Member Info for NormaStits

It’s just an ops update. This is how much we produced and this is what we’re up to. And the North Sea can be adverse in winter. What else did you expect?

Hickster, yes…but only if I think it likely I can knock it down and build something of higher value in its place, even if that takes me a while to unlock.

Well said Monmur. One never knows - this could be a fruitful ride, even for those that didn’t want to be on board…

Sorry Dick, I’m only leg pulling with Banbury following the intrigue that it caused last week.

Come on Banbury….Isn’t ‘gut wrenching’ a bit dramatic? I’m surprised you haven’t sold up and moved on given the impact this has had on you.

Looking forward to the future here. Wait until that locked box bursts open.

Could be £1.50 if our underlying commodity prices collapse or we have some operational disasters.

Ceteris paribus, we’ll be ok. Looking forward to what’s ahead.

Happily, the deal will proceed unless either party decides to scupper it.

Very well written. Do you see this as a good “hidden agenda” or not so?

Thanks Visitor. No, I based nothing on the locked box. Wasn’t a part of my decision. It’s standard M&A practice, nothing special. Well anware it’s not full of goodies. Also, quite a challenge to ‘confirm’ anything unless you are a party to the deal…

Think we just have to wait for the merged accounts to be produced to work out what did or didn’t happen. Accrued cash over 2022 ‘should’ not leave TW as a dividend or other leakage. I doubt one will ever be able to fully attribute these various items unless the notes accompanying merged accounts are unusually transparent.

Perhaps the 31.12.21 b/s cash, covered by the locked box, is approximately the same amount?

I agree it is protection in one sense, but also a handbrake on progress given the risk-free rate is lower than our ROC and that represents a massive opportunity cost.

*1st January 2022

All that renewables kit needs a shed load of petrochemical product…it’s a very lengthy transition.

Enough now. I told you I don’t have an answer to the question. An answer is not possible without the detail. I could make one up if you like. How about an NPV of £61.5 million ascribed only to the value of the locked box? There you go. It completely misses the point but you have an answer to your totally irrelevant question.

Well it feels quite lonely ;-) In all seriousness, if one takes the emotion out of investing, it leads to better decisions overall. Doesn’t mean one doesn’t care, nor get them all right. Focus on facts (ALL of them) and interpretation thereof, rather than feelings…

Now time to see how this plays out. Enough looking back. Driving the car by just looking in the rear view mirror ain’t good.

NewK. I have never claimed, and am not, an expert on this. I have not sought to put a £ value on it without knowing their financials through 2022 and the exact terms agreed between parties. The ‘21 accounts are somewhat relevant but looks like TW had a very busy year so who knows?

Key for me is that a huge dividend cannot be paid out from their 2022 financials, nor assets and liabilities assigned from/to TW pre-completion. These mechanisms are oft-used in M&A and have gained in popularity. I didn’t base my vote on the locked box so didn’t ascribe a specific value to it. It’s just an assurance of no ‘dark arts’. I voted based on the diversification play and the future potential of the combined entity. I maintain that the locked box was evident on publication of the circular. They are very common so SQZ did not need to ‘sell’ the deal on this basis and explicitly highlight it as a virtue.

I bought more SQZ on the dip last week. That tells you I value the future combo but I don’t have a price target. It is now just over 1% of my portfolio, so absorbs relatively little attention.

Plus some very ill-informed ones that latch on to things. I am not including you Banbury. Who had heard of ‘Jeremy Raper’ until about 2 weeks ago? Will you hear of him again? Oh, but he sells a subscription service…

Banbury - you’ve totally lost it on your suggestion about Tailwind’s 2022 profits. Holy hell, you’ve read and seen too much fiction.

Enough of this ridiculous conversation now. It has become a caricature of itself. My working week starts now and I am exiting this discussion to preserve both my sanity and my appreciation for other members of this forum.

No I don’t have such undeclared interest. SPA is a very detailed doc that is not (generally) released beyond the parties to the deal and held under strict NDAs. The one I signed was like that. That same company then IPOd. The public docs are very light on detail versus the confidential ones, although the former are often 10x longer, but full of waffle.

The financial impact of this deal will reveal itself in time. I am not in possession of any additional facts versus you all. My opinion is (and was always) different, that’s all. Neither of us is right nor wrong.