Member Info for Okehurst1

In effect saying

‘ we don’t want to spend £Billions buying you outright but we will if we have to, give us the deal we want ‘

Up for debate

Have Takeda been trying to push Avata BoD into a exclusivity deal reliant on the success of 6000

Avacta Bod rightly refuse

$44B Takeda buy £50k of Avacta shares - which is significant by the insignificant £value

They are trying to rattle Big Al & Co. sending a message ?
We can buy you out just to get 3996, give us the deal or be prepared ?

Takeda have it all to play for here, someone else nicks 3996 and their $44B business/ model looks suspect

Any views ?

…That’s gunna look cheap next few weeks

Another example of TW advice gone wrong … going Long in this instance

He’s been pumping SBTX for quite a while, even quoting it will hit £3 this summer back in January when it was 70p

Anyway it’s 20p a share today

He gets the odd one right but the gain is only a percentage of 100% - he mainly shorts - and his upside loss when it goes wrong can be very painful

Worth noting, his followers would be using synthetic shorts they ain’t II’s borrowing stock, those margin calls must be painful for anyone still in there

Suggest to many of us LTH’s we just want the big buy out and £1.20 or £2.80 - whilst nice - it’s just a number.

Big Pharma is on our tail ,we all know they are, it’s a question on when not IF

Btw How’s that’s short going Jupiter / TW crew ?

GMCC, Mr A

Good posts / debate , thanks for sharing info

Gunna miss this BB when we / Avacta gets bought out for $Billions

…. Share price was £1.70p

The business paid off all its debt and had £20M in the bank
and enjoyed a healthy balance sheet

Meantime

Share price 90% fall to 15p, business is close to doubling revenue, 55% outside U.K. Has its own manufacturing plant making it a vertical supply chain business,£21M of debt and possibly £100M net assets

Yes this will suspend but if you can stomach the cash locked in then we should see a decent gap up

Not without risk here but we are looking at a single bagger on reopening maybe a double on the numbers coming through, we are all here because 1% on cash doesn’t cut it

Onsolid, good debate

Based on experience I’ve found audit partners very twitchy the last few years, it’s their signiture/ head on the block
stuff
Fines and strike out if they get it wrong

This is why I think the problem is a change of audit partner for whatever reason and this has exasperated the delay

Agree BDO should have managed their resource but if there is a reinstatement - which it looks like there is - then that gets BDO off the hook

Justthisonce

We had a debate weekend before last when UT was 17p
I appreciate we are back there now but anyone out 8 days ago missed the 30p bounce and the chance to take some profits off the table / reduce risk, this is a risky investment but the upside is double bagger plus from here, we take our chances- am in for free after last week

Not sure on your logic re BOO funding a placing ?
Why would BOO get first dibs ? Plenty of other II’s on the register put aside the BoD say they are good for funding

Not sure we have legal recourse if there is a delay - from experience auditors are law to themselves nowadays as they/ the audit partner is personally exposed to litigation

Worth noting, it would be an audit partner that signs off RevB’s accounts, we could have had the same partner for a few years and they knew the business and they retired / fell ill
stuff happens as we know in life and a new partner has to get their heads around the accounts

Throw in 55% of revenue is now outside U.K.(£110M) and am guessing stock as well - that could be £60M pro rata

Take Australia where THG / Ingenuity handle their logistics, there must be stuff in their fulfilment centre etc
Multiply that by numerous retailers in shops in U.K. /USA
their stock items

What happened to the 9% of the business/ stock that made up Ukraine / Russia ? It may only be 3 months of stock / am guessing and it could be more or less but am just identifying the issue the auditors - if new on Rev B - would have had piecing stuff together

Then we have the bedding in of the USA e-commerce platform purchased out of chapter 11 in February and of course acquiring the £27M manufacturing plant last October.

When you look at this way you can understand it’s a lot to audit if the resource allocated was based on the model at the last set of accounts

As HH pointed out yesterday, plenty of room for price increases as Rev B products so cheap, personally I don’t think energy cost increase is material vs potential price increase and higher gross margin from owning a vertical supply chain

MEM has a fair point on energy / Labour / but Raw Material cost increases is not a problem with over 12 months stock in hand, ditto supply customer chain

Worth a look at page 8 of last years accounts, it lists Energy use

For Ref Electric made up 20% of their energy costs
80% balance Gas

1,100,000 KWh x 0.25 = £275k…same usage In todays market for a year out of October 22 would be around £770k using a 70p figure today

Gas has gone up 10X since their last accounts year, I am working on the £number increase at the moment

My only caveat is I can’t calculate the true energy costs of the manufacturing plant as they are in for maybe 4 months of the year

As I say page 8 on the accounts filed at companies house

MEM, we discussed this one yesterday
Plenty of scope for price increases

Just on your point of raw materials increases

We have £120M of stock - probably one of the issues of the audit

Is that worth more or less today than it was inJanuary ?

Chemicals have a long shelf life

55% Revenue outside U.K.
potentially 60% plus gross margin
Room for price increases
Manufacturing plant
70% sales to retailers
30% sales on line

Yours for £57M m/cap today

No wonder BOO loading up ,they are looking past the suspension for results

The market did the calculation very quickly on Friday

BoD on the ropes, BOO will add more then sit tight until the results out, 30p minimum on open post results moving to 55p

Or

BOO full Bid

Win win for us PI’s

MM’s accumulating for someone

Agree HH, if the unit saie price is lower the margin uplift is magnified.

Potentially big £numbers when aggregated

No wonder BOO want a piece of the action

Is a good point

Know this a raw number but assume a figure of £10 for every item Rev B sell - picking a number which kind of looks a decent average

Rev B do appear to have ridiculously low prices

So on £200M that’s 20M items a year

Just adding £2.50 on average brings in an extra £50M a year profit

The sold out face creams £5 … small items £1 here £2 there

Feels like it’s doable from a helicopter view of the business model

Rocket
I don’t think BOO can officially BId before the results - technically they could but there will be no market for the shares other than private treaty

The BoD would refuse the Bid and I don’t think the BOO BoD could put in an offer that satisfies their investors and Rev B’s without audited accounts ? Everyone flying blind

BOO could increase their stake this week as do the USA hedge fund, wait for the market to reopen post results then BOO make their move, the USA boys will sell to the highest bidder whoever that may be, the market , BOO or another

Suggest the market calculated this very quickly on Friday hence the share price didn’t retouch 8p

The MM’s will move this all over the place the next week till suspension to whatever big orders they receive

Sit tight and IF we do get a flash drop of significance then move in, makes sense to me

Not selling a bean of residual stake - 14p average

Taking the view this stock will suspend but open higher and head to NAV, 30p possibly towards its price 3 weeks ago of 55p/60p and I won’t be able to re enter at current price plus I have no idea where it will close before suspension

IF BOO don’t accumulate more this week then they will buy post results - suspect if the price drops this week they may be tempted

Our new USA hedge fund may take advantage of a lower price this week as well.

Then there is us PI’s ,many who made a few quid last week, there will be a price we move in to accumulate.

It’s a punt to sell and try and get back in cheaper, the market may look past the suspension IF BOO/ VC’s and others take advantage

Sit on hands, cash ready IF we do see a relative fall is my take next week