Member Info for Okehurst1

£2B revenue
Growing at up to 25%
EBITA medium term heading to 9% to 10%
Ingenuity guidance of £108M confirmed
Nutrition strong Q1
Numerous approaches - they will be back at these levels

All of the above for just over £1B m/cap

Shorts will nervous moving forward

Outperformed IPO targets

‘ numerous parties ….’

£2B plus revenue @ near medium term 10% EBITA
Growth this year up to 25%

Nutrition has strong Q1

Ingenuity maintains guidance £108M plus

No wonder there have been numerous approaches

£1.03p/ .04p is my call for close today
Shorts need to cover, MM’s are attempting to manage the step up.

A whopping 15M minimum just for the 2 disclosable shorts

Plus any trader under the .5%

The PR team who provided the non story to the ST did their best to mark the share down yesterday, hence the high volume

Matt didn’t give them much chance to get out by only advising the market 2 hours before the Easter Holiday
If he does announce a big corporate deal that the market likes then it could cost big $$ to close the 15M shares never mind the PI’s who are short and other II’s under the .5%

It’s going to be painful for them

This was a rare opportunity to load up at sub £1

On a good day IF their bet is right they make maybe 20p a share

Middling day ? The results are on target and we move back to £1 plus
and start the move up

Bad day ? Matt pulls a corporate rabbit out of the Hat and there is a upward rerate… they could be looking at a serious margin call or liquidation by their broker depending on their ability to cover - thinking PI’s rather than institutional shorters

Farrell, fair comment.

Any large corporate transaction / restructuring may require a shareholder vote , be that take THG private / dispose of Nutrition alongside spinning off Ingenuity

Matt is a deal maker, we only have to look at his track record, feels like something is going on behind the scenes, one more trading day and we find out one way or other

Bit of a marmite character but has influence on private investors who subscribe to his daily muses.

Tom not instigating a ‘buy ‘ but advising in his daily news letter to his subscribers to close their ‘ shorts ‘ as too risky before Thursday and THG may have hit its low point.

Think the sentiment shifting - of course Thursday important

Hi London
Good debate

Yeah assume £ARR is £100M December - based on £8.5M Dec X 12
working on their current known forecast

In theory that growth rate for 2023 could show close to £200M ARR December 2023 which could be the bench mark for the Nasdaq quote -
I worked on 10X £ARR to be on the safe side due to the recent Nasdaq pull back since November 21

Either way it’s impressive growth if they can maintain, can see their logic of spinning off this division doubt it see its true value within an e-commerce business with a U.K. Quote

Pander

Update re Ingenuity already out there ;

https://storeleads.app/reports/thehutgroup

They forecasted 80no new clients this year alone, looks like they are on target, it’s impressive growth

Average annual revenue per client & December £ARR are the numbers to lookout for - If they disclose

At this level of growth I think Ingenuity is heading for £200M ARR - worth noting ARR is based the last month Rev X 12

£200M ARR puts Ingenuity on £2B value on the Nasdaq
if they do spin off

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2021/05/the-hut-group-receives-1-6bn-funding-to-invest-aggressively/

As posted by others MM looks super chilled on his IG account about the non story by the ST
As a side note worth a peek on Twitter at the ‘ journalist ‘ who produced the article, the young lady has some issues with people who generate wealth

Is it this week that Ingenuity is spun off ? Is that why MM is relaxed ?

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2021/05/the-hut-group-receives-1-6bn-funding-to-invest-aggressively/

Bentley Labs is another asset that is overlooked in the current share price
https://www.bentleylabs.com/

Personal take on events from Thursday

MM advising the market 2.30pm Thursday that the results will be out within 7 days but allowing only 2 trading days for Shorts to close was quite telling, suggest Shorts may have been hoping the results would be delayed causing confusion, the RNS caught them out and they have had to digest the information
Put aside the volume dropped off Thursday afternoon as we entered
a 4 day national holiday it would have been difficult to trade outside market size.

As we all know THG have filed a report to the Regulators regarding Shorting Activity on THG stock, so we know it’s personal to MM.
Disclosed Shorts would need to purchase 14M plus shares before Thursday to close their position, we can assume there are others with non disclosed positions that are under the threshold of disclosure.

There is no way the Shorts could BID on 14M shares, could even higher required volume, the stock just isn’t there in a 2 day trading window.

IF MM pulls a rabbit out of the hat - corporate restructuring enhancing shareholder value - on Thursday the losses for the Shorts could be comparably high as a combined quantum

The ‘ non ‘ story in the ST -in my opinion - smacks of desperation by interested parties attempting to subdue the share price to attempt to cover / trade their downside, all possible via lazy journalism being spoon fed a ‘ copy & paste ‘ article by a PR agency who’s clients have an agenda.

The Market Makers will try and flush out a few first thing Tuesday but suggest most Longs are holding out for the update on Thursday and as such the Shorts may have to up the BID to get the volume they require.

This could get quite messy for the Shorts

Goes without question its personal for MM vs The Shorts

Many - including the none disclosable - will have been hoping the results would have been delayed to push the price down, now that we know they are out within just 2 trading days MM has not given them much time to close out

Suggest they will be reviewing their Trade over the weekend, close Tuesday or risk a wipeout IF a decent corporate deal is announced ?

Going to be a very interesting to see how they get hold of the stock, I have built up a relatively large holding for me in THG the last 2 weeks, its been a slog and a half to accumulate 1.4M Shares, no idea how the disclosed Shorts could pick up 1% plus never mind the Shorts that we don't know about ?
Nb I don't normally disclose my holdings large or small but thought it was helpful to make my point to the BB

Point being you can purchase THG shares but not in volume, it takes days of trading otherwise you move the price up , the stock just isn't there, with only 2 trading days MM has put them under pressure big time.

£1 on the offer Tuesday is my call

I hadn't thought too much about taking the business private, interesting point.

Anyone got a view on the £cost to the management team to acquire the free float ?- Assume MM /Softbank /Original remaining backers retain their equity

Re ingenuity , its arguable £ARR may well be close to £200M Q4/22. Q1/2023
Worth noting £ARR is measured on the month taken X 12
on 10X £ARR - which is low ball for a quoted tech co

Add that to Sp28 breakdown below

Predications?

Am going for a corporate deal of note, disposal of nutrition and/or de-merger of ingenuity or the nuclear option
results and offer to take THG private again

MM is a deal making entrepreneur, his track shows he's not one to just plod on?

Any views ?

Thanks for your input Kando, very interesting

Forgot to add, we are not privy to the tax advantages in terms of writing off the full 100% capex in year 1 of the fit out

It may be helpful for THG to max whilst available - cash point on view

Take low coupon loan, covenant light, enjoy maximum right down year 1

It’s stuff like this alongside R@D tax credits that generate bunce cash

Insider

Think MM’s charity donations is personal - private

The loan with Warrington Council is to the Company itself

If THG secured terms they deemed commercial acceptable and same time Warrington Council secure the jobs expansion within their county and are satisfied with the rate of return on the coupon then that’s good for all parties including the local rate payers.

Warrington Council also enjoy business rates off the unit once occupied