Sales projections1 Jul 2021 11:59
As of yesterday the company should have hit approx.3500 outlets and from today's RNS there is nothing to suggest targets have not been met. In fact the comment that the company is receiving "high value repeat orders" and not just repeat orders suggests that sales are going well and to me high value repeat orders suggests that stores would be selling more than the 2 packs per store per day figure that has been regularly used in calculations.
Let's assume that many stores could be selling 10+ packs but to keep it realistic maybe we should work on 5 packs per store per day as an overall average:-
Based on the following assumptions then:-
1) 5 packs sold per store per day
2) $2 per pack profit (conservative)
3) Exchange rate of £/$ 0.70
4) Roll-out programme in accordance with company schedule (2021 - 10k stores, 2022 - 30k stores, 2023 - 60k stores, 2024 - 100k stores)
5) US smoke sales only so EXCLUDING all other sales
Calculation is based on:-
Number of stores x 5 packs per day per store x $2 profit per pack x 365 days x 0.7 conversion rate ÷ 212M shares
The SP calculations below are in Sterling and based on a P/E of 20/40 (could be even higher in this market). If you feel that the P/E is likely to be something else it is very easy to re-calculate
SP at end of 2021: 240p/480p
SP at end of 2022: 480p/960p
SP at end of 2023: 960p/1920p
SP at end of 2024: 2400p/4800p
Please note that this projection is for smokes ONLY
Add in sales of US chews, smokes and chews from other countries and Zoetic products worldwide and these numbers will grow