Member Info for NicetoMichu

Holy Cow on that tr1 .. he's dumped at least 14%.. and 'off market' very thankfully .. so must be a block buy by another II or II's .. the buyer/s will announce their purchase soon no doubt .. unless it's a bunch of buyers and none over 3%.. unlikely though ... very interesting to see who... CMS(HK) and A&B(HK) - aka the Chinese - are considered concert parties and hold 25 per cent each and so I'm guessing they'd not be able to take on that much more shares as even if split it would result in over 30% each … but, off the top of my head, I don't know the details on what level holdings in this specific situation would require an outright bid by them for the co.. help please?

Maybe Ora Capital, as the next largest holder, has decided to increase massively from 4% ...or maybe some one/ more than one new.. soon find out...

Generally, Woodford getting out amazingly quickly and without any s/p impact seems very -very - good news indeed (unless it has other bad knock on consequences.. or could be good either.. or no consequence at all.. etc)

this seems to have been a very tricky one for gengs charts to call, in fairness.. his chart was saying wasn't going under 1p a while back.. no doubt he's a good chartist imho but charts are far from right al the time.. but can be useful tools as part of a wide tool kit, I expect .. I followed him on II and he has called a few well previously off charts btw, and I'm thankful for that and think he's always worth a listen.. but this has not been one of his more auspicious names imho.. SO FAR, at least

I see that other names that Woodford holds - eg 4d pharma and Allied Minds - have come well off today too.. I hope people distinguish what names are in what funds and this ends up helping mtph bounce back soon..

ps I posted this because I guess this mornings s/p down movement - the s/p was already down approx. 9% on the day before I posted this - might in some way be related to todays announcement on Woodfords flagship fund. I guess my post should allay fears somewhat, and note that It's only my best understandings from some quick research . Happy to stand corrected on any or all of my post.. or have more colour added by others... etc..

I think - but am a fair ways from certain - that his Mtph holdings are in the Woodford Patient Capital Fund as opposed to the today announced soon to be closed Woodford Equity Income Fund (ie starting to sell out in Jan 2020) I've seen an old listing of the Equity Income names and this is not on the list , also this is not a dividend paying type co now or in the near future. And Patient Capital Fund has a key focus on early stage healthcare and technology. And there are stocks like mtph in an old list of the top ten holdings - this is best detail I can find on a quick search - of the Patient cap fund..

I think Woodford has four Funds altogether and only the Equity Income fund - biggest one granted - was suspended/ now to be closed. So my guess is he is not a forced seller of Mtph when that Equity Income find starts to unwind in Jan. (that said the Patient Capital fund is not doing well and who knows what will happen with it in the future etc..

But even if he wanted/needed to sell some/all of his Mtph holding there might be a block buyer around market price at that time anyway .. so the effect on s/p would be a guess)

Can anybody give further/better colour on this for me please?

Ps: On the Midatech Pharma web site 'Woodford Investment Management' is listed as a 19% holder here . This is a Company level descriptor and so gives no indication of which of his funds holds these share.

and mine too I see.. a trail off the back of your posts seems to have been taken off completely ....

I find that farcical .. people ramp to the sky's across these BB and never get deleted .. yet someone says zero a possibility and they're binned by administrators.. why on earth .. especially as this share has come off approx. 98% from peak already and so it's dead for many l/t holders anyway, perhaps.. of course this can go to 0p or 10p on whatever..

see below IC comments Barry..

Just did a small top up.. still early in the build back out a decent position journey for me here.. would add more on further weakness only at this time though... hopefully for others long here that doesn't happen.. or only briefly if it does...

PS: How soon to that 450p ish (or 350 p even ?) are you thinking Ananda?

Liking this share up movement.. momentum begets more momentum... so lets get some real momentum going from here now please !

(PS: What to do? Buy low, sell high is the universal answer for a reason imho, bro. Alternatively... do one, bro is an answer you may find from plenty here too, perhaps :-) )

'Yuuuge' tariffs if you want to play in the 'bigly' - big league- Col !! (As the Donald might say)

(Curries vrs Currys/PC World : One guys bottom up valuation of 25p versus the next guys bottom up valuation of 50p :-))

Does your boycott extend to PC World too Col ?

thanks Ariel.. smart of you to be out here previously, well played .. and 'good luck' is hitting the nail on the head imho.. it's all gambling... and as Napoleon said, surround me with Lucky generals only !

Fine post Col. You've done the no's very well already, seemingly.. and since Flybe I've stopped trying number crunching as a rule ..the analysts are wrong an awful lot but so is everyone else, so I just take the average of the analysts as a very broad steer but don't take bottom up crunching particularly seriously: there are so many variables and subjectivities involved that it's frighteningly easy to be miles off altogether (btw not to mind micro component variables, a macro component variable on top of even this morning versus yesterday morning is if there is a Brexit soft deal agreed in the next few weeks and sterling rallies by15% against the dollar then that's another of endless difference makers)

PS; 10 to 18p is an 80 per cent uplift so 18p to 32.5p is the answer :-) Someone call Giles please and tell him to stop messing about and agree that over the w/e and announce on Monday morning.. not to mind this time 31st dec 2019 Gilesers.. this time next Monday.. you know it makes sense !

indeed AA .. surprising to me, somewhat at least...and a bit depressing too, in fairness ; but a loss or gain are not actually realised until a share sale is made and the race in this game can be a long one for those with financial flexibility.. etc

ps; my budget nett neutral comment on last post was a bit inaccurate, on reflection .. no more than a marginal effect would have been better and in line with their own words ..

Progressive/positive RNS for sure imho... and I'm now pretty confident there will be an announcement of a board recommended offer to buy Amerisur outright by mid November, at latest... and probably before. (thank goodness)

I'd be very surprised if such an offer is not at least in early to mid 20's p and 30p plus is a half decent possibility, no doubt. But for those who say that 30 ish p is a base now I offer back that you're saying the market is not just wrong but brain dead stupid. (i.e. we're at 18 ish p as I type, even after this clearish steer RNS) That's dangerous and arrogant imho, although in fairness I used think somewhat like this but have been humbled by reality over the last 2 ish years now: I've learned -painfully enough - that this is a seriously out of favour sector and may well continue to be and so it's very much a BUYERS MARKET.

PS: You've gone quiet on the Trinity Bulletin Board Col.. I wonder why :-)

if the sell down was because of the Trinidad budget then for todays RNS to explain broadly nett neutral effect of it and the s/p to still go down again this morning is bad.. especially including PoO is up decently up in last day or so - Iran oil ship issues etc - and most other oilers are doing decently today. I hope there is not a seller of size off loading by increment here.

A good production lift from this quarter drilling activity is indeed very important here now.. here's hoping.. and I expect there's a decent/good chance of that, at least.

Ps: Management here are supposed to be high quality, apparently.. over to them to demonstrate this now more than ever. please !!

I topped up again this arbo. at .69 ish too..

now hold a fair few more of these than I intended but probably still open to one or two more small top up on any further weakness.. it seems very low now but this is AIM so of course it can still go lower....but hopefully for the long suffering here there won't be further weakness and indeed here's to a decent rally asap..

(semi comfortable with holding of this size in this name and top ups are bringing my average down somewhat each time at least ..just under 1p now.. and might get it down to somewhere in the .8 or .9 p region, at very best)

Speaking of explosions on the ground; here's to us all getting out of dodge with a bang:

Wouldn't it be great if the final chapter in the Amerisur history book was titled : ''The One Bag Bang''

16p quoted 32p offer RNS'd (pretty please)

Fine summary post C/E and fair play pointing out potential playouts on the overhang shares from recent placing. You're getting more balanced by the year and even month in fairness... although from a starting position of galaxies too bullish plenty of scope for further rebalancing in the months ahead, perhaps :-) And great to have Andrew keeping expectations 'real' here via huge knowledge of the detail -especially financial- and much experience here too ( again, over the years I've been here Andrew has been - by miles - the best balanced poster on this bb imho )

The balance sheet is extremely strong here Pipe and that gives them lots of options including a dividend if they so chose, and even a small Div. at low s/p levels would be a nice yield.. and/or its a buyers market too if they want to do a strategic asset purchase.

Also through hedging - including spt optimisation strategies - and very low cost per barrel they're better placed for an oil bear market than many many others.. if one comes (or is already upon us even)

There are up to 8 onshore drill in h2 19 so that's plenty of drilling..and they have clearly flagged that production will again grow in H2.

I like this stock a lot on a fundamentals basis. Granted macro headwinds are present: the sector is hugely out of favour and the government of the land is not being nearly as helpful as it might be and poo is far from ideal at the moment and could go lower. (or could go higher of course)

DYOR

SR is an enormous -multi billion dollar turnover - company dnd.. even if the Bagir guys are dealing with directors there they may be area/sub divisional directors..etc.. and even if they were in close contact - they may not be - those directors may decide/say one thing one day and their boss subsequently decides/says another and their bosses boss soon after decides/says another ..again and again and again over x years of this game now .. Generally, this Bagir game is peanuts / minorly strategic on a scheme of SR things imho.

PS; Similar happening with my Lansdowne O&G position : huge Chinese company APAC behaving disgracefully ( they maintained the money was in the HSBC banking system on its way into LoGp partner Providence Resources account for months. It never arrived.. Chinese business has little shame generally imho.. great at saying one thing and doing another.)