Member Info for Okehurst1

No one could argue in support of the THG BoD and the share price down 90% ish from peak
Plus the lack of transparency with the numbers / capex around ingenuity, throw in the golden share uncertainty and then turning down a buy out at £1.70 - if that ever really existed ?

Put all that to one side - as hard as it is to discount - at 50p ish THG is a decent punt for a recovery play, even back to 85p when the Chairman bought £1M plus

The market has looked past August / ‘energy bills’
they have now ‘disappeared ‘ - ASOS

Good points, suggest what will change is the sentiment of the public after yesterdays £150B giveaway

The public would have started saving/ cutting back in August in anticipation of doubling of their Energy bills in October , it’s happy days now for domestic users and business, this £150B giveaway is bigger than furlough for the British public

This explains why the bottom for THG will have been earlier this week

‘The £2,500 cap implies the average households’ monthly bill will rise to £208 in October, from £164. On top, everyone gets a £400 grant, paid out over 6m (£67pm). So effectively, the average bill will *fall* to £142pm for the Oct-Mar period. Recession looking far less likely’

Whey down
THG energy costs capped in U.K.

The £150B ‘ QE’ yesterday was the gamechanger, the EU going down same route … more printing from the money tree

THG update on capex - this is also key, we need to see the promised reduction when we get the update next week.

With £150B of new ‘ QE’ and every family in the U.K. enjoying helicopter £money for the next 2 years, EU doing the same, it’s the best macro news for THG for quite some time.

As SP/ others have mentioned we just need transparency off the BoD next week alongside points below and we could see a decent rerate from these levels, even if we head back to the price our chairman paid recently (85p)

Reckon we have hit the bottom after todays news

Been doing the same …

The £150B to cap energy bills is just QE but in a different name

THG will be a beneficiary of this money printing, we all end up with a few Bob extra come October as our energy bills won’t be going up if we build in the £400 rebate on top - from where we thought we would be last week

Whey prices down
News on Golden share - MM has 12 months ticket that’s it
Capex under control
News on THG being cash positive - time line confirmed

THG is looking very cheap at this level

Didn’t the UT trade get reversed after the close at 5pm ?

In effect it was a trade at market size that had been inputted by mistake and then reversed ?

We have had some consistently strange and unexplainable UT closes over the last few months but this one looks pretty clear ?

Made me smile :)

https://twitter.com/ophidian18/status/1566684716849397761?s=10&t=LpTGKHRwWDaQMO0K5jnKwg

2nd that Thompi

Well laid out thesis off RAH - always backed up by data, it’s v appreciated by all of us on this BB
RAH also caveats there may be a delay IF we have just started the process

Either way, we can expect confirmation of either route via an RNS on Monday, imagine if we skip phase 1 and we go straight to ‘ Go’ phase 2/3 ?

I am in RAH’s camp re the funding

Publicly quoted companies don’t wait last minute until they raise £capital, CFO / Audit Committee would have been pushing the balance of the BoD by now.

The BoD have their agreed game plan

Suggest if the volume would have been high today then we could have surmised the BoD we’re doing the rounds for a fund raise - the II’s know this stuff weeks in advance of us little PI’s, I have learnt this the hard way on AIM over the years, no fund raise here.

My call, we wake up with a 3996 license deal RNS, could be any day over the next 8 weeks, for LTH’s it’s business as usual, we sit and wait.

TW our favourite pantomime villain who continues to recommend shorting Avacta , one of his other tips going long on SBTX has bombed after its recent RNS
He had it down as £3 a share by now - 17p today

Been here for 2.5 years …I feel more positive as the weeks roll by, todays RNS was excellent news, scary times for anyone with a synthetic short, just a question of how much you lose now covering margin calls

Good post gmcc

Unless we are missing something then the £50k investment by $40B Tekeda into Avacta - as a sole investment, they don’t do portfolio’s - then it has to be intent / message ,for whatever reason to get the attention of the Avacta BoD

We had sustained buying last week or so as the share price jumped 25% from £1.12 to £1.40.

Don’t think we would be overly surprised if Takeda went to 2.99% or above, somebody, somewhere is buying to give us that 25% hike, it’s been consistent

None of us LTH’s would sell knowing we are on the brink of something special , ditto the Whales / II’s who hold Avacta, whoever is accumulating is going to have to keep moving the Bid price up the next few weeks to get sellers but no idea why anyone would sell at this point in the journey

Going to be an interesting few weeks / month or so

Getting cosy

https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1563978641880530944?s=10&t=qDhc-VgZRiRlPNiNF9BXkA

They bought them in the quarter ending July 2022
This was 2007

It was discussed did Takeda take an equity stake in Avacta as part of a wider VC style investment portfolio - in effect normal course of business / part of their strategy to acquire small percentage of equity in up an coming biotech companies?

Suggest that argument is dead in the water …. There is only
one equity stake they have on their books and it’s Avacta
Nb forget the other company they own that outright

There is no way a $40B plus business goes out and buys £50k of shares in a quoted stock in the open market - put aside the paltry relative amount - and then displays it for the world / Avacta BoD to see, personally I think there has been a discussion, Tekeda couldn’t get exclusivity on the price they wanted and they sent a warning shot to big Al.

Why ?Maybe this is how Tekeda conduct business? Who knows but suspect these guys are looking at the Avacta portfolio / waiting for the Ava6000 data before making their next move

Thanks once again to RAH

https://twitter.com/rah00084/status/1563436006459981826?s=10&t=n4o0Wp1cIOR0mu1VnAvziA

I agree with Wiggly’s gist assessment.

For whatever reason why it’s been disclosed a $40B Pharma Co has bought shares in Avacta, we can say it’s positive news this week.

Have they been picking up more shares recently? Who knows? A TR1 if they went over the 3% would make for interesting times.

Other than attending the AGM next year - £1.40 today buys you access to that - there is no benefit, it’s the same public information a non shareholder can access.

40,000 ish shares would have been easy to hide, not sure why disclose a paltry relevant amount, feel there has to be bigger commercial reason than a punt of £50k on the shares for a $44B company - and of course the connection to 3996

Big Pharma competitor nicks 3996, they have the deep pockets to exploit

Spending £50k on Avacta shares is a nothing in £cash to £44B Takeda, why bother ? Why make that move now?

Does kind of indicate stuff / conversations going on behind the scenes