Member Info for Okehurst1

… burn these shorts …

Kings Street stake building is v interesting

Why would they increase - after putting a Bid in at £1.70 - if it was just a stunt by MM ? Doesn’t make sense that ?

Are Market Makers trying to flush out weak holders and build a book for someone ?

That’s my take

Quite surprised at the shorters doubling down

It must get to Matt Moulding

Quite suits us though

Tbf

He’s been on the money with this one up to now

https://twitter.com/thecityspy/status/1528077598378676226?s=10&t=oHJTzlwxnMkDXu6H0_A_CA

Could be Goldy, looks like we will breach £2 next week - sometime

IF more bidders come out with the mooted £2.50 we could see £2.25?

See where we go from there …

Goldy

How independent is our Chairman ? Will he be walking away or be retained ?

Can Lord Allen realign the interests of all the shareholders, its a difficult balance, the majority (insiders) will want the buyout to be at the lowest price and us private investors will want to pay the highest £mcap

Assume we got £3 (£4B as a figure ) his CV will show he guided THG from a £1b Mcap to £4B managing all shareholders expectations and he's looking good for his next gig ?

We had 80M shorts still out on loan last week

Assume £2.50 is the lowest indicated price at the moment ? Could go higher ?

When do the shorts bail? Interesting to see how they exit this one without further relative losses?

Kando

Assume he takes Private

Could MM double the Rev the next 36 months ?

Then separately sell Nutrition and Beauty when the markets improve ?
Could he enjoy the muted 3X to 5X in a better market

He then spins out Ingenuity again when markets higher and Lists in USA - 3 years time

Will the market ever give him a 3X to 5X valuation? But a trade buyer might ?

Depending on his carry he could double what he could make within a quoted vehicle, he can then start again giving staff new shares in the new vehicles

So many merits for MM to take private

Ironically Iain Mc can see same,hence his bid, assuming it’s not part of a non disclosed concert party

Kando - good debate
Suggest we have to look at it this from another angle

THG will borrow the money to buy out - let’s call them/ us the outsiders - the Company carries the debt not MM
It’s extremely tax efficient, service debt , leave principle in place

MM then enjoys a ‘ carry ‘ which is over and above his current equity stake of 15%, it could be 10% or even 15% either way it will be decent

It’s win win for MM

Appreciate this is now as much about the individual investors entry point - satisfaction levels

MM has a tricky balancing act, he won’t want to load THG with too much debt via the buyout as he will want capital to grow the business, if he pitches the offer too low he may hit resistance

Hence his buddy of 12 years and fellow director Iain Mac throws his £1.70p into the ring as starter for ten to gauge reaction - it’s worked

The BoD / Lord Allen be weighing up what they can get away with?

MM can now start to read the room and weigh up what is the sweet spot?

I would be delighted at £4 let’s hope that’s the number

Suggest we need to look at this from MM’s / BoD position - assuming they are taking private

They will want to get away with the lowest acceptable price they pay us?

£3B to £4B (£2.25 to £3) ?

Can’t see MM paying us £4 a share - would be blown away if he did but gut feel he will pitch between the above

21st April - didn’t age well :-)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2022/apr/21/thg-takeover-talk-investors-retailer-online

Firewall - link below

‘Big buyout groups such as Apollo and Advent are known to have looked at the company but so far have not tabled a formal offer.’

Wonder who the 3rd bidder if not the above ? Ditto will Apollo and Advent table and offer !

https://on.ft.com/3PBf5Gc

Was the big shareholder - unnamed by The Times - also ‘speaking ‘to the BoD indirectly saying they won’t take £1.70?

It looks like positioning to me inferring 5X Rev stuff

Being realistic, as XXXAc says below £2.30 to £3, all over next 4 to 6 weeks, it’s highly likely THG is coming off the market.

There were many posters on this BB saying what an opportunity at 88p just 6 weeks ago, we won’t look back and a rare opportunity in the market for PI’s etc ….. they were right.

50% (£2.30 ) to 100% (£3) is the range in my opinion on what we will make on our investment as it stands this weekend, it’s why I didn’t sell yesterday, the risk / reward profile is weighted in our favour.

Why take profit when it could open higher Monday ?

THG now in play - outside normal trading patterns ?

Good luck to anyone day trading, makes little difference to Holders
we have a £1.45 ( at moment ) marketable security that has a price on it off someone at £1.70 ,suggest we all know this going to go above that price

One way ticket upwards

SP, without doubt
After market will give us a true picture

What’s your thoughts Btw re how this is going to play out ?

You can see the attraction of MM taking private when you have muppets like this journalist publishing reports like this

Mute point … but THG have tax losses .. so no tax to pay in 2024
she needs to read the audited accounts / balance sheet, another piece of poor reporting

It’s by the by to current holders, we are getting taken out at a higher price regardless of the continued efforts to dump down THG

We all know THG is worth more than £4B m/cap

Nutrition and Beauty are number 1 in the world D2C
Ingenuity has potential on top

Suggest the writing was on the wall when Matt appointed Lord Allen
he’s got form regarding takeovers and backing the BoD - think Granada

He’s a senior advisor to Goldman Sachs who are connected to THG

He wouldn’t have took the ‘Chair’ to have a battle with MM

This now about managing City expectations , low ball £1.70
Tweak up , keep as low as possibly get away with a £2 in front of it

Goldman
Thats my take - opinion

Iain Mac is a personal friend of Matts, he knows the golden share is in- situ, he is on the Bod, he has been lead investment banker for Matt for many years.

THG is now in play to be taken private but the game has to play out, we are now at £2.4B take out, Matt could nick this at £3B , £2.20 a share

Personal opinion, Matt not hanging on for £4 a share that's not his MO, he wants to grow THG and get a bigger piece of the equity, he can do that via the private route - he owns 15% today he could easily double to 30% with a " carry", he can't get his stake up whilst THG on public markets

I would love to see £4B , £3 a share,but suspect this going to be £2.20 to £3 tops