Member Info for Okehurst1

Hi ProxL

Homeserve has been mentioned numerous times as an example of a current PE buyout offer

I was demonstrating in the post below how their offer was presented and could we see the same approach of multiple data points to support their valuation case ?

THG IPO was £4.5B Pre money, IF the intention is to take private and Matt / his backers went for £3.5B cash plus an internal valuation of £1B plus SoftBank cash , they could argue it’s cash back and a paper ride with Ingenuity - assume they say it goes for a direct quote on Nasdaq

Ingenuity has to be spun off / funded and the rump can then be truly valued, tbh I would be pleased with either of main options be that retain THG quote and spin off Ingenuity or the private route, either way we should all see a decent increase on the current share price

Looking across to Homeserve and their 19th May statement

We can guess any offer for THG will refer to the share price at the time of the offer ?
Point being it may suite insiders to let the share price drift - no need to acquire shares in the market - so the offer as a percentage increase looks impressive
Assuming going private is in their road map ?

‘· The boards of Bidco and HomeServe are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash offer to be made by Bidco to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of HomeServe. The Acquisition is to be effected by means of a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act.

· Under the terms of the Acquisition, HomeServe Shareholders shall be entitled to receive

for each HomeServe Share 1,200 pence in cash

· The Acquisition values the entire issued and to be issued share capital of HomeServe at approximately £4,077 million and represents a premium of approximately:

· 71 per cent. to the Closing Price per HomeServe Share of 704 pence on 23 March 2022 (being the last Business Day prior to the start of the Offer Period);

· 65 per cent. to the volume-weighted average price per HomeServe Share of 728 pence over the three-month period ended 23 March 2022 (being the last Business Day prior to the start of the Offer Period); and

· 52 per cent. to the volume-weighted average price per HomeServe Share of 791 pence over the six-month period ended 23 March 2022 (being the last Business Day prior to the start of the Offer Period)’

Suggest this should have been RNS’d - it’s RNS worthy
not for it to be picked up via linked in

But that would have meant an explanation, hence the silence tells us they are not ready to explain

Vivek comes from B2B background with Salesforce and is used to dealing with Enterprise tech services , he looks a good fit ,not long to wait now for the unveiling of Matts game plan

Private equity fund the buy out of free float @ £3B m/cap
£2.20

Same time, spin off Ingenuity funded by an investment by SoftBank
Quote on Nasdaq market, they throw out a £1B plus new money valuation

Matt says he has achieved a £4B m/cap

1 pencil shares data he finds - much appreciated by all of us

SP, it’s a good point re the value of his stake @ £8 - £128M

Give or take he has seen £100M of value of a marketable security disappear

We can only assume as insider he thinks THG is worth a lot more than currently

Was that not a 900k plus purchase from T Rowe?

Good spot Ste - hard to keep up with these II’s

Gone over the 3% same time

Something brewing

Holy

Interesting thesis

Kando, good point regarding re electing Iain Mc

Touched on this last week, it’s a grey area where a BoD member can buy shares in their own name and ditto via a de facto controlled entity but the former is classed as Director buying but the latter isn’t ?

Throw in the de facto controlled entity is also bidding to buy the business for as cheaply as possible and at the same time as a Director you have to deal with this ‘Bid ‘ - even though it’s from yourself ?

If Iain Mc would have resigned the BoD and then Bid then it would be more transparent, as such we have to speculate.

Suggest we have one of the following Stratagies playing out

Iain Mc’s Bid alongside the Candyman was a ruse to sniff out other bidders knowing all along that no one can buy THG on the cheap as Matt has the Golden Share - for another 15 months
Iain has raised £funds for Matt for the last 12 years this is part of a process to tease out the highest price in the market to take THG ,for then Matt to trump it / join forces and buy out the so called free float

Or

It’s a complete ruse to drive the share price up / attract a bidder to get someone to take out Matt completely

Or

Ruse to drive the share price up / then say the BoD won’t except the low ball bids and announce the restructuring plan which kind of dovetails into us being advised all will be revealed by the end of H1

Tbh I am not 100% which one it is going to be and quite possibly neither does Matt until this plays out

On a positive note the £2M ensures the business should survive this calendar year

Let’s not forget Omega is losing £300,000 a month at CD4 based at Alva
If there is any slippage in the sales process then the Directors will need to use the £2M to fund the shortfall till year end.

Then they have the issue with the £2.5M claim off the DHSC, without that being resolved they won’t get their accounts signed off and you can’t maintain a quote on the LSE with Qualified Accounts

Selling CD4 - even for £1
Settling DHSC at zero cost

Clear those hurdles and the business has an opportunity, is it worth buying shares today ? Too high risk, get the above squared first.

Post crossed SP

Fully agree, someone must be doing the rounds raising $$

The word is out, follow the £money

Something going on, a game plan being played out

The whales who backed the IPO, sold, shorted , have closed their remaining shorts position's.

There are some short CFD’s but they look part of 60/40 hedge plan rather than the main thrust of the money

Belerion disclosing skin in the game alongside Shorts bailing out plus II’s going long / maintaining long - not selling out into a spike - follow the big boys money all the time, especially the ones on the ‘inside ‘

Dp,

Iain Mc is Belerion, he left William Currie group to manage.
and raise money for Matt for many years as a Board member of THG

In affect Iain controls Belerion who are acting as his proxy and himself as de facto controller via this vehicle

Firewall - snippet below

‘Corporate executives have this month bought shares in their companies at a rate not seen since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic in what some Wall Street analysts said was an encouraging sign for the US stock market.

Between the start of the month and May 24, insider buying at S&P 500 companies has been the strongest since March 2020, according to figures from VerityData. For the broader Russell 2000 index, there have been more insider buyers than sellers this month for the first time since March 2020, VerityData said.

Despite retail investors pulling out of the stock market and the looming threat of a slowdown or recession, “corporate insiders are holding a non-consensus view across most sectors and [are] actively buying the dip”, analysts at JPMorgan said in a May 27 note, adding that the share purchases were encouraging for the direction of stock markets’

Suggest today at THG was an ‘ insider buying ‘ just dressed another way

Always interesting to see the comments on the retail investors actions vs Institutional Investors , couple Iain Mc buying 1% plus - whichever way it’s presented - alongside the shorts bailing, suggest we little folk need to follow the $money

https://on.ft.com/3N4Aqq4

So we have a member of the BoD indirectly actively accumulating shares in THG, 1% now breached

Appears to be fine line between Belerion’s de- facto controller being on the THG BoD and Belerion building a stake / offering to buyout all share holders but there is Chinese Wall ( in affect ) between Belerion / Iain Mc the THG BoD - this is Director buying whichever way it’s dressed is what am getting at

Either way nice to see a bit of ‘ skin in the game ‘ we can now be informed daily of their prior days trading in the stock

Appreciate it’s a %% of sales

After the changes to the Avacta website yesterday as pointed out by other posters this could get very interesting IF Big Al pulls off at a decent level

Any views

Macy’s up 20% yesterday

USA retail/ consumer stocks had one of their best days all round

Window closing for would be buyers of our THG shares - us PI’s selling on the cheap whilst they build up their stakes

Due to the Form 8’s we can see plenty of big Whales below the 3% limit
THG has a fair smattering

So the only real free float is ‘ ours ‘

Look at what happened last couple of days as the weak holders bailed and took 25% below current price , THG could add a further 50p to 90p in a blink of an eye, sit tight , buckle up

Once MM clears 75% he can hoover up the 25% via scheme of arrangement if need be

Think he’s a stalking horse to put a £2 bid in …it will get refused

Then Iain Mc pops up with ‘his ‘£2.25