Member Info for NormaStits

Tradition has it that SQZ announces the date of publication of its annual report a week or two before publication date, which itself is sometime in the first half of Q2 of the calendar year. Why the moan? Nothing unusual here, especially following corporate activity. You’ll be moaning about the colour of Mitch’s socks soon enough and linking that to the share price ;-)

“…must be asking questions by now”. No they won’t. Relatively small positions in diversified portfolios that are overall falling in value. Doesn’t touch the sides in reality. May appear strange but that’s the way it is.

The only question to address right now is holdings (equity and debt) in non-top tier banks.

Likely in a close period, so cannot buy shares.

I do believe the penny will eventually drop for government, irrespective of party. Destroying North Sea energy economics is a huge act of long term self-harm. Short term they will play to the crowd to manage headlines, woo voters. Conservatives have done some of that. Labour, of course, claim they will do even more.

I don’t rule out the propensity for such self-harm, but a realisation that energy security and a transition to renewables are not readily possible without the natural resources on our doorstep is coming. There will be a sobering moment when that becomes clear. Their response to that is anybody’s guess. Whether it is a rational policy that ‘fairly’ incentivises private capital, nationalisation or a frenzied, headline-grabbing “shut it all down” well who the hell knows?

Retraction? “Jury is instructed to disregard the witness’s statement…”?

Nominal share value is USD0.1

No. Just the answer!!

Sorry NewK, what’s the gaff? I can’t see it for looking.

Tax losses and termination / amelioration of EPL (assuming that does happen) mean that cash generation is interesting.

Not sure what the new news is. The tax is a tragedy for post-tax earnings (well known) and cash generated is high (ditto). SQZ’s past is not its future given the change in mix from now on. Tax losses, new combined production rates, etc. Lots of new things to grasp and all yet to be seen?

NewK - hand on heart, haven’t run them. Think your take is decent, but hoping for surprise to upside. Perhaps not on CoH but FCF generation. Latter might not be clear for a while. Cash on b/s as at date x is less important to me than FCF prospects going fwd.

There’s nothing new, upomega, so unlikely to be thinking anything differently.

NewK,

Am sure a lot are selling. Don’t blame them if they don’t want to be part of this. Right thing to do.

I see flags of all different colours in every asset I own. Every single one has risk, the biggest risk for this one being commodity prices rather than Mercuria, imo. Position sizing reflects the risk that I attach to each holding, be that micro or macro risk, and the O&G holdings are very small % of the total. That is my investing style and informs each decision to buy, hold, sell, add, reduce. If this holding is a significant % of an investor’s assets, they should also allocate in line with their risk appetite/outlook.

Very simple approach, but works time and time again. Investing should be enjoyable not riddles with angst. If the latter, implication is that an investor’s portfolio is not balanced. Not every position works well all at the same time, but the overall does it’s job.

Just my approach.

Added more.

I am keen to add to I3E, Mommur. Waiting for the market to let me back in at 18/19. If it doesn’t, I’ll happily stick with what I have and collect the monthly coupon. In the meantime, feathering in to HY and EM debt whilst waiting for the yield curve to signal better times ahead. Getting closer…

Whenever you’re free to do it upomega. We need to ply you with the sauce to unlock your unguarded musings.

48p annual is the terminal point dividend point NewK. I did say 10%+…maybe a lot of +!

Ok, I’ll settle for 30p divi short term.

Is announcing that level of divi the catalyst for a meet up? Who else is in? Ivy Asia fine…or Paradise Green on Bishopsgate (one of my private investments…).

Sorry, didn’t answer the final bit. Very happy to meet up with folks from here at whatever is deemed the right time. Perhaps a future, in-person AGM when we approve the latest 30p per share final dividend, making a total of 48p for the year? ;-)

I am based in City, within sight of the dome of St Paul’s.

NewK - I genuinely don’t have a day 1 forecast or prediction. I just don’t go there.

My belief/hope is that, over a reasonable timeframe (0 to 3 years), SQZ is on a strong growth trajectory that delivers good returns to ALL shareholders. That’s a combination of divi and price appreciation. If we got 10%+ TSR per annum, fine by me. There will be internal and external factors that throw this around.

I happen to think we’re heading in the right direction with the combination and new ‘influences’ around the boardroom table.

SQZ is way down my list of holdings, but has a special place as it has been held for a long time and delivered a huge return to me. It is <1% of Norma’s balance sheet and attention paid to it is proportionate. Hence I don’t do all the work and extrapolation that others on here do. I appreciate what they do, even if I disagree with their opinion. As I have said many times, it is these differences that create trade. I3E is my other main energy play. I like both in themselves, but they are also my personal energy cost hedges so play a dual role.

NewK - Exploring, yes, but the rush to judge and condemn on here is widespread. I believe you are a very informed investor. I just don’t want you to be miserable about this or any investment in which your capital is deployed, and to retain optimism!