva workflow for patient convenience, faster time-to-result, and reduced resource requirements without RNA extraction.”

Interesting paragraph

‘Saliva sampling option convenient for patients, while also achieving high PCR sensitivity; saliva samples do not require extraction and enable a faster, resource-effective workflow’

Noticed Bruker released this product update on 18/12/20
regarding their PCR panel.

https://www.bruker.com/news/bruker-launches-fluorotyper-sars-cov-2flursv-pcr-panel-in-europe-with-ce-ivd-mark.html

Captain,

Considering we only have limited data but working with what we do have, I think the Saliva test worked in the lab with a low pg/ml value, as such Alister got excited let the world know but he couldn’t get the same result with live samples and his credibility suffered.

So Alister has learnt his lesson, he didn’t over egg the the pg/ml or Ct values with the nasal test in fact he covered himself by quoting the 300pg/ml range, in the meantime he then completes the in house testing which we can assume they have now tested on live samples and he introduces ‘ he’s very pleased ‘ with the results.

If we know they Mologic test is averaging 200pg/ml and is pretty much at Innova levels then he has to be at 50pg/ml to 100pg/ml and covering a Ct range up to 28, maybe even 30.

If he is on this range then Avacta unobtrusive nasal test will be the only test in the world that is suitable / accurate for the general public to use at home and to advise people with confidence when they are infectious

Just on Mologic, we have to respect their business, excellent U.K. diagnostics business but commercially their test just won’t work for the self administered home market, plus it won’t be accurate enough.

This is Avacta’s to lose now, if Alister's cryptic message transpire’s to the pg/ml and Ct range above then we take the whole market - worldwide.

As long as Alister's interpretation of being ‘ very pleased ‘ is lower than mine

Lee,
I don’t have any concern here, the data from mologic on just 28 patients, the pg/ml range in line with Innova, it’s a respiratory test so back of the throat, it won’t cut it for Home use , it appears they are focused on non for profit 3rd world countries - which is admirable to be fair
and no comment on clinical trials at Porton Down.

Putting the limited data together it looks like Mologic are now ruled out as a competitor to Avacta for the self administered UK home market

Purely on a commercial basis this is good news for Avacta today

Lee, we know the Elisa test is 40pg/ml, it’s not a full like for like test but it’s comfort that the Affirmers can detect very low viral load.

Alister has told us he’s very pleased with the in house data, he can’t comment on the final clinical validation until it’s complete.

I may be wrong but gut feel could be looking at 50pg/ml to 100pg/ml, I think we can now say with some certainty we will out perform Mologic.

As regards the CE certification I don’t think it’s high on the agenda, pass the clinal trials at Porton Down is the key marker now, we want MHRA clearance.

Lee, thanks for sharing.
Interesting points from news release.

- 100-350 (<5×10^2 pfu/ml), a key tool for estimating the infectious titre of a virus.
Innova quoted something similar on their ranges if I recall

- It’s a swab at the back of the throat like PCR so that’s not suitable for home use.

It was only rumours but feedback from PHE was they were not convinced with the data from Mologic

Target market appears to be 3rd world countries, so that possibly has some substance.