Member Info for Okehurst1

Nice 1st world problem to have egh ?

Are TW shorts on the first step of getting ripped apart ?

It’s looking that way

Suggest Jupiter have a long / short position ,personally I’ve discounted them - they could close but maybe not

However the TW crew are PI’s, they will have synthetic shorts, it’s going to be brutal for this bunch.

It’s fair comment off SP, us PI’s should be treated information wise on par with Sofina, Softbank, Balderton and Jupiter, keep us all in the loop.

Hi Captain, thanks for best wishes, take on board your valid points.

Thanks Buckie, yes v interesting

Risk / reward for TW crew is maybe 10% upside IF they can push to 90p but their downside is maybe 500% if as it looks ..: it works

Any LTH thinking to sell / buy back cheaper can’t buy back in volume wise at what they sold for as other LTH step at 95 to 97p and add

So we end up with a stagnant share price, personally I don’t think it matters, you believe or you don’t, if you don’t your gambling big time it doesn’t work at all which could be very expensive, you don’t just lose your stake money it’s X multiples on top

LTH we just lose our stake money

I lost £40,000 on Omega last year, swore to myself I would never go back and I have done so with an average 3.4p - I should really leave the table
Anyway back in with £20k, my call.

I know it’s a punt and I don’t trust the BoD as far as I could throw them

However for the first time their medium term agenda is aligned with shareholders ( not their long term ) because we stopped them raising the £millions that would have kept their soft jobs going

As such , selling CD4, dealing with DHSC , focusing on FT , they have to make it work if they want their salaries.

So just before Abingdon settlement / CD4 disposal news they drop themselves an incentive scheme that clicks in on 12p a share, we know , they know FT generates £3M cash a year at last accounts

Omega could end up best case be valued today as its net cash next
3 months and FT generating £3M a year is for ‘ free’ plus they have shed loads of tax losses thanks to Alva / CD4

Do I think it’s worth 12p? I would say no ,but this BoD are so out for themselves they either have an MBO funded by PE on the table or they know FT could do £20M a year and generate £6M a year cash and one way or other their 12p comes home

Long way to go to get my money back but these guys have an agenda that we don’t fully know as yet.

Caley, not sure we can trust this bunch including Jag

Think there is a trade here - risk reward - but tbh I don’t believe a word from Jag / Chairman, let’s not forget they tried to dilute us PI shareholders massively but we collectively beat them, which in turn made them have to work to extract value for us and them, not just dine out off big £placings
The BoD and shareholders are now more aligned financially

The strategy they are delivering is the one many of us were calling for before the disposing of Alva, the BoD were to forced down this route, selling loss making CD4 and focus on FT

Saying all that, feeling slightly more positive.

Good point re the 12p incentive scheme

CD4 completing & proceeds (£value) next.

Kate

Think Captains post is reasonable one - to counter mine
No problem anyone testing my info, Tbf Captain called ODX BoD long before anyone else

£3M min (£6M would be amazing )plus for CD4
Plus the £1.65M to £2M in bank after Abingdon payment
Throw in tax losses
DHSC case settled - assume no £payment

Lots of hurdles to jump but IF the above came off - wishful thinking I know but Omega being valued as a cash shell @ £7M m/cap today
So what value does the market place on £10M FT generating £2M net ?
£10M plus ? maybe £12M ? Held back by poor BoD reputation?

£17M m/cap ? Top end but feel closer to £14M to £15M

Captain is on the money at 6P to 7p , still a 1 bagger from today but not without risk

As per RNS

• Up to six clinical trial sites in UK:
• Active sites: St James’ Leeds, The Royal Marsden,
London and The Christie, Manchester.
• The Beatson, Glasgow and the Freeman, Newcastle now open and screening patients.
• Starting dose with cohort 1 was 80 mg/m2 AVA6000 (which is equivalent to 54 mg/m2 of Doxorubicin).
• First patient dosed on 11th August 2021 at The Royal Marsden.
• Dose escalated February 2022 to 120 mg/m2 and second cohort progressing well.
• US IND approved by FDA in November 2021:
• Two US clinical trial sites being initiated and should contribute to the dose escalation phase.

Mr A

Let’s celebrate the stage 4 patient who had the 120mg /m2 dose in February who is progressing well and still alive , IF at this stage patients who require a life saving and heavy operation to cut out a tumour / or pregnant woman are excluded from the trial , that makes sense.

One for the future

Captains post re £900k cash burn of the recent placing monies made me think ‘ significant’ may well be the £3M to £6M receipt for CD4
why would they fund the losses, they must have known CD4 value was higher - than the £losses

Due to Alva being sold for £650k net and CD4 losing £225k a month I personally didn’t put much faith in the latter commanding a relative decent sales price.

Assume best case for this example

£6M CD4
£1M cash in hand
£3M gross profit p/a from FT less £1M head office / plc costs could be lower
Add accumulated tax losses on the balance sheet worth say 20p/£
And we know 16p of sales marketing produces £1 of sales which generates
37% - being the £3M in the accounts from £8M in sales
so generating £2M a year free cash
Add £650K from Abingdon

Its then the £2.5M DHSC overhang but IF CD4 goes for decent £number
(£3M to £6M )then based on above it looks cheap at £7M m/cap

A punt at the moment on the the 2 unknowns above though

Mr A

Say it was a colon tumour - polyp turned cancerous

If the patient had that removed, over 10mm, especially lower bowel they will be at high risk of having to have to an ileostomy fitted or colostomy - the latter being permanent

It a serious operation, generally 3 weeks plus in hospital often in critical care, the onocologists won’t even consider chemotherapy until the patient recovers - considered one of the toughest Op’s you can go through, quite often the sigmoid colon is removed, the Op itself has a high fatal rate

Pregnant woman, you see why the safety committee excluded this group, obvious reasons of course

It’s not to say they wouldn’t bring these groups back into the mix once trials conclude but think we can say it’s explainable at this stage

Rich provided a peer review paper to present his case, if you have a contra paper that you can share saying the opposite it would be helpful for us all, if it’s just your opinion that’s fine but it is just that.

Rich .. apologies Richob :-)

Thanks for posting the link below Richnob

Does this not settle the discussion? Paragraph below

Unless anyone can counter with a peer review paper ?

‘Expression of FAP in Tumors

Normal tissues have low and generally undetectable levels of FAP expression. However, FAP is overexpressed in many tumor tissues, including breast (40–43), colorectal (44–46), pancreatic (47–50), lung (51–53), brain (54–56), intrahepatic bile duct (57), and ovarian (58–61) cancers. In addition, high levels of FAP expression can be detected in some tumors that are derived from non-epithelial tissues, such as melanoma (2, 62) and myeloma (63). In these tumors, FAP overexpression is typically observed in the interstitium, which has led to FAP being considered a universal marker for CAFs, although FAP expression can also be detected in gastric carcinoma (64–66), pancreatic carcinoma (67) and melanoma (2) cells.’

Helpful £650k ish

IF Jag can settle / win with DHSC that’s a helpful £2.5M off the negative side
Plus whatever from CD4, some have mentioned £6M , after Alva going for £650k net I am a wee bit muted on the value but maybe they can get £3M ?Who knows?

Then we have FT which is generating £3M cash on last audited accounts
at which point Omega is making £2M a year if those numbers/ Margins hold
Head office / plc was £1M in accounts

In theory they could have £4M cash in bank
Remaining division grossing £3M a year generating £2M free cash
Plus some serious accumulated tax losses

All for £7M m/cap

It’s only the distrust of the BoD that this is at the price it is,however once the balance sheet tidied up as above and the BoD will go for an MBO, gut feel £15M m/cap if they can get away with it

Still a one bag at 3p

Hants, fair doo’s being honest with your personal trading strategy, selling and hoping to buy back at a lower price - a trade is a trade

On my side am hoping to buy /top up further shares from anyone selling up and the offer is 95/97, 90p would be a bonus tbh as it’s difficult to call the bottom when you want volume in an AIM share, mean average works for me.

With a rich vein of news due which could instigate an upwards re rate the volume on the offer won’t be around at this level is my take, it’s then the price as the shorts try to close out?

Who would sell Hants ? That’s the issue

Shorting this one after the latest RNS’s is extremely risky, the downside could be brutal IF data holds to where we think it will be, coupled against that buyers on the sidewalk move in to sweep up when it drops to 95/97 offer - I will do myself if that happens

Gut feel … we bob around £1 until the next bit of data being released on Ava6000 and then the market makes it’s call

Looks like the push by the shorts fizzled out as multiple buyers came in as the shares dipped below 97p on the Offer earlier this week

Problem for the synthetic shorts ,they have a ‘cost of capital ‘and they can see the above in action, as such they are sitting there hoping for bad news knowing good news - for patients - for shareholders could see them take a serious hit on their position

Lack of no news every day puts them under more pressure, wonder when they bottle it and try and close?

Reckon Tom - W gets out first without cracking and leaves his minions to get wrecked

Unless your a trader who would sell today ?