Member Info for Okehurst1

Top post Energy, they know ,

‘It works.’

No red dots … it’s what we want for the time being ,other than latest on USA trials, until the big update.

Noticed there was around 75k in aggregate dumped in first hour or so then the £140k around lunch time to try and shove it again
May be different traders or synthetic shorts and exchange(s) consolidating
orders

Either way … buyers moved in ( did so myseif for 51k shares )and hoovered up, guessing we will see a bit of this as the shorts try and push it down.

Tricky game for them as/when Avacta announce USA trials commencing and who knows what else, their downside could be 10X on a bad day for maybe a few pence from here on the down side and buyers picking up the slack as they sell what they don’t own.

Agree, a PE driven Management Buy Out

But only after DHSC / CD4 sorted and invest proceeds from latter into sales / marketing

Zero debt and remaining asset growing - even 20% p/a would do for PE

Not sure if Jag /Simon will pay £20M headline

They will try and nick this at a lower level, let’s not forget they are a dodgy BOD, as bad as they get on AIM

Should still be higher than current value ?Will they pitch at £12M to £15M ?

As a private co they have £3M cash a year before their cut - based on last accounts

PE will charge 10% interest, the BoD will have a carry in place
not in their interest to overpay

Another bidder may pop up knowing that the BoD took a nose bleed from private investors ? Who knows? Either way this BoD look after themselves and not their shareholders

Ophidian… spot on

£1.3B cash buy out

Single line biotech co, same point in time as Ava6000 - and we have a lot more in the Locker on top

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AZN/astrazeneca-to-acquire-teneotwo-and-t-cell-engager-pm26pxjfb8c9q3p.html

2 years ago investors placed £50M plus into Avacta with the premise a large chunk would go to R&D Therapeutics

Here we are today with 50% of the £cash still in the bank and Ava6000 on the cusp of something very very special - for patients and Avacta shareholders alike

There may be some thinking they will sell and buy back but after the last data release from Avacta the risk / reward is swaying towards Avacta pulling this off.

As such money on the sidewalk is picking up stock and this could bounce to £1 and it then costs to get back in .

I have no problem with shorters / traders, personally I am just playing the long game at these levels as their trading opens opportunities to accumulate.

Ha! Hi Zoom

Bit of mean averaging , looks like 70k dump -spread out-, caused this mornings drop

Don’t thinks it’s MM’s as such, just taking advantage as/when , quite often no volume

Just picked up another 10k plus £1,100

Plenty of stock on offer

Just picked up 4 clips of 10k

Mean averaging, take advantage of the fun and games and sit back

Mr R / Bein, agree with your comments below.

Data / funding plans, both will come together, one after the other, be that linked to moving Therapeutics to a Nasdaq listing, maybe leaving Diagnostics on AIM

The big variable being a takeover.

Meantime, sit back.

Some risk here and no £quantum on ‘ significant ‘

IF and big IF , Jag can be believed then they could well generate a decent £sum of cash from CD4 - The BoD do have form using superlatives so pinch of salt required

Then deal with DHSC - would they be thinking we can get out of it with a £650k hit and cash match what they will receive ?
Speculating but they need to do a deal on the £2.5M claim

Assume they end up with a chunk of change they can place into sales / marketing, they don’t need the £OD

Jag knows the remaining business, he was the MD, lives local to the FT site, fits on to their game plan after ditching Colin

Their last annual accounts highlighted the cash from FT, if they can grow this business and maintain margin then they have a decent business

Suggest a management buy out would be their exit as the BOD have limited equity, makes sense as their final move.

Avacta add Affimer tech to Ava6000 then patent?

Assume the Affimer supercharges Ava6000 which it could do …

Imagine what that’s £worth

* 30% down

Does highlight why Avacta would find a Nasdaq listing attractive

Point Shares up 20% this year vs market 30% ?

It’s either move to Nasdaq at the right time or be taken out by big Pharma

Suggest Binary outcome for Avacta

Hi Kate
Not too sure Tbh but you would think it’s £1M plus

Assume they complete the sale and can negotiate a deal with DHSC re the £2.5M we know the FT division is profitable

Back to the last annual accounts … they spent 16% of sales on Sales/Marketing in this division - will be their only remaining business

Assume for every £1 sales growth requires 16p for sales / marketing and they can generate £2M to invest in FT , then on a rule of thumb they could arguably increase sales to £20M , at this point they are generating £6M cash less £1M head office costs / plc

Lots of ifs and buts … there is a business inside ODX they just need to sort DHSC after CD4 sale, still high risk and a punt at this point in time

‘will include a significant up-front cash payment ‘

Has to be £seven figures ? £1M to wherever …

On a positive note ;

CD4 sale looks imminent / fingers crossed
Abingdon win their case so ODX should receive their £650k
Monthly losses removed post CD4 sale

Remaining business generating £2M free cash per annum
based on their last annual accounts - if we strip out £1M head office / Plc costs

It’s then just down to the £2.5M DHSC claim

Ace thread btw, thanks for sharing the info MrA/CO/

There has to be a ‘risk’ that a Bid will come in for Avacta assuming the data from DE3 is as we expect on the positive side.
The approach could happen any time after the data from DE2 - there is a an argument that DE3 may not be required but we have to go with it at the moment

The initial Bid could we’ll spark a contested bidding war

Personally I am hoping we can avoid the above and enjoy the journey but realistic to how big Pharma works, just can’t see us holding out to make Nasdaq