Member Info for Okehurst1

The BoD control 30%

CEO focuses on sales,/ marketing
Tom the other large BoD holder manages the factory

T

THG manage Rev B distribution in Australia and USA
I wonder if they will try what Next have done at Joules ?
Take a strategic stake ?

The BoD have 30% though, they may fight hard to retain control and fund keeping control

With a £27M factory , inventory, £200M of sales surely value here at £25M m/cap ?

Am at 13p average now, just picked up at 8p
In quite heavy for me now.

Personal view not changed, this is about inventory and the value of same, it’s a non cash item, ditto bad debt provision

All about the £40M credit facility now, sort that and they are away or they are going to have to be bought out on the cheap

THG / ELF must be licking their lips

Ok they did take some cash off the table at 20p ish

….£85M in 12 months

Close on a 95% hit

Positioning, selling hoping to buy back lower, panic sells by PI’s

Looks like we hit the bottom at 15.93 yesterday

Jupiter have a stake worth just £5M, not sure these guys are calling the shots the same anymore

Does look like they may well have parked on 10%

So the bulk of the selling down to them, none of the other II’s dropped below a notifiable percentage

You wouldn’t have your money being managed by Jupiter but it’s becoming a good call to trade / buy in when they have to sell shares to cover redemptions

Wonder if they have stopped at 10%?

Volume dried up, could well be ?

£90M entry price
£9M exit

Rev B £50M m/cap
ELF £1.6B m/cap

You would only take a 90% haircut to cover redemptions

Good point

Look Rev B’s hair products via Superdrug as an example
https://www.superdrug.com/hair/hair-revolution/b/407043

Then compare with Olaplex

https://uk.olaplex.com/products/olaplex-no-4-bond-maintenance-shampoo

Olaplex charge out at £28 and Rev B £10, the former is a branded make, Rev B have designed/ produced/ manufactured their own bonded hair treatment range mirroring Olaplex but at big discount

Trust Pilot have Rev B at 77% excellent

The Rev B web site usage continues to grow month on month as customers buy from a store and also top up from home - we can surmise this as 55% of traffic is direct search

https://www.similarweb.com/website/revolutionbeauty.com/

£50M m/cap vs it’s competitor ELF on £1.6B, the market has this wrong

https://www.superdrug.com/make-up/e-l-f-cosmetics/b/404054

E.L.F are a direct competitor even in Superdrug

52 week high for them
52 week low for us

Market has got this wrong

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/e-l-f-beauty-elf-131501144.html

Rev B competitor who are smashing it in USA ,
Gross margins 67%

Market a whopping $2Billion

Revenue £360M vs Rev B £220M

So $2B m/cap vs Rev B just $60M m/cap - we may even have the same gross margin in H2 with the full benefit of our own manufacturing business

Why anyone wants to list in U.K. is beyond me

2Phevs, agree regarding stretched II’s

As regards to Rev B, let’s just hope the BoD were being truthful with the RNS last week - it was an RNS not social media and the BoD control 30% equity it’s not in their interest to £raise

‘As at 31 July 2022, the Group had net debt of £21.2m driven by an increase in stock, working capital and capex requirements. The Group has a £40m revolving credit facility which the directors believe provides sufficient liquidity for the future’

If they are and the companies inventory is relatively high compared to current m/cap then we head back up

No TR1 this week as yet ?

How long can II’s hide behind their trading positions?

Any ideas ?

I’ve picking up stock every day, I didn’t expect 16.25p

Personal view
They have sufficient liquidity, they know inventory is relatively high, we know shelf is high in their product groups, they are also forecasting £200M plus Rev and £18M plus EBITA
I an taking the latter with a pinch of salt
Unless the BoD are outright lying - and Tbf they could be - then with a high inventory they don’t need to raise cash via equity, plenty of other ways to raise cash

‘As such, we now expect the first half of the year to deliver low single digit revenue growth versus H1 FY22, resulting in a small adjusted EBITDA loss for the six month period ending 31 August 2022. For the full year to 28 February 2023, we now expect between £215m - £225m net sales and adj. EBITDA of between £18m - £20m.

As at 31 July 2022, the Group had net debt of £21.2m driven by an increase in stock, working capital and capex requirements. The Group has a £40m revolving credit facility which the directors believe provides sufficient liquidity for the future’

…. Or notifiable short opened, in fact no short over .5%
Saying that on £50M m/cap and down 90% from peak and
70% down in 7 days the shorts can’t see too much upside from here?

We should see a TR1 today ?

# ROW Rev forecast £110M
U.K. £90M

I am in THG and Rev, agree with the gist of A/steels post

One area of note though is that the City can’t get its head around Ingenuity and it’s cash burn, coupled with the CEO who controls the businesses via a Golden Share turning down a £1.70 Bid just a couple of months ago, so no chance of a takeover for at least maybe 12 months - the CEO has 3 years with his Golden Share from IPO

Rev B issues will all come out in the wash the next few weeks, my personal call is short term cash constraints and auditors agreeing on the value of the inventory, the one bit of data I can’t fathom is the RNS last week still refers to £18M full year EBITA and £200M plus revenue even though they lost £money H1? Am guessing the H1 loss is down to the USA acquisition back in Feb this year and they enjoy the full benefit of the gross margin increase from medichem ltd in H2 ?

Pure speculation but the inventory /chemical materials could be worth what the m/cap is, kind of has to be at £50M on £200M Rev 70% of which is to global retailers who don’t carry stock generally, could be less and I could be wrong but soon find out - includes overseas stock as £110M ROW

Guess we can judge how successful Jupiter have been last 5 years

No wonder they have problems

https://twitter.com/bargain83399253/status/1556920084613963776?s=10&t=59PoJQVrTqfSbfnWEe9qkQ

Rony is correct on one point re Jupiter
They valued Klarna at $47B took the fees off their clients
£60M

Then Klarna got revalued at $6B

No wonder they are having a run of redemptions

Jupiter are having a run on them like Woodward Funds