Member Info for Okehurst1

Anyone an idea on this one from overnight ?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa2bf9a6-ba8b-11ec-b79e-9ccd39d2c9e7?shareToken=4d614928b2300aec13318a4479e5e116

US regulators have banned Imperial Brands’ myblu vaping device after a review found there was a lack of evidence they would protect public health, in a blow for the tobacco industry’s transition from cigarettes.

You wouldn’t bet against the £1 within next few days, gentle momentum
pushing this higher

Volume healthy as well

Few thoughts - possibilities and wish list

- Disposal of Nutrition to PE

- Market advised Demerger / separate quotation on Nasdaq market for Ingenuity, this may include a deal / fund raise of sorts with SoftBank for this one transaction, no requirement for IPO, just seek listing.

- Beauty retains current listing in U.K. with all conditions met for inclusion into indices

Proceeds from sale of Nutrition ?

Clear £500M debt, Beauty then enjoys £500M cash - no debt
£1.7B sales, is independent from funding Ingenuity moving forward
but pays as per ‘ external’ clients for Ingenuity’s services

Capital contribution to Nasdaq /Ingenuity quote above ?

Surplus capital - pending tax position on disposal of Nutrition
possible special divided

Disposal of Nutrition unlocks all of the above.

TW, am not sure they have the ‘ head room ‘ for a convertible loan note
They can’t issue shares below 4p - as per articles of association,
that was an opportunity for them at 12p but at 4p plus it won’t fly

Suggest their way forward is to attempt to settle promptly with DHSC
if possible, that should cover them for the year end audit as a going concern - they can’t be slapped with unqualified accounts or they will have to take the business private by default, that’s not in their interests

Then lay out their strategy including the gross margin for Food Tolerance, alongside an open offer and rights issue to shareholders but the document lays out where the ££ is going plus disclose their package
and the covenants connected to the overdraft -
Let’s not forget the OD is repayable on demand

Know we all know the fact the BoD only have £37K of shares between them, IF they put some skin in the game as part of the fund raise they could pull it off but they need to be transparent.

Omega is currently un- investable, if your holding then it’s a punt, however for new money they need to sort the following ;

- £2.5M DHSC claim
- £monthly cash burn is replaced with cash generation
- RNS on how they are going to fund the business, they currently advise they are exploring
- Dispose of CD4
- Advise on gross margin, major one in my opinion.
GP in Food Tolerence has been relatively high

If the BoD buy shares as well as clarify positive news to above points then this could rerate upwards , not being negative for negatives sake just being realistic.

Would genuinely like to see Omega BoD turn this around

Agree Captain - not been on the BB for a while btw just catching up

TW offers a fair assessment for debate

One observation/ thoughts

The BoD will have a problem getting their accounts signed off for 2021 unless they raise cash from somewhere, I wonder if the Bucket Shop Spivs would backed the £5M placing knew there may only be 3 or 4 months money left? Doubt it?

It’s a quirk of being on AIM that you can’t maintain your
quote if you can’t secure 12 months going concern

The £2.5M DHSC will be a real problem , no auditor will sign this off .

CD4 is loss making but maybe they can do an ‘ Alva’ and give it away

They need the other division to pay themselves their £150k to £200k packages

This is where the disconnect between the BoD running the business but only having £37k of shares between themselves, if they sell the only asset worth anything they don’t get their salaries

They can sell 18.3M shares but it would have to be at least 4p - put aside who would put £1M into the business as it may only last a few months - it’s still not £enough to demonstrate 1 Years cash plus cover DHSC

Worth noting it’s not what the BoD think re DHSC now, it’s getting an Audit partner to sign off off the full year accounts that’s going to be tough

Would we not get an RNS informing the market of the date the results are being published? Ditto the presentation of the same -? Usually same day

This tends to be the norm now for quoted companies ?

Any views ?

Thought this interesting info to share

Flowflex now banned in USA

Analysis of the test of the new owners of Alva, considering Innova is banned in USA and OG is not considered much better wonder how long before Orient Gene gets it’s own ban - USA ?

‘Sensitivity of the Orient-Gene test for asymptomatic testing was evaluated, again by dual testing, in secondary pupils during the transition-to-Delta-era in an important school-based cluster randomized trial during April to June 20212. Based on 32/60 PCR-positives in dual testing that were LFD-positive also, Orient Gene’s sensitivity was estimated at 53% (95% CI: 40% to 66%).

Overlapping 95% confidence intervals (as above) but higher central estimate for Orient-Gene’s sensitivity for asymptomatic self-testing by secondary pupils in the Delta-transition era versus for INNOVA/DHSC in asymptomatic adults in Liverpool’s Moonshot pre-Delta give only modest support for considering that Orient-Gene is an improvement on INNOVA/DHSC.’

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comment-about-lateral-flow-tests-and-evaluation/

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/do-not-use-certain-acon-flowflex-covid-19-tests-fda-safety-communication

Davde, re CD4

What we didn’t know is that they will shut it down it if they don’t find a buyer - that doesn’t sound like they have confidence CD4 is a viable business

Davde,

We can assume CD4 is not performing well as the Chairman has informed us Omega will shut it down if they don’t find a buyer

It’s a strange way to negotiate a sale of an asset to let the market know you place £zero value on same if you can’t sell it?

CD4 could well be a helpful asset for Gates/ Mologic but it may just be a nominal sum taking the view Omega don’t own the IP to CD4 ,they have a license via the owner.

Either way we know today - not via an RNS - that CD4 is going one way or another

It’s all about Food Tolerance moving forward - as it should be in the current position

Dave
Responded in separate thread

Dave

This was 2019/20 accounts , it’s there black & white -we have not seen 2020/21 as yet

They lost £2.5M on the CD4 division

The £800k CD4 sales has not been confirmed as signed contracts, the Chairman has now confirmed CD4 may be worthless, he is now saying last week they may have to shut it down.

You are correct re the balance this being Food Tolerance, there is a business there and it could well generate £3.5M EBITA but it needs investment to grow ,if the BoD advise the market on how they will deliver they may get support

Worth noting , a convertible loan note - death spiral - won’t work due to Omega’s Articles of Association, they need to consider other ways via Trade finance to grow the remaining division.

Dispose / close CD4 which we now know they will do after the Chairman’s letter today - CD4 lost £2.5M last accounting period

We know Food Tolerance generated £3.5M EBITA last year
Corporate / Head Office/Plc costs £1M

So on a cash basis Omega can generate £2.5M a year on a like for like - assume they pay no interest

They won’t move to the new site until they generate further revenue streams be that from the remaining business or via their outsourcing model for Covid tests - If there is a market next October in the EU where they can sell direct to the consumer

The BoD need to drive the Food Tolerance sales, ring fence and use trade finance around via this division - not using Plc equity to raise cash

Proof of concept that they can increase sales / maintain the gross margin and communicate professionally to shareholders / owners of the business

Omega shares may then become investable, if the BoD don’t deliver then Trade or Private Equity will come in for Food Tolerance via a bid for Omega and they lose their £200k a year packages and with just £37k of shares between them they won’t be able to do anything about it

No recognition that they lost £12M of shareholders cash last 24 months ,generated just £600k of Covid testing revenue in that period , lost £2M plus on CD4 which had sales of just £137k but they wanted to raise more money to waste on this failed product line …

No recognition of their horrendous performance

None of that …. Just IF we can’t sell CD4 we will shut it down,not much confidence it’s worth anything - quite remarkable

There was no detailed plan in the placing prospectus just a back of the fag paper outline of where the £7M would go, with only £400k being reinvested into the core remaining business

It’s always someone else’s fault with this dodgy BoD

https://twitter.com/aimissionary/status/1505652084334632963?s=10

Paul , just looking worse case.

Worse case is a 25% Yield based , assuming all other known data is as ?

Was trying to see if I had missed any points to the downside?

Looks a decent risk reward to me

From latest RNS give or take its 50 - 50 split operationally between Russia and Kazakhstan , the latter is fully secure.

Group debt $1.8B has 12 months before refinancing
but Group has $1B of additional funding that is ‘not sanctioned ‘

Unsure on the ‘ split ‘ of the $1.8B but for this debate assume 50 - 50 as above.

Poly will sell its metals to China / Asia and the cash won’t be sanctioned

In effect Poly is covered all angles and worse case commercially it only ends up with Kazakhstan then pro rata we have a 25% yield on the current share price based on current commodity prices ?

We PI ‘s are by large buying in / holding because the Institutions had to / forced to sell

Would we say the above is a fair reflection of where we stand today ?

Open to alternative views, would like to see if I am missing something materially?

Are they supplying DAM in Europe ?
They have EU Home Use, it’s a 440M person market, they have DAM as their partner

What’s the latest with DAM ?

This has not been mentioned by the BoD?

Where are the sales / contracts for EU Home use ?

Nothing stopping them selling them, they have the authority and they say they have agreement that the Chinese who now control Alva will manufacture on their behalf ?

Another example of poor communication by this BoD

If the BoD don’t get a grip here then no auditor will sign off the Full Year accounts - the £2.5M DHSC dispute / continued losses due as much now to CD4

Without their Accounts signed off the AIM team will insist the shares are suspended, the next step is then the Company goes Private

It takes time -I am not up to date with the exact timeline but I thinks it’s around 26 weeks from suspension

It’s not certain IF the BoD get a grip now but the clock is ticking

Suggest this news / share price under 4p - minimum level to raise funds as per Articles of Association and Share Capital Account

Not even Bucket shops will fund at 4p when the market has no faith in this shower

As below sell CD4 drive the Food Tolerance sales

Do now before it’s too late