Member Info for Okehurst1

Squeaky bum time

Kando

Chairman’s statement in annual accounts, indicating news of a restructure end of June 22
We know the trading operations have been restructured at a Entity level - via Companies house filings

It’s just what format ?

That’s my view

The market ‘ knows ‘ something is being worked on by MM one way or another, how do the ‘shorts ‘ exit without getting clobbered ?

THG down 85% from its highs doesn’t leave much left in the tank, the risk capital of the shorts can be better allocated in todays market

Goldy
This is going Private, we will wake up one morning in the near future with a Red dot offer which may entice private equity to try and outbid

But MM has the joker card in his back pocket … no one can take ‘his’ business off him with the Golden Share

MM can’t lose this final round it’s just at what price he comes in with ?

Goldy had some interesting points that were relevant from an operational point of view - it’s good for us not to be in an echo chamber - and the poster kept it clean

The subjects not touched on was cash to grow 3 Growth business, plus MM’s preference?

Personal opinion we are heading for a Buy Out, makes sense on every level, both of the above get settled.

Insiders can retain their equity and at management level can enjoy a
‘ carry ‘ on the growth as a private company, MM moves from
15% to a higher stake without using his own cash ,the Golden Share worry for him has then gone, why has he held on to the GS ?

High chance of a private bid

Goldy, good debate, take on board your points

Think we can agree MM taking the business Private looks highly possible? If he is going to go then now is as good as ever, he owns 15% suggest he would greatly improve the percentage via a structured deal that was driven by his agenda, plus it doesn’t look like he is enjoying the public markets ?

Goldy
Why not sell Nutrition if the price is right, repay debt and Beauty has £1B war chest and they can fund Ingenuity’s growth with cash in a separate entity bringing on board partners ?

It’s going to be a long slog and a tough gig for the BoD funding 3no growth business’s with £500M debt on the balance sheet - and same cash mind -and cost of capital only going one way

IF they can get a buyer for Nutrition at a decent Rev valuation

I don’t want a buyout but directors not buying shares makes me think they are working on something - what would it do for the share price if Matt & John bought £1M of shares ?

I like to read SP’s posts and ditto Goldy’s

It’s good to have other opinions / views

Keep it the discussion civil and it’s cool.

Goldy , being fair Ingenuity is in at zero value, what’s your call on the combined value of balance ? - out of interest ?

I didn’t realise till the other day that Omega had been going for 30 years

No idea how much the accumulated Placings/ Rights tot up to over 30 years ?

Since just before Covid December 19 to now it’s £16M alone - would have been £21M had the full raise gone through

It feels like Omega is a cash cow for whichever directors take over the batton

Fre

Spot on … classic Bowl formation

Always feel a pang for the II’s / hedge funds getting a margin call today
:-)

On 2M a day average shares sold ?

No idea how they are all going to be able to get out of this Bull Hug ?

Next leg to break is £1.30 - without news

Last time I looked 70 odd million shares out on loan, can’t see how they close their positions without getting ripped apart, especially post restructuring news

Mentioned this at 90p, THG long is like shooting fish in a barrel, Shorts are on the ropes

Ste,

On a technical level £1.15 is a ceiling to break and hold - without RNS news on the restructure

It looks poised to break out, it’s going to happen ,just when ,then it’s a run up to £1.30 / £1.40

HH, it was a pleasant surprise that we are actually up on the week and especially the last 6 weeks when the USA market has collectively lost
$6 Trillion - just in that time period

As normal practise the II’s wait until retail has panicked and sells up then they start scooping up, happens every cycle, THG is a good example, how many PI’s capitulated at 70p/80p ?

THG is close to being up 70% off it’s all time lows in the space of a couple of months as the main market has took a big hit

THG entered the bear market very early and is now coming out in advance, the ‘ smart ‘ II’s money is already drifting into the stock

2phevs

Last time I peeked it had fell from 84M shares out on loan but still high relatively speaking

Big exposure for the shorters, they will get crushed as/when THG announce the expected restructure.

Assume Nasdaq could well be 10% away from a 40% top to bottom bear market cycle, the market is getting close to the bottom , of course THG went down before the main tech market and is still down 85% off all time highs but pushing up to next technical level which could well see it move over £1.40

Matt has to move quick IF his game plan is to take private, if he does intend to nick THG on the cheap that window is closing in terms of him saying ‘ the offer is 000 % above last nights close ‘

Going to be an interesting few weeks as this plays out

Assume the BoD sell CD4 by September ,which is their timetable -
and they secure £1.2M , it would be a remarkable result for a business losing £300,000’a month.

Does make you wonder why they didn’t shut the site down when they sold Alva for £600,000 - don’t forget it cost them £400,000 of the £1M to exit Alva so they only netted £600,000

That would have saved the business £3M in cash give or take, as it stands IF they don’t get a buyer this full £2M raise will be used just to plug the losses for the rest of the year

On a separate note, I wonder why they can’t sell the rights to the Covid test to an operator who wants to market for home use Europe ?
Maybe DAM ? Enjoy a license fee for every test sold but DAM fund / make the margin - DAM negotiate with whoever to manufacture

So the £2M new cash needs to be ring fenced to cover the £300,000 of monthly losses until CD4 sold

And the BoD have to win their battle with DHSC to get their accounts signed off otherwise they will be classified as ‘ unqualified ‘ and the AIM team will delist the shares - that’s the rules

2 very big hurdles to get over to survive in its current guise

Are we set for a private take out by MM / SoftBank and the inner circle of PE ?

SoftBank want the bigger stake in Ingenuity but won’t want to pay the option Price?

Just an opinion but feel this is end game here

Market not picked up that DB ( Dutch Baseload) Gas price fell again today - quite sharply from £235 to £173 first thing ,

German Baseload from £224 to £185

Massive daily drops

Much faster than energy traders expected, forward Spot prices same