Member Info for Okehurst1

100%

Closing out shorts after a nice gain

Ride out the long

Goldy, not sure they do

Candyman has to inform of his position, he may well bid knowing there is no chance MM will except his terms - personal terms

It’s won’t be the price per share that Matt won’t accept it will be his personal terms and that of other insiders

It’s beneficial for Matt/ insiders to take the lowest offer they can possibly get away with so the cost of capital for the new money is lower and Matts Carry clicks in at a lower level
Ditto institutional insiders who get warrants in the private entity as their reward for sticking with it

All this has to be addressed it’s not just what bone/ scraps us little people get thrown

Good point

Kings Street loaded up at £1.21 - net net

XXX, but Matt wants to ‘ roll ‘ his equity into the new private vehicle , he’s not selling out to walk away it’s just a different vehicle without the Quote

His issue is cost of capital with rising interest rates and his own
‘Carry ‘ after PE get their agreed return, plus ensuring new money is treated the same as old money ( existing equity post private)

Then it’s tactics on what can the insiders / PE get away - their goals are then joined - to buy out the free float which is us PI’s

The share price touching £1.50 then losing 33% in 2 weeks helps indirectly soften us up to take a lower Bid, in affect £2.25 to the muted £2.50 looks attractive to a percentage of the 25% free float shareholders vs a highly manipulated quoted share

Rock, if there is no agreed Bid then we await the restructuring which is due to be announced before the end of June - our Chairman reiterated in the Annual Accounts

Spinning off Ingenuity with SoftBank taking a stake becomes a real possibility, the newly appointed CEO for this business points to something big happening at this division.

Appreciate it’s not what traders want but for LTH’s it’s another alternative that is also attractive medium term

Picked up a another chunk @ £1.0387 today

Will accumulate more at 93p IF we get that low, agree not without risk though

To clarify ,Ian Mc has not walked away, he’s had a Bid of £1.75
rebuffed, he could still increase ?

So we are just waiting on the Candyman, if he doesn’t Bid he will
lose all credibility, he may well submit a Bid say £2 and be in the same boat as Ian Mc, the BoD rebuff.

At that point no extension is my take ?

This could well be the scenario?

The BoD announce the planned restructuring ?

SP/ Rock

We will know for sure within the next 48hrs, no benefit arguing about it, we will find out one way or another - agree the market is saying no deal but still a very slim chance an offer may arrive that MM thinks is worthwhile to open up official talks

Agree

Just took another 60k shares
2 @5k
1@ 50k

Almost same price, usually wider spread

Blinky

Agree with your reasoning short /medium value re bid take out value
I had £3B to £3.5B but we are not that far apart at our higher / lower range
From a wider market point of view it’s a reasonable approach

Put aside the possible Bid we do have the potential restructuring which may create shareholder value

I am waiting to see if we hit the £1 level to accumulate further, at these levels THG looks a decent investment.

The big lesson for us PI’s is don’t invest in IPO’s, especially with a small free floating stock, once the investment banks clear their cheques for raising the IPO cash we become their next product to make $$$ from

Gravy train

We have to join the dots

Sofina are a serious THG insider who are accumulating
Belerion through Kings Street are a serious insider

Both adding

Up to 9.46% , nice show of confidence from an insider

Prox mentioned it the other day, the share price is not the company

Think Matts a top entrepreneur who has built a business generating
£2B p/a and the sum of the parts is certainly worth more than £1.11p
today, don’t think even the shorts think it’s dead duck business, it’s just a trading opportunity for them to make a turn.

I have no problem with Eye/ any of the shorts, whatever we say be that bullish or bearish it’s all down to which way the Whales go for their short term punt, suggest us PI’s stay civil, share info be that good or bad or whatever our trade is.

Personally I think it’s a steal at this level, took my another slug at 5k clips as mentioned below - just after my post

Same again tomorrow, weirdly I don’t mind if it touches £1 this is an opportunity to pick up stock, in my eyes it’s mean averaging as am not good enough to be a trader and no idea where the bottom is but the big boys manipulating this share is providing medium / long term opportunities to little PI like myself

Eye

Taking another £50k before close of play in 5k clips

Hi Eye
Being genuine
Mentioned Last week been picking up £50k a day in 5k share clips
( it was £49k around 1.50pm)

Down last week of course so not worked out yet but here for the longer haul unless decent bud comes off
Took £50k first thing at £1.19 ish average so called that wrong
same again 5k clips

Picked up a clip of 5k shares first thing and same again within last 30mins
I like the business and happy to hold but will review if ( big IF) a bid comes in

Will have a nibble tomorrow if it keeps falling

B1inky

Don’t think us PI’s have any say on the share price, we can see that from the Form 8’s

It appears many of the II’s are hedging their positions as no one really knows as Ste says - do agree the continual drops indicates no bid but let’s see where we stand by Thursday

Think so Jimmy

The ‘ carry ‘ & new money Pari passu
Matt won’t do a deal where PE can exit their cash first
if something went wrong

The cost of capital then becomes a focal point for him ,every 1% hurts, not sure on the cost of the coupon but there are some smart corporate boys in his team who will know the sweet spot

Of course we don’t know what Matt is thinking but if he is going to go it’s weighted in his favour at this point in time, he’s calling the shots on timetable, continue with quote or not ?

I am happy to wait , I like the business and I think Matt is a top entrepreneur but SP is right it’s now down to what Matt wants

Suggest we are missing the ‘ carry ‘ that Matt gets IF he takes Private

For example if he can cut a deal with PE that once they get 3X return on their cash he then takes 50% of the upside above this figure, which is quite the norm with this type of structure, plus it’s super tax efficient.

His ‘ red line ‘ will be wanting new money treated like existing
ie PE don’t get first Dibs IF things went wrong

If he gets the two items above agreed then it’s just what price £mcap to throw at the free float and what they can get away with ?

Once they nail 75% they can start to mop up the 25% via scheme of arrangement - it’s messy but doable

Not saying he will 100% go down this route just an opinion on why it works financially for Matt to go Private.

It’s fair comment with the posts below, if Matt is taking Private then he is staying on board with PE partners but it will all be about his deal and what ‘ they ‘ can get away with paying us PI’s

But if he doesn’t take the ‘ gold coins ‘ the eventual demerger should see us PI’s do ok ?

If it’s a fair price I am ok with the prior (£4B) and if not ,happy to hold out for the latter