Member Info for obstando

@Lucky - read my comments in this thread as I explained my reasoning quite clearly.

The ZOE sp valued the company over £200M a while ago yes

@R1bo - I fully understand this is a public BB and you will get all sorts of posts. I agree that it isn't as bad as many boards but I never claimed it to be the worst. If posters that claim £1 by year end want to back that up with some reasoning and calculation then at least there is credibility behind the claim and basis for discussion.

I actually consider the consistent comparison to ZOE to be a subtle form of ramping and have explained why. I also suggested that a more sensible comparison may be to Love Hemp because of the reasons detailed yesterday but have yet to see any comment about that. Interestingly Love Hemp put an RNS out today saying that they have signed an endorsement agreement with Anthony Joshua so with the talk of the sports angle here it definitely is a more realistic comparison.

Optimism is fine but I have a logical/analytical approach and until we are given details of branding, products, distribution, outlets etc I expect trading to be stuck in the rut it is currently in.

7p or just below should be the bottom but markets can be very fickle things. Interest has stalled here for a while and news will be required to re-stimulate it.

Amran - one man's negative is another man's realism

I have just posted a comparison to Love Hemp (which you will consider negative no doubt) and would love your thoughts on that rather than the constant comparison to a company that isn't really in the same market space. Realism please

Amran - I am well aware as I have been on this BB longer than you :)

The ramping doesn't influence my decision but it may give some an unrealistic expectation - what will influence my decisions is the product range, the distribution deals and the outlets.
Once the sales numbers are added in then we will all be in a position to make more informed decisions based on hard facts rather than guesswork.

Amran - I don't have an issue with anyone comparing CBX to any company - all I'm pointing out is that I see no reason for the comparison as you would be better off comparing like for like (which is why I suggested comparisons against Love Hemp). You seem to have ignored that suggestion completely.

There are many companies that have grown on hype and there are many better examples than ZOE (who I don't consider being a company that were ever really hyped - quite the opposite as their growth was very much under the radar and only picked up by investors new to the CBD market).

Again stating that ZOE went to 3.75p, whilst correct, is slightly misleading as the company was undergoing transformation from an exploration company to a CBD business.

I agree that ZOE is valued on their potential as every fledgling company is. Until CBX have products in the market the SP will trade within a limited range.

You obviously consider the board to be nicer when the silly ramps of £1+ by year end are posted but dislike the fact that I question why you would compare against a company in a fundamentally different market yet ignore the example I gave you which is in a very similar market and currently on sale in UK High Street stores.

I'm not giving any advice or SP predictions nor trying to save anyone but engaging in conversation instigated by what I consider an unrealistic comparison.

By comparing CBX to ZOE you are implying that the CBX share of the cosmetics market has the same potential value as the ZOE share of the tobacco cessation market - I disagree with and that.

@R1bo - I understand what is considered ramping is subjective but I wouldn't consider these examples tongue in cheek:-

"Truly Exciting Times Ahead , 10x Bagger by year end"

"This could easily hit a £1 but probably more importantly near term 50 - 60p on product launch and depending on how many products & DB behind CBX £1+++"

@last - the IPO was bought into amid much media and BB hype and as expected the SP reached a peak that was always going to happen - it actually went much higher than 17p despite that being shown as the high (I think it hit 27p). The high is not an indication of where the SP will trade upon product launch- it reflects the amount of buying that occurred in the first few days of trading.

The SP has stabilised around the 7p mark recently and will realistically trade around that level for a while maybe creeping up in anticipation of the next RNS which hopefully spells out the distribution and retail deals.
Then the marketing will kick in with product details and announcement of products hitting shelves.
Thereafter the market will be awaiting details of sales numbers.

Each of those events should lead to an upward movement but at what sort of level remains to be seen.

This is only the beginning of a long journey so patience is the key

R!bo - similarly there is no reason to state your holding as that also has an impact on how your posts are perceived. I have seen posters that start off by stating they aren't invested to then be ripped apart. I take whatever people say on BB's with a very large pinch of salt as we are all anonymous and everyone has their own agenda - some good and some not so good.
With regard to ramping there is actually some shocking ramping here - usually by a handful of regular posters.
The danger with ramping is that is raises expectations (usually unrealisticallY) that when not met leads to discord. Keep it real.
Happy to discuss figures and projection but they need to be substantiated - claims of 50p by September with nothing to back it up do not add much to the board other than desperation.
Everyone is waiting for news and that will shape the SP in the coming months - until that point it looks like the SP will continue to be traded within that band.

Amran - you are comparing apples to oranges and trying to exaggerate the value here because you are (supposedly) invested heavily and it's clearly in your own interest to ramp this as hard as you can. Let the facts speak for themselves.

CBX is valued as it is because it's at a very early stage and the market has yet to see it's products or confirmation of where it will be selling and when. Once those announcements are made the SP will re-rate. Once trading is established and sales numbers are announced then expect to see another re-rate but you need to walk before you can run.

Why are you not comparing to Love Hemp who are a much better fit?

When ZOE announce their numbers for the cosmetics side you will have more to compare against but trying to compare a company that is focussed on cosmetics and sports relief products against a company currently selling tobacco alternatives in the US seems pretty pointless to me. Yes they are both using CBD in their products but you don't compare Coca-Cola to Mr Kipling because they both contain sugar.

Amran - I think using ZOE as a benchmark for CBX is misleading as I have explained before.
ZOE's primary business is tobacco cessation (although they have an award winning line of CBD cosmetics, oils and edibles that have been selling online since last year and will be in High Street shops shortly). Once the sales figures for their cosmetics side of the business are published there may be some basis for comparison but the value of their business is primarily the smokes and chews which is a very different market and why their value is much higher (they are currently on sale in approx 3500 outlets in the US and have a deal to supply close to 100,000 outlets). A better comparison would be Love Hemp who are currently on sale in High Street shops and online and who also have a sports angle with their products (they are on Aquis but expected to shift to the main market after this year).

I think some people are overthinking things and need to take a break from the board
The post simply states they announced the commencement of the drill yesterday (which they did via RNS)
It does NOT say they commenced the drill yesterday
The drill started on Saturday as clearly stated in the RNS
There is co conflicting statement anywhere

As you were

It's clearly nappy-changing time as it looks like the slow twin is back and Chunk has left the room

I'm not confused at all - the post I quoted had nothing to do with Seb replying to you or anyone else. I even provided you the quote I was responding to.

The only confusion could be about which of you is actually the slower twin - I thought it was the other one but your failure to grasp a very straightforward reply suggests I may have got that wrong

Billy - clearly there is some confusion between the two of you as to who is the slower twin. It isn't all about you so give dumber some time in the spotlight.

Here's what your other half posted this morning and is what my reply was based on:-

"Well to be honest, I think $9.99 per pack of ten fags, is expensive. More like a premium smoke. I gave example the other day of Hemps product , nearly half price......but if Zoe are happy stacking them high, selling them low at $6 / $8 per Chill pack, then at 30 / 40 / 60 sales per day per outlet they will do very well."

I see no mention of pouches here but explicit reference to fags/smokes.

You seem to be a tad confused about what each other are posting - is it possible the slower twin is actually the smarter twin?

seb - no he specifically mentioned smokes and then suggested prices of $6/$8 per pack (discounted by the store and not by the company)

Persian - £1 would seem very cheap for a buy-out of a company with a $50BN resource so good luck to you .....I'm waiting for a bit more than that!!

It's interesting to see how the chuckle twin has gone from suggesting stores were only selling a pack or two per week to now talking about 30/40/60 packs per day with the comment that we will "do very well" - I think that's an understatement of epic proportions!

Let's work out some potential forecasts using 40 sales as suggested by the slower twin:-

Based on the following assumptions:-

1) 40 packs sold per store per day (as per chuckle twin suggestion)
2) $2 per pack profit (conservative)
3) Exchange rate of £/$ 0.70
4) Roll-out programme in accordance with company schedule (2021 - 10k stores, 2022 - 30k stores, 2023 - 60k stores, 2024 - 100k stores)
5) US smoke sales only so EXCLUDING all other sales

Calculation is based on:-

Number of stores x 40 packs per day per store x $2 profit per pack x 365 days x 0.7 conversion rate ÷ 212M shares

The SP calculations below are in Sterling and based on an extremely conservative P/E of 20 only. If you feel that the P/E is likely to be something else it is very easy to re-calculate

SP at end of 2021: 1920p
SP at end of 2022: 3840p
SP at end of 2023: 7680p
SP at end of 2024: 19200p

Add in sales of US chews, smokes and chews from other countries and Zoetic products worldwide and these numbers will grow

nuri - welcome to the board with your first post!

You sound like someone who is quite bitter - possibly because you feel you've missed the boat?

The only reason the company would be looking at "burning 100's of millions" is to install production facilities on site.

In order to be spending on production it would mean we have hit the volumes of Helium we hope for which would mean the current SP would be history. At £50M for a production facility to be up and running by the end of 2023 I would be very happy to absorb any dilution to get us to that position.

What you clearly don't realise is that funding for the production facility nay not be through dilution as with a resource of significance to the world market we will have a huge range of options.

It seems that the chuckle brother(s) haven't been out much today and are clogging the board again

You will notice that they have a tendency to try and engage in conversation by responding to individuals desperate to drag them in to conversation and ingratiate themselves as some sort of friendly and helpful figure. Please don't engage.

They claim to be holders but this is so that when the company is back trading over £1 they can say they made money. They aren't holding and clearly want the SP to drop.

Every day that goes by the products are reaching more and more sales outlets. Stores that already have stock are placing repeat orders so the growth is exponential. Don't forget we were trading at a profit last month so the numbers will be getting better and better.

The number of stores rolled-out to each month is increasing in line with or ahead of the company growth plans.

Those that believe it will take 16 years to roll-out to 88,000 stores obviously have no grasp of how a business grows.

The next financials and business updates are due soon and will demonstrate we are on the right path.

Do I believe our CEO's, JS and ES or the chuckle brothers?