Member Info for NormaStits

That’s all fair Terry. I believe that every single investment has significant elements of faith and maybes. How can they not? If everything was a dead cert, it would be priced in. There would be no market to do price discovery as it wouldn’t need to happen.

One simply cannot predict what is unpredictable. We know what we know and we decide based on knowledge and opinion at that point in time. Tomorrow can bring surprises of its own.

Correct Dennis. They are not publicised nor freely touted, but they are there. One doesn’t give away the detail on such objectives, but they are definitely there. If you ask the right questions, you can gain price-insensitive information and choose which way you lean - for or against what management has in its plans and the assumptions that underlie that.

Terry, there is as much information out there as there is. Whether I know anything that others do not is irrelevant. It is the interpretation of that information and how you use it that creates the difference of opinion and informs the decision to buy, hold, sell or vote yes or no. That’s why you can (pretty much) always buy or sell any security…there is always another side taking a different view.

If you cast the net wide enough, there is plenty of information available to all of us on these assets and prospects. Successful investment over time is down to having an information advantage and an execution advantage.

I think a lot of posters on here do a tremendous job and form good judgments. There are some that become over emotional and hyperbolic about things they don’t know. That’s not a sound basis for good decisions.

Absolutely none of us know how each of our holdings will play out. We do our work, form a judgment and roll the dice. I am focused on seeking to generate good economic outcomes over time. Based on the above (information and interpretation), I believe this will deliver same. Could there be other options, better options? Probably. As of today, they are not evident.

Good luck to all.

It’s fine dick. Money is managed for institutional clients, so no private / individual investors. Relative return is their key priority, generating alpha over the long-term ERP.

The answer to your question is that I am sufficiently qualified, both in paper form and in years’ experience and performance record. Qualification is CFA. It’s only track record that really matters as qualifications are merely entry tickets. If we don’t perform, we don’t run money. You have to prove yourself as an analyst before becoming a stock-picker.

Time will tell which way this transaction works for investors. There are so many variables in play that will drive the outcome. It is differences of opinion and relative perceptions that drive trade and that’s exactly what we have here.

Banburyboy, thanks. Ditto to all others. I’m going in with the diversification play and the potential of the combined group longer term. Valuation, dilution etc are all fair points, but some expressions of that are hysterical and irrational. There is a lot of confirmatory bias on display. A lot of the potential in this deal is simply not in the public domain and you won’t discover it. I am trying to look through the noise to the value that can be unlocked on a 3-5 year view. I have no issue with a different opinion, but it has to be rational and informed.

As a portfolio manager, we are conditioned to do that over time and every trade is a blend of pros and cons. We go on the balance of probabilities as everything is marginal and (obviously) so much is unknown. Maybe I am wrong on this one. As a PM, an error rate of 45% means we outperform significantly over the long run…but we get a lot wrong.

I hold this PA not in my capacity as an II. I know PMs that hold this in their funds and the view I have is shared by them.

The bet with upomega is too boring to recount. But I will win it.

GLA.

I voted Yes. Only losing by 27-1…very reminiscent of my school football team.

Thank you Fool and Flex. Good recollections and very helpful.

Not seen any recent data yet upomega. It doesn’t get published very often. I will be transparent over the data. Given the timing of our bet, Q4 data is our first measure. Probably a couple more months til that data is out.

What was his conclusion?

Same day as the meeting.

The letter comes across as being penned by a petulant child. It seeks to be clever and provocative, and will not be taken seriously. The author has no real insight and is just ranting. Do people not realise that we know next to nothing about the Tailwind assets, especially the unrealised assets? Only insiders really know.

Tony - please sell your shares to me. Are you listening to the same call?

Holy hell. The quality of questions in this call is unbelievably low. Like a political hustings. Lots of sour-faced shareholders with folded arms, tutting and scowling at the screen. Hilarious.

There is only one class of share. No specific group of s/h can be shafted for another to gain. Just have to wait for whatever the circular reveals and allow rational analysis of the proposed transaction. I cannot fathom what special treatment an institutional investor might gain over any other except for access. However, price sensitive information cannot be given to one investor (in order for them to act upon that) versus any other investor.

…who are the shareholders of NSV Energy? Confirmation Statements will tell you.

Your story mimics mine…almost 100%. From owing shares in TOA (since around 1998) to what it is today. Like you, thought of selling many times and then just couldn’t be bothered. Happy to see them trying to expand the business and do a solid job. Cheers!

Based on what analysis or projections? Interested to learn what is behind your conviction forecast.

Thanks.

Indeed New Kid, choice of lawyer not the issue. Was just passing on. As I posited, no attempt to express an opinion on the deal itself, nor any aspects thereof. Staying away from that one on here.

Who knows? I just know that Ashurst is a quality outfit and, if they are advising on tax aspects, I believe SQZ will be getting good guidance.

Expressing no opinion on the deal here, but one would hope that Ashurst, as a top tier law firm, is on top of advising on the tax issues in this transaction. Whilst they do not have equity skin in the game, this is a high calibre firm that knows what it’s doing. I’ve seen them first hand in a number of transactions.