Member Info for Okehurst1

Avacta have no debt

4D balance sheet has been badly managed, their 12 month high was
£180M m/cap

They should have raised capital at £180M rather than borrow $ from a loan shark and enter administration 52 weeks later for £10M cash, we can only guess that insider shareholders knew 4D was a long way off revenue stream / maybe doubts on their IP and made the call to prefer to lose their investment than sink new cash? - something not right over there

Back to Avacta, it’s looking highly likely Ava6000 works, throw in the rest of the IP, our ‘ problem ‘ will be offers from big Pharma that the BoD may find attractive on a personal level, personally I hope we can maintain our quote and enjoy the next part of the Avacta journey

… that’s the problem with the ‘ shorts ‘ trading Thesis

You cant argue with Data/ Maths - you can throw in Al’s house or the LFT debacle and even the lack of commercial savvy of Big Al, not even the most avid LTH’s could defend him

But as a scientist who has been on this journey for years and years he’s close to pulling this off , not because he thinks he will it’s because the data is showing he is delivering the holy grail for chemo treatment, it’s there in black and white.

The shorts are going to get toasted here, as soon as the biopsy report drops, with a blink of an eye they are liquidated and more, its going to hurt.

Steve, it’s now set up if they want to do deals they can do.

In affect they can raise £ for each subsidiary independent of the PLC, that’s good business practise.

Personal opinion, I can’t see Matt giving up his Golden Share just yet, he can build JV partnerships with the likes of SoftBank within Ingenuity for example, they fund for Ingenuity equity, not further THG stock.

If cost of capital is too expensive for a PE deal to work then Matt / advisors have gone with plan A and believe they can make it work better without debt to buy out us PI’s , fair enough.

Thanks for sharing A/Steel

Goldy

This wasn’t about £1.70 for us

The structure of a deal wasn’t right for Matt/ insiders

They won’t accept a Debt funded deal - who would in this climate ?
Iain Mc & Candyman didn’t have £B’s in their bank accounts

The ‘old ‘ money being the insiders left behind needed to be treated the same as the new money … plus warrants & Carry on top

Can’t see a PE deal short term with a rising cost of capital in general market
think that boat has sailed and we move on.

Restructuring, remove Golden Share so we can enjoy Premium
Listing, we can then be included in ETF’s

That will steady the ship but Matt may be nervous to lose the golden share for time being.

Ocado are not a competitor to THG - different model

They licence out their robotic software, THG partner / use

Contd ..

‘It added: "International expansion will add scale and diversification and in support of the rating, which is premised on replicating the operational and economic success of its UK retail operations internationally."

Ocado believes the surge in online food shopping seen during the pandemic is set to continue betting on long-term growth despite a short-term slowdown caused by a cost-of-living squeeze.

Investment should help cut the amount of time it takes to get Ocado Solutions’ highly automated warehouses up and running.

During the pandemic, Ocado Retail, its joint venture with Marks & Spencer, struggled with capacity and was forced to temporarily close its website in March 2020 after being overwhelmed by orders.

Ocado Solutions currently has 11 partnerships and it expects its clients to generate over £20bn in sales over the next few years.

Ocado estimates that its own revenue and profits will reach £6.3bn and £750m respectively.

The company was founded by three former Goldman Sachs bankers in 2000 and has hardly made a profit since. Management argues the company is investing for growth and Ocado has raised significant amounts of cash over the past two decades to fuel development of its technology.

The latest fundraising follows a drop in the share price, which has nearly halved since the start of the year as customers returned to pre-pandemic shopping habits.

Shares were flat at 831.68p on Monday.’

Firewall,

‘The loss-making grocer Ocado is raising £575m in fresh funding to expand its technology business, despite signs of inflation slowing the online retail revolution.

News of the cash call came as ratings agency Fitch hit the company with a downgrade and warned of mounting risks at its international business.

Ocado announced plans to sell shares to institutional and individual investors after markets closed on Monday and said it had secured a £300m loan from a consortium of banks.

The company gathered enough orders to cover the share sale within about half an hour, according to terms seen by Bloomberg. Ocado said members of its leadership team, including chief executive Tim Steiner, will buy new shares as part of the placing.

The cash injection will be used to support the growth of its Ocado Solutions business, which provides automated warehouse technology to retail partners.

While Ocado is best known in Britain as an online grocer, its main focus today is selling robotic warehouse technology to retailers worldwide, such as Kroger in the US and Coles in Australia. The group said it needs fresh cash to fund investment as demand for its tech grows.

But the fundraising came as credit rating agency Fitch warned investors of an "increased execution risk" within Ocado's international segment, as operations ramp up more slowly than expected.

The agency downgraded Ocado’s rating from 'stable' to 'negative' and said profits are now forecast to come by November 2024, one year later than initially planned’

Ocado partner with THG/ Ingenuity and their robotic fulfilment centres

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/20/ocado-hit-ratings-downgrade-raises-575m-international-push/

CAW

Interesting point on the synthetic shorts mixed in, no wonder us PI’s don’t have a chance in this game, it’s like double the sell pressure on the stock

IF ODX can sell CD4 for even £1M then they are a profitable business
with Food Tolerance making a decent margin - assuming sales maintained ditto GP

- Sell CD4 , remove the £300k losses
- Resolve DHSC £2.5M claim
- They need the above sorted to ensure the accounts are signed off as a going concern
A company can’t have a quote on the LSE with qualified accounts ,they will be suspended firstly then lose the quote if they can’t satisfy the AIM team
It’s pretty onerous, they need sign off

It doesn’t mean they go bust btw but there is no public market for the shares

Suggest the O/D is not the immediate issue - important as it is

CD4 is the catalyst, fingers crossed.

Deserves a bump this post

Thanks for sharing Amann

Goldy
Follow the money

The insiders are taking longs 2:1 shorts

It’s squeeze the PI dry , get all the weak holders / anyone on margin
Then close

Ride the long

We would all like a bit of that if we had the info

Handy for him the AGM was 2 working days before he pulled his Bid

Amazing how he knew he was going to pull out

One Director been trading

Iain Mc … 2 long to 1 short
Like a day trader in the stock from we saw last few weeks

When we were much higher he was smashing out the shorts
Ok he took longs as well but reckon that tells us where he thinks it’s going short term - he was right of course

No idea how that was allowed … Bid the Business as a director and short same time … bin the bid and clean up on the short

Sit back on the long

Unbelievable

John - agree

It’s cash burn on this one - £200M a year on Capex

Splitting off Ingenuity will help here - sell stake to SoftBank
USA placing as when

We can then measure cash better re the £2B a year revenue

Good find Goldy,thanks for sharing , your right.

M/cap £1B = IPO raise
Revenue up 100%
£500M cash in bank

What an opportunity to accumulate

Thanks Goldy

What’s your take of the average fixed cost charged per annum per website on the platform year 2?
- the pure SaaS element ?

Any ideas?

Nb no access to data with Amazon

Goldy

Am I right in saying they have fee of £250k per annum per client for the Ingenuity platform and the target this year was net gain around 90 ish
So 20 odd new net increase per quarter
£100M to £116M ARR December 2022? Just for access to the platform

Handling / delivery is 6% profit plus costs to Amazon 35% cost - and access to data with Amazon - they don’t break this down, it’s what you pick up from their clients

So for us we just need to know how many net clients per month ? Growth per quarter etc

Any views ? Am I missing something ?