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MM’s are holding this on buy orders
Looks like 2 buys to 1 sale

Clear out the PI’s who made a few quid buying in at 8p last week and we get into the 20’s

30p looks like the short term price - NAV level around £100M
should get close to that this week
Which at 30p is still around 50% below 15 days ago

IF we go above 30p then good chance they are in talks with an interested party, it’s just what the directors want at that point and what’s in it for them?

So 30p my call where this parks before results

… they have enough cash

The market insiders would have kept this at 8p otherwise

Into the 20’s today and a run up to 30p this week which is still 50% down on 2 weeks ago

IF a takeover is being discussed we could see over the 30p

THG via Ingenuity manage Rev B’s logistics, has to be a perfect fit for THG 70% of Rev B’s £200M sales are to global retailers that’s a whole new market for THG

Think so Sham, to be expected

The market knew Jupiter had to liquidate, the II’s / whale waited til capitulation (8p) they maybe helped with a few shorts earlier last week as well , just enough to add to the misery for Jupiter

MM’s hoovering now them up for their big clients as move back up

£50M was a silly m/cap for a business with £100M net assets and £200M sales, all thanks to Jupiter

May be wrong but MM’s trying to accumulate stock for Ii
whale clients now that Jupiter are out - TR1 sometime today?

None of the other II investors in Rev B sold a notifiable amount so the MM’s need to squeeze PI’s into selling the cheap shares they bought last week by default off Jupiter

Once we the PI’s who sell early doors gone then we move up to into the 20’s

Hi JTO, fair comments.

Tbh I am new to Rev B ,had been watching since the IPO and researching the brand /business for a while,then Jupiter selling down presented the opportunity, without them off loading there wouldn’t have been the liquidity.

With BDO having carried out the original IPO DD last year ,the Co paying off its debt at IPO and even today standing on ‘just’ £21M of total debt today on £200M of Rev … and a net balance sheet so with around £100M then Rev B is not going bust , it’s either takeover or they trade through.

I am hoping I’ve got my research correct.

# would have

Hi JTO
Hope you made a profit on the trade - genuinely (that’s what we are all here for )

Think if it was as you say you are talking fraud by BDO at worst or misrepresentation at best, there is no way she could hide BDO’s actions and then appoint ( recommend ) one of the big 4 to come in,not sure if you have been involved with an audit but she would have had to sign off the BDO accounts as being fair and factual and then say she had concerns, not going to happen, this wouldn’t happened back in June if it wasn’t going to occur.

Same with the RNS last week reiterating the cash is fine, her name is on that one as well, as FD that was on all her not the CEO/ COO
Important point this one.

Being a plc director of a public company - and a new one at that - she has no incentive to cover a fraud and become exposed herself and then become a whistleblower doesn’t make sense

Suggest it’s a mixture of the comments below otherwise she would have ditched as soon as she saw anything onerous that wasn’t fixable

Let’s see how it goes this week but think we head into the 20’s and take it from there, am riding this one but agree there are risks but my average is 14p and I could see a double bagger here -,on a big relative position

Interesting thesis Canary

I’ve been wondering where could the issues be ?

I was wondering is it in part around the loss of the Ukraine /Russia revenue? This could be £15M to £18M of sales
The BoD needed to plug the gap and redirect the stock pile where did that go and at what terms ?

Then we had a £3M acquisition of the LA Beauty Co that was in Chapter 11 - that’s a whole sub sector skill base bedding in a business that’s been basically trading through Administration

Then we have sometime Q3/Q4 last year the BoD made the call to stock a years worth of chemicals

Anyone one of those issues is challenging on their own but if the FD was deemed inexperienced / or just not good enough to be in the seat post IPO with £220M of global sales to manage was he functioning when these calls were made ?

My gut is feel is no … the data points that way.

Ok so since he has gone the new FD has been grappling with the above, she didn’t Jack so she thinks it’s fixable, if wasn’t she would have jumped within a month or so.

My take is, she is getting to grips, sorting everything out with the auditors, we will see a hit to last years EBITA, the BoD will say it’s water under the bridge but these are the reasons why and the new FD has done a great job and we will do £18M EBITA and don’t forget we did £12M EBITA last year H2 the issues were all H1 etc .. and the market moves on .

In the mean time - because the market prices in real time - the share price is down 90% the bad news is already priced in, however the ‘smart’ money is looking at the share price and working through the above, it started at 8p last week -with Jupiter out - and is now moving in to take a position which starts with the MM’s buying up stock to sell on to whales / II who have verbally advised they want stock

IF the MM’s mark down first tomorrow -I think they will with the 17.2p UT - , they gobble up weak hands stock then we move to 18p as the accumulation continues.

£100M net assets / £200M of sales , £110M of which are outside the U.K. and £18M EBITA H2 ,then £50M current m/cap is a total steal

Soon find out on 24hrs

With a £100M minimum net balance sheet plus £40M revolving credit line and £200M of sales it’s as Urraca says, it’s all about negotiating with the auditors

Let’s not forget it’s a new FD who will want to sink as much as possible, ditto rest of BoD, get it out the way, it’s just what’s the write down ? - none cash as they say

Good shout that Red

Liked this paragraph

‘We’ve changed the game when it comes to leveraging social media and influencers and are now one of the top three consumer brands on TikTok and the biggest beauty brand in Europe across social media. It’s important to me that we never use any filters or retouch images on social media – what you see is what you get. We’ve also challenged the industry when it comes to innovation and products. We can take a trend and create a new product within 16 weeks, when you compare this to other competitors who take 18 months to get something from start to finish’

30% of sales are online so not effected really

70% to retailers under contract, usually only terminated on their side on administration , that’s not happening with £100M to £80M NAV
Worth noting the Trust Pilot reviews are holding up well and the product is out in the stores , stock is not an issue they probably have too much stock and need to turn into cash

It is a punt from here , was at 8p, think you pays your money take your chances, if the Bod hit the timetable and no nasties that are material and the £18M EBITA reiterated then we should be back to where we were 2 weeks circa 60p

The longer we don’t hear on a further delay the better, their advisors will be driving this now - RNS’s wise

I am in quite heavy at around 14p average now, along for the ride, hoping my research is correct

Market makers

JTO, valid points and good debate

If we did get suspended pending audit then a takeover would may the only option for the BoD from a fiduciary point of view?

Few thoughts

It’s to be expected that Tom will take a rain check on his £4M for 12 months , it’s in his interest.

BDO would have approved the last 2 RNS’s as well as the NOMAD/ Company lawyers, no idea why BDO let the first one go but it forced a correction, the last RNS a should have been the first RNS 2 weeks ago

The directors would have had the riot act off all 3 advisors on that last RNS - plus it had to be on the mark or the directors were on dodgy ground reiterating they didn’t need cash

The share price wouldn’t be 17p again if they were fund raising in the City and BDO wouldn’t have let that 2nd RNS go
re cash not required

IF the MM’s continue to accumulate Monday which is what was happening yesterday then the Directors are being truthful and there is no fund raise, we are then down to the value of the inventory and ‘ bad debt’ however that’s occurred - fully agree re the ex FD btw

Assume the BoD come out post results , gist ;

We don’t need cash , inventory £80M , £200M revenue and £18M EBITA second half and there was some accounting irregularities around bad debt which is now accounted for and the new FD has got a grip ….

Nb worth revisiting the last accounts , they had £12M 2nd half EBITA , looks like that’s when they make their money, based on the growth the £18M looks plausible

As I say can’t disagree with your points and this one is a bit of a gamble but looking at the business itself / web site hits / trust pilot /it’s marketplace , offering and price point it does have a chance of double bagger from here IF they get the results out

Btw I dived in / topped up at 8p plus on Thursday, that’s seems cheap now ,gut feel 25p may well feel cheap next week

Soon find out GLA

MM’s are picking up stock, they must have some big orders to fill

Maybe a markdown first thing Monday to scare weak hands but 18p once settles down after first hour is my shout
If the above comes off then we know MM’s are filling a book

JTO, your view is fair comment re risk / BoD credibility

Pretty much a binary Play here, results out end of month and the BoD have been truthful with no cash required and convince on the £18M EBITA on £200M plus the balance sheet confirmed then think it’s fair to say we could be back 55p/60p

Not sure what the downside is other than a takeover driven by fiduciary duties

Re Rev B product observation / thoughts on Inventory right down

Wife re purchased the bonded shampoo / conditioner last night
£10 purchased separately each or £16 for the dual
basic delivery £2.99

Olaplex (which is a brand leader ) is £28 x 2 so £56

Chemicals being chemicals one is branded the other not but effectively the same, feedback there is no marked difference between the 2 products.

Reading across Rev B prices on Superdrug against ELF they are very competitive ,delivery costs are passed to consumer, returns must be low with beauty products ?

Re inventory right down, maybe Rev B discounting 20% via 3rd party web sites to generate cash and the auditor is making the assumption the whole of stock needs to be written down ?
That brings inventory to £80M as an example- based estimated on numbers last time - throw in debtors ledger £26M
( 70% of Revenue via stores , 60 to 90 day terms but let’s say we use 60 days )

Add in Manufacturing Plant investment ( part owned )

Assets around £120M less £21m debt

NAV around £100M with possibly some upside to the £80M
inventory, current m/cap around £50M

Maybe the BoD are correct when advising in the RNS they have enough £cash and the price point / offer is so competitive they have the confidence £18M EBITA is achievable this year ?

£50M m/cap on £100M Nav today and £18M EBITA on £200M it’s not without risk of course and we take our chances but this has to be a steal at current share price ?

What a 14 days for Rev B shareholders

60p to 7.8p back to 17.2p

We should see 30p next week sometime and even we will still be 50% down from 2 weeks

18p open Monday

Just the start

Further TR1 due off Jupiter

If they were still in we wouldn’t be heading back to 20p

MM’s accumulating to fill clients orders, almost 40M shares traded today

30p looks inbound next week even then we are only touching NAV

…the £200M of Rev and £18M EBITA is on top

Market waking up and Jupiter gone