The Short Case for Avacta - Tom W27 Jun 2022 12:31
Whilst we await the Biopsy report.
Thought it was helpful to do a de brief of Tom W’s view on Avacta, thought it might be helpful to the BB
- I subscribe to his daily pod cast, mindful of being in my own echo chamber.
Generally speaking Tom speaks a lot of common sense and gets a lot right in general business however I think he spends limited time researching each investment he recommends.
One such example being SkinBio(SBTX)
On this call he’s down a whopping 75% - £120M m/cap to £32M today
Tbf the business is interesting but it’s trying to flog a product on social media but has just 375no Insta following ( Axis Biotix) and has limited capital to promote.
Tom thinks this company will have a serious £market cap a couple years out, more than Avacta is worth on todays valuation
It’s a powder you mix with water and helps your microbiome and helps with auto immune skin issues.
Back to Avacta, his call is Avacta runs out of money 2nd Half 2023 and will need to raise £money, so his thesis states it’s a straight 12 month runway and Avacta will need more cash, which again to be fair none of us can argue against.
However - this is the lack of research on his side which he demonstrates as above - he suggests the share price has to revert to Pre Covid but he discounts the £50M for R&D which will have been spent by July 2023 and attributes no commercial benefit to same.
Any time / day now Avacta could drop the Biopsy RNS report, if as expected that confirms what we think the data will tell us it, Avacta can start negotiating a deal to generate revenue from a partnership from bigger Pharma ,which will provide cash upfront / or we get a Bid for the whole platform - possibility
Toms short is then toast, if it’s a big £number the downside for the shorts trying to close will be brutal, the ‘upside ‘ for Toms traders is not that good against a potential serious loss that will exceed their stake money, it will make Toms 75% loss on SBTX look like deal of the century.
Re Jupiter, suggest they may be running a long / short strategy,
3:1 long / short , which is quite normal of many institutions- beyond us PI’s but they can make a bonus for the managers on the short whilst holding the long, as such I don’t read much into their short.
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