1Q 2022 GMO QUARTERLY LETTER19 May 2022 20:06
You need to register to read the full article [free] but the effort is worth it...
https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/1q-2022-gmo-quarterly-letter/
'IntroductionSoaring commodity prices have helped drive inflation to 8.5%, by far the highest level in the last few decades. With commodity prices up and inflation creating waves, is it too late for investors to capitalize on high commodity prices? Have investors missed their chance to protect their portfolios from inflation? Historically, resource equities have provided stellar performance during inflationary periods, 1 and this time has been no different. Resource equities have been the best performing asset class over the last 2 years yet continue to trade at extremely attractive levels that don’t reflect current commodity prices. Let’s consider some of the important dynamics in commodity markets and then turn to the surprisingly attractive opportunities in the resources sector.Shorter-term and longer-term dynamics in commodity marketsCommodity prices are generally driven by short-term supply/demand dynamics. Currently, there are a few major factors impacting short-term supply and demand. On the demand side, we have a global economy, boosted by an abundance of stimulus, striving to return to “normal” after two miserable years dealing with Covid. Commodity producers have struggled to meet this demand, as they’ve dealt with an assortment of pandemic-related challenges, including supply disruptions and labor shortages. Into this already potent mix, the Russia/Ukraine crisis has been added.Russia is one of the largest commodity producers in the world with critical supplies across energy, metals, and agriculture. Russia produces more than 12% of the world’s oil and is the world’s largest natural gas exporter, including, as we all know, being a major supplier to Europe. The Black Earth region spanning Russia and Ukraine is home to large swaths of extremely fertile soil, producing almost 30% of the world’s wheat and ranking as one of the top two or three producers of many agricultural commodities. On the mining front, Russia is a major producer of nickel, platinum group metals, potash, phosphate, and coal, along with many other materials. With Russia involved in a shooting war with Ukraine and an economic war with the West, already stressed commodity markets have become more stressed. Oil has traded over $120 per barrel, while nickel, phosphate, and wheat all jumped over 30% in the days following the invasion.These shorter-term factors obscure, in some ways, and exacerbate, in others, critical underlying longer-term dynamics that will impact commodity prices for many years to come. On the demand front, we have a global population rapidly approaching eight billion and headed significantly higher from there. More importantly, a large proportion of the global population resides in developing countries that will continue to go through the stage of economic development...
It is a long artic