Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi MB
Thanks for putting me straight yesterday, fair comment on Surescreen, my eyesight is letting me down.

Agree on all your points below, Alister has raised expectations and not delivered.

The one area that I think is the Achilles heel for Innova/ Abbott and I expect Suresreen to fall into the same bracket is their test won’t work for the self administered at home market , all the data points to 56% accuracy at best.

Mologic may have cracked it using Aptamers but we just don’t know.
On that basis Avacta are still in the game, whoever cracks this technically takes the world market in this sector for maybe 18 months.

If BAM’s/ Bruker deal is announced first which is possible the share price won’t be as low as today, if they follow up with success with their LFT then that’s bunce on top.

Deliver neither and we could be 50p to 60p down, deliver both it could be £3 to £5 possibly much higher depending on the size of the contracts.

The Avacta share has become a lottery ticket.

Arnold, it’s frustrating but no one has yet to secure MHRA for general public home use, not even Innova.
Sure screen are trying to get a contract without going through the government procedures, they have no chance, as such they are lashing out on Sky last week , FT today.

They are going nowhere without passing Porton Down phase 3 - as are Avacta

We have been here before, usual tactics.
https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-covid-19-testing-at-heathrow-airport/

Companies using the press to steam roller a test past the government.

If Surescreen - who will probably be using a generic Chinese buffer / reagent - had of been at Porton Down then they wouldn’t be trying to embarrass the Government to give a them a contract.

They are going about it the wrong way.

https://liverpool.gov.uk/communities-and-safety/emergency-planning/coronavirus/how-to-get-tested/testing-faqs/

Liverpool results show Innova LFT missed 50% of pcr confirmed cases and 30% of high viral load.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-uk-regulators-warn-people-with-history-of-significant-allergic-reactions-not-to-have-pfizer-biontech-jab-12155916

Agree, looks that way.
Good chance it’s the same buffer / reagent in all the tests that originate from China

Quite incredible that possibly £1.2B of contracts have been issued to a one man band who has registered the head office in a terraced house and operational HQ is an apartment

Tom, will try and dig out the Italian link - this has to be a smokescreen to get around EU regs ? Especially when you look at the U.K. corporate structure
I could only find the 2 contracts but I have not reviewed since last week

The sole director of Innova details below

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/BM43njNZDjAyLhnSdKkEVMJp0IY/appointments

Wolves, fully understand your frustration, think all of us PI’s feel the same.

I look it this way to stay sane.

BAM’s is close, we know Bruker are using, we just don’t know details of the contract.

BAM’s is being trialled in the U.K. as well but we have no detail.

The LFT technically went to TT a few weeks ago, it just wasn’t explained well enough, that’s my opinion, rightly or wrongly.

There is a very high chance we are at Porton Down right now.

There is no competition worldwide for a self administered LFT home test, this may well come off for Avacta within the next week or so, coupled with its first contract.

Think we can assume Avacta was not at Porton Down at the time of the Government update below on the 24/11/20 but we may well be there now, but it’s just speculation and opinions.

However we know BAM’s is being used via Bruker on their spectrometer machines, if we assume our BAM’s is accurate and it must be or Bruker wouldn’t be using it then the same logic must apply in the U.K, the Avacta BAM’s must be in the mix
Worth mentioning again that a lab assistant can process up to 20 times more tests a day using BAM’s on a Bruker machine and it’s much cheaper than PCR per test.
PCR doesn’t identify people at their most infectious.

Bruker are a global company and have multiple machines in hospitals around the world, there is no requirement to purchase a PCR machine, the hospitals use the existing kit , save money, increased productivity and identify who is infected with Covid 19 before PCR does.

https://www.bruker.com/products/mass-spectrometry-and-separations.html

Thinks contract award this week!

‘Measured against the (economic, emotional and human) cost of a Lockdown3 in Jan/Feb - HMG know that an accurate Sovereign LFD is priceless. #AVCT. Contract awards this week. AVA6000 news due too. Good luck trying to time an entry if you're not in already now ‘

Lee, agree on Mologic’s ethos, can’t fault them.

Avacta’s take on the comparison below

https://avacta.com/2014-06-20/

Interesting stats.
Following on from last weeks posts.

As per below , Chinese Innova test just can’t cover the full range from from a viral load of 1.10E+ to high 7.00E over the most asymptomatic infectious period , same with a range of 18Ct to 30Ct.

None of the current LFT tests can.

It’s going to a head to head, Affirmer vs Aptamers( Mologic) which of these man made molecules, if either, added to the reagent / buffer, can improve on the current performance of LFT providers who are using just a reagent / buffer.

It’s going be interesting to see this play out.

It could be this test.

https://www.medusa19.com/

Tom, it’s a good point.

In affect the Chinese LFT has only been tested using a synthetic version of the virus whilst it was at Porton Down,not live samples.

$50 a test

Demonstrates the size of the market if Avacta can pull this off.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-greenlights-first-all-one-home-covid-test-results-30-minutes

If want to see their head office
Copy / Paste their address into Google Maps

48 Portland Road, Luton, England, LU4 8AY

It’s a terraced house in Luton, one sole director.

No R@D or investment into the U.K. diagnostics industry

A USA private equity firm owns Innova shares, this will have been used as a front as Innova are registered in Italy,they then loan Innova the money to buy the generic tests from China.
The principle $sum being lent is registered in the Cayman isles / equivalent, wherever there is no tax on interest received or dividends.

The profits from the U.K. will pop over to Italy then the USA equity firm will charge interest on the ‘ money ‘ they lent to Innova.

Innova will pay no Italian corporation tax as the interest will probably wipe out any profit as the funds are repatriated to the tax haven.

This is just a standard overseas private equity structure

All the profits in the form of interest will be tax free to the USA equity company.

The U.K. diagnostics industry loses out, there is no investment into the U.K. by Innova , as does the U.K. Treasury, they lose out on corporation tax and dividend tax

What a gig

Tom, suggest as Avacta are a publicly quoted company on the LSE and assume they did win a contract of note then this would be worthy of an RNS.

Information only disclosed this week

Another £100M of orders for the Chinese test vis Innova, must be £1/2B for them now over the last 12 weeks.

http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W49/740098215