Member Info for obstando

What everyone seems to have overlooked is that Willow are supplying CBG which is quite different from CBD.
This is a real differentiator and it will be interesting to see the company marketing and whether the intention is to supply it in addition to CBD or whether all products will be CBG going forward.

There aren't too many competitors currently supplying CBG products

I think it's worth clarifying the importance of the link I posted to Laefyquick yesterday.

It wasn't about the reviews or the size of packs that the company are selling online across the US.

It was a demonstration that not only are the smokes and chews available in an ever-increasing amount of c-stores, specialist smoking stores and Chill website but they are also being sold through websites not previously mentioned.

Rather than pick up on that fact that this opens up more sales opportunities some people are scratching around looking at why reviews are out of date and suspicion about the size of packs being sold.

If I was cautious about being invested (I'm not) and these issues really were of concern to me guess what I would do? I would pick up the phone and call Leafyquick and ask a few questions.

Maybe someone did that but didn't want to report back that the products were really popular and selling well. Maybe they didn't want to say that the company haven't updated their website in a while. Maybe they didn't want to say they've been receiving rave reviews. Best to try and sow seeds of doubt and hide the positives to be taken from another outlet selling the products.

The chuckle brother(s) are starting to get rattled

For those that can't see the wood for the trees (from the 17/05 RNS):-

"Following receipt of the orders outlined above, the Group is trading profitably."

Every day that passes the roll-out continues and the products are in more and more stores and sales are ticking up.

Add online sales into the pot and as was stated before we are definitely in "prepare for take-off" mode

Expect to see a steady rise from here and as restrictions are being lifted around the country Gerry Cottle probably wants his Chuckle Brothers back on the road

Toblerone - and available online in more outlets....

https://leafyquick.com/products/chill-cbd-smokes-960-mg-1-carton-8-packs

@Helpful - I am with you.
The board has deteriorated with post after post about a company that has no relevance here and self-indulgent private conversations.
Nobody is trying to be the board police but there are boards for every company and I cannot understand why some feel the need to drown out sensible conversation about HE1 with irrelevant dross.
I remember when I first invested here in January and the board was probably the best on LSE and it would be nice to see it back that way.
I hope those that have ruined the board today will move on and focus on HE1 tomorrow and take their private conversations elsewhere

Weathergeek

I did some simple calculations using very conservative numbers and it makes for great reading :-

Based on the following assumptions:-

1) 2 packs sold per store per day (very conservative)
2) $2 per pack profit (conservative)
3) Exchange rate of £/$ 0.70
4) Roll-out programme in accordance with company schedule (2021 - 10k stores, 2022 - 30k stores, 2023 - 60k stores, 2024 - 100k stores)
5) US smoke sales only so EXCLUDING all other sales

Calculation is based on:-

Number of stores x 2packs per day per store x $2 profit per pack x 365 days x 0.7 conversion rate ÷ 212M shares

The SP calculations below are in Sterling and based on a P/E of 20/40/60 (could be even higher in this market). If you feel that the P/E is likely to be something else it is very easy to re-calculate

SP at end of 2021: 96p/192p/289p
SP at end of 2022: 192p/384p/576p
SP at end of 2023: 384p/768p/1156p
SP at end of 2024: 960p/1920p/2890p

Add in sales of US chews, smokes and chews from other countries and Zoetic products worldwide and these numbers will grow

These are conservative figures and posted as an alternative viewpoint to the figures posted here by others.
They are based on the roll-out programme suggested by the company.

We are going to need a bigger boat!

I don't believe either of the chuckle brothers actually hold shares.
All they are doing is stating they are because when the price gets back to the £1+ level and higher they will say what smart investors they are and then disappear.
If the SP failed they would be sure to tell everyone that they told them so.
They are purely here to cause disruption and have no skin in the game - they just get paid by the tooth fairy for the number of posts made.
All they have done is make sure they are covered in any eventuality so they can say they were right.
Take everything they say with a huge pinch of salt and continue to not engage with either name (although as they always appear together and disappear together it's patently clear they are the same person talking to themselves).

If you look for the last company interview with David Minchin you will find all the answers you need. Better to hear it from the horse's mouth and feel some satisfaction from doing some research of your own

Ezhik - I assume on the basis of your lengthy post that exploration companies aren't for you.

The stock markets are littered with failed exploration companies but there are a few that make it. Those that do succeed provide those that invest early with the best returns. Risk and reward. If you bet on red often enough it will eventually come up.
I believe that the potential here is well worth the risk but understand why others wouldn't.
As I have stated before (and mentioned by someone else this evening) this is basically a binary play.
I'm happy with those odds here

That's interesting - nearly 40% of menthol smokers say they will quit smoking when the ban is introduced.
These smokers will need help quitting - I wonder if there's a product out there that gives them that menthol flavour and the smoking sensation without the nicotine?

You have your answer then so there really is no need to ask for any further comment or input.
If you believe an SP of 32p is fair value sell up and wait to buy back in at that point.
Over and out.

Why is it that some people ask the same question again and again despite bing given an answer?

It's behaviour one may expect from spoilt brat that is over-tired and hungry and no doubt they will keep asking until they get an answer that they want to hear.

Let's have a bit of fun and assume that each of the sales outlets sells 10 packs per day and do that calculation:-

(all assumptions as before and based on P/E of 20/40/60)

SP at end of 2021: 480p/960p/1445p
SP at end of 2022: 960p/1920p/2880p
SP at end of 2023: 1920p/3840p/5780p
SP at end of 2024: 4800p/9600p/14450p

seb - my post was a demonstration that even with the extremely low sales numbers other people have been quoting the SP projections look phenomenal. Of course no store is going to stock a smoking product that only sells 2 items per day - In the dedicated smoke stores they will be selling multiple cartons per day.
It was put out there so that people could do their own calculations - if you feel the average sales per store will be 10 packs then multiply the projected SP by 5.

As said we are going to need a bigger boat

Talk of fair price is meaningless as there is no such thing as a fair price - the market dictates the SP and what anyone thinks is fair or unfair does not change the reality of the SP at any given time.

Investing by it's nature is not so much about the now but about what may be so if you are fixated on today then investing may not be for you.

The fair SP today is 50p because that is what it is. 60p may be unfair and 40p may be unfair but the simple fact is the SP is 50p.

Do I think the SP is below what I consider to be a sensible valuation of the company today? Yes. Others may disagree.
Do I think the SP will rise over the next 6 months? Yes absolutely. Others may disagree.
Do I care what others think? No

I have done my research, I have spoken to the CEOs on a number of occasions, I have watched the likes of John Story put his money where his mouth is and I am comfortable that company is in the best possible hands, has a very focussed objective over the coming years and is delivering everything it has promised. I am invested for what is coming.

For those that haven't done their own research and feel the need to keep asking the board for some sort of reassurance and need other people to hold their hands then I'm sorry but sometimes you have to man up and make the hard decisions.
The information is all there and and the dots are clear if you care to join them up so you can decide what is fair or not for you and make your own decisions.

It may hurt your ego but no-one really cares if you are invested or not or have trouble sleeping at night.

Fati sumus domini nostrorum

For those that seem to be blinkered to how the SP may move with the increased store roll-out:-

Based on the following assumptions:-

1) 2 packs sold per store per day (very conservative)
2) $2 per pack profit (conservative)
3) Exchange rate of £/$ 0.70
4) Roll-out programme in accordance with company schedule (2021 - 10k stores, 2022 - 30k stores, 2023 - 60k stores, 2024 - 100k stores)
5) US smoke sales only so EXCLUDING all other sales

Calculation is based on:-

Number of stores x 2packs per day per store x $2 profit per pack x 365 days x 0.7 conversion rate ÷ 212M shares

The SP calculations below are in Sterling and based on a P/E of 20/40/60 (could be even higher in this market). If you feel that the P/E is likely to be something else it is very easy to re-calculate

SP at end of 2021: 96p/192p/289p
SP at end of 2022: 192p/384p/576p
SP at end of 2023: 384p/768p/1156p
SP at end of 2024: 960p/1920p/2890p

Add in sales of US chews, smokes and chews from other countries and Zoetic products worldwide and these numbers will grow

These are conservative figures and posted as an alternative viewpoint to the figures posted here by others.
They are based on the roll-out programme suggested by the company.

We are going to need a bigger boat!

A lot of people on this board don't understand the enormity of tobacco cessation and what effect it will have on a number of massive corporations.
The tobacco market is worth trillions of dollars and a number of the major players have started to look at ways to preserve company value.
Inevitably this has led to them looking to take positions in the tobacco cessation market.
One of the majors paid a huge amount to take a stake in Juul only to watch the vaping regulations change and the vaping market change overnight. The value of Juul is now a fraction of what it was.
There is a strong probability that some of the major tobacco players were behind that drive to curb the vaping market.
Now there is a major threat from the CBD market - no tobacco content and no THC and a perfectly natural alternative to tobacco.
There was a conversation on here recently where some people were struggling to see how the CBD smokes could help with tobacco cessation and help people quit smoking. The smoking addiction is only partially nicotine craving (which has it's own market) but what was overlooked was that the majority of smokers who fail when trying to quit fail because of the physical act of smoking. Vaping was the first attempt to satiate the physical side but with the recent legislation worldwide (many major markets have now banned vaping completely) the door is wide open for a product that allows the smoker to continue with the physical act of smoking.
The potential for CBD smokes is enormous.
The major tobacco companies are well aware of this and will be fighting to position themselves in this brave new world to survive.
Now that vaping has effectively been taken away they are turning their attention to alternatives and the major alternative at the moment is CBD.
Our CEOs see the bigger picture, John Story sees the bigger picture and Eric Schrader sees the bigger picture.
Sadly a number of people on this board do not see the bigger picture.

As the board seems to have descended into a full-on bun-fight I thought I'd re-post my thoughts on how the roll-out may impact on the SP:-

Based on the following assumptions:-

1) 2 packs sold per store per day (very conservative)
2) $2 per pack profit (conservative)
3) Exchange rate of £/$ 0.70
4) Roll-out programme in accordance with company schedule (2021 - 10k stores, 2022 - 30k stores, 2023 - 60k stores, 2024 - 100k stores)
5) US smoke sales only so EXCLUDING all other sales

The SP calculation is in £ and based on P/E of 20/40/60 (could be even higher in this market)

Calculation is based on:-
Number of stores x 2packs per day per store x $2 profit per pack x 365 days x 0.7 conversion rate ÷ 212M shares

SP at end of 2021: 96p/192p/289p
SP at end of 2022: 192p/384p/576p
SP at end of 2023: 384p/768p/1156p
SP at end of 2024: 960p/1920p/2890p

Add in sales of US chews, smokes and chews from other countries and Zoetic products worldwide and these numbers will grow

These are conservative figures and posted as an alternative viewpoint to the figures posted here by others.
They are based on the roll-out programme suggested by the company.

Those that believe the company will continue to roll-out to 500 stores per month for the next 16 years to reach the 100k target have a very clear agenda.

Based on the following assumption:-

1) 2 packs sold per store per day (very conservative)
2) $2 per pack profit (conservative)
3) Exchange rate of £/$ 0.70
4) Roll-out programme in accordance with company schedule (2021 - 10k stores, 2022 - 30k stores, 2023 - 60k stores, 2024 - 100k stores)
5) US smoke sales only so EXCLUDING all other sales

The SP calculation is in £ and based on P/E of 20/40/60 (could be even higher in this market)

Calculation is baed on:-
Number of stores x 2packs per day per store x $2 profit per pack x 365 days x 0.7 conversion rate ÷ 212M shares

2021: 96p/192p/289p
2022: 192p/384p/576p
2023: 384p/768p/1156p
2024: 960p/1920p/2890p

Add in sales of US chews, smokes and chews from other countries and Zoetic products worldwide and these numbers will grow

These are conservative figures and posted as an alternative viewpoint to the figures posted here by others.
They are based on the roll-out programme suggested by the company.

Those that believe the company will continue to roll-out to 500 stores per month for the next 16 years to reach the 100k target have a very clear agenda.

Why is it that some people ask for critique on their figures and then squeal like a baby when you correct them and claim they are being bullied?

don't trust wikipedia! I was unfortunate enough to study latin and have given you the translation