Member Info for Okehurst1

Tbf to Captain he called this mess a year ago

We had a few debates on this BB , we didn’t always agree - in the end I was proved wrong of course - we kept it respectful

It’s good to have other view points / share information otherwise it’s an echo chamber, think we can all agree it was the BoD use of social media that tricked most of us, it wasn’t Captain who brought the share price from £1.30 to 3p, this BoD pumped and dumped

Few thoughts on the £££

The BoD in the round have set out the numbers quite clearly, they will raise £2M
£1.2M is to fund the losses of CD4 ,£800k to invest in FT
They will require the full £2M of this raise to fund the CD4 losses IF they don’t sell this Calendar year
They have a £2.5M claim from DHSC
There is no way the directors can invest the £800K into FT until CD4 is disposed of, fiduciary duties won’t allow them .

On a positive note they have £3M p/a gross cash from FT so PlC costs covered and a bit over -
Nb worth noting marketing costs in FT are 16% of sales value if £800k went into marketing it should generate decent sales based on past performance

This fund raise will dilute existing shareholders by 25%

Assume they can sell CD4 and they could get £1M - am trying to be positive but it could be £1 quid

FT is then a nice business if the margins are holding, my guess is once DHSC / CD4 sorted we will see a move up from these levels IF FT achieving what they say it is / can deliver

In effect this is an emergency fund raise, maybe smarter to sit out until the 2 elephants in the room are sorted, there is a business in Omega but wait to see the risk is reduced, let the II’s fund this one

Just a hunch … by teasing out PE MM doesn’t have to show his hand as yet ? He attracts Bids and he can make the call can he offer a knock out blow without worry PE will outbid him … plus he has the Golden Share which he still hasn’t relinquished.

Add on he ‘ only ‘ has 15% equity we can guess taking private he will enjoy a ‘ carry’ post deal on him achieving agreed targets
If it’s a pure debt deal he may end up with 30% plus equity and it’s a Bond driven deal ? He could give up the rent for a while to help fund the debt or sell a division post deal - Nutrition - to reduce debt

Pure speculation on my side but feel he’s lining up a Bid to take Private and he can leave the Circus/ scrutiny of the Stock Market behind

It’s just at what £M/cap ?

Good shout Max

Interesting posts

Captain, agree, Omega has been a steep learning curve for me.

Quoted AIM company directors can pump their stock with information that misrepresents the truth - via social media - then sell their shares into the pump ,it should be criminal

There have been so many with Omega I got well sucked in, from USA growth , DHSC contract even after they knew it was over , India antibody test - remember that one ?
The list is endless …. Quite often they would add something like #inColin we trust , or ‘transformational’ the same time dumping their shares including the current slippery one called Jag , dumped his shares into the pump he’s definitely not to be trusted

Greezzz , fair point, considered same myself

Guess when your worth £Billions in a high profile way you get a bit twitchy and to be fair to Matt Moulding he gifted his salary to charity for the 2 years in question, he doesn’t appear to be unable to pay for personal security

Looks like he thought security was an expense - ok at offices / premises but not at your house and school run

From 2022 he’s paying for himself

Btw …. THG going Private looks the way this one is going, MM owning 15% , taking no salary , press all over him / his family every weekend

Why not take Private , try and nick 50% Equity, makes sense from his prospective ?

The BoD had circa £3.6M - in the failed placing document a few months ago - to exit Alva

Now that we know CD4 was losing £300k a week it appears they had estimated it could take 12 months to dispose CD4, not sure why they couldn’t just sell the asset for a £quid and save shareholders £3.6M - 50% of the targeted placing / raise

They could have then come clean to shareholders, raise say £5M when the share price was 14p ( say ) maybe discount to 10p instead of traipsing around bucket shops and getting chipped.

They could have discussed the margin in FT and explained £2.5M of the £5M to be set aside worst case DHSC but they expect to win the legal battle alongside the £675k via Abingdon

Instead …. 5 months since Colin has gone there has been little to no interaction from Jag and the shareholders continue to build their distrust of the BoD as a result

It’s not difficult but this BoD do everything the hard way

It’s a lesson to us PI’s not to trust AIM companies BoD’s

Am not too sure the Directors can ‘ invest ‘ the £800k into ‘ growing ‘ the company - that’s their number btw - until CD4 is sold and the £2.5M DHSC claim is settled
Fiduciary duties won’t allow them to or they could be liable / answerable for certain debts accrued from this point

Ditto no auditor will sign off the accounts next time through without these 2 points being sorted.

It doesn’t mean Omega will become insolvent as they have enough cash to get to year end IF they don’t have to pay DHSC, the problem is a company can’t retain its LSE quote with qualified accounts

The Company would have to go Private and the BoD restructure the debt at that point

Starting to feel this is the end game here and the BoD try and pick up the FT business off the Insolvency boys sometime 2023, can’t see a way out of this one.

Suggest we know a upward rerate is coming, THG is massively undervalued

Gut feel , going Private via MM buy out feels the route the BoD will take
a low ball £4B to £4.5B value, as I say just a guess with SoftBank / others funding the buyback of the relatively small free float

As you say SP, the red dot could drop anytime whichever they go, taking private / buyout or disposal of Nutrition and spin off Ingenuity

Guess it could come any day with everything in place ?

Annual report out - Tick
SoftBank option expiry next week - tick
Trading entities restructured via companies house - tick

New Chairman indicates by June shareholders updated on restructuring

Everything in place, looking forward to the detail

She, fair comment thought myself re Margins etc

However the numbers include up to the end of February 2022, they are within last 8 weeks, guessing they will discuss forward numbers on their analyst’s call?

Union

They have just raised £2M diluting shareholder value by 25%

IF they don’t sell CD4 which is loss making to the tune of £3.6M a year - we now know that after today - then the whole £2M will be used up to fund the losses until end of the year
They can’t invest the targeted £800k until CD4 is sorted otherwise they may run out of cash

In meantime they have the £2.5M DHSC claim to settle

Relevant to THG sector

Decent growth from Rev Beauty £200M revenue M/cap £356M

Assume the market puts zero value on Ingenuity

Place a £number on Nutrition let’s say 40% of current m/cap based on revenue - know it’s not perfect science and a joke that the market values Nutrition at just £600M for this example

That leaves THG Beauty valued at £800M on £1.2B revenue

The value gap is quite remarkable

Plus of course the elephant in the room …

£2.5M claim off DHSC

This has to be seen as an emergency raise, £1.2M of the £2M is keep the lights on at a small corner of Alva

It leaves only £800,000 to invest in the actual business itself ?

What happens if they can’t sell Alva?
Any would be buyer now knows Omega needs to sell

Final thought …. When they tried to raise the £7.5M they didn’t crack on 50% would be used on the running losses of CD4 IF they didn’t sell the division

Considering CD4 generated £800k in revenue last year it looks like a hard sell getting a sale away

Matt moulding must be wetting his lips, if ever there was a time to put a bid in to take private?

Daily walk down as market makers try to flush out traders to fill large buy orders

You can set your watch to this action

Market Makers trying to squeeze out Bids

Watch out for flash crash as they collect stock for orders from weak holders / traders

Thanks sharing 1pencil
V helpful data