Member Info for NicetoMichu

I'd have to read up more on the Anardarko deal before I could give any meaningful feedback Colonel. .. and I'm a bit too deflated to do that around now.. so no return for me on that Col, apols. (Generally though, small amounts of good price - for the seller that is ! :-) - deals still get done but they're ever fewer and further between which then begets them being fewer and further between again.. etc.. and a new normal is then/now upon us.)

That's a fine post generally though Col. and you are very knowledgeable fellow .. both in this sector on a fundamental basis AND the workings of the markets.. a fairly rare combinations imho.

ETF's are indeed a big problem for AIM. Altogether, there are a whole combination of problems coming together for AIM and it does indeed seem to be a failing market generally and could be argued it has been worsening for a long time. And the O&G sector on AIM has been close to the eye of the storm recently too.

(eg of another big AIM problem : Lots of AIM co's are lifestyle/dreamer co's who are unlikely to ever make it AND have come to market at very high entry prices too, worsening the problem. Many are more quickly being priced for failure
nowadays than they used be, which makes their failure more likely again ( next raise at further massively more dilutive again levels etc..) But a few will still do well and given so many are priced to fail big wins are still a possibility.. and crucial to playing this game for me especially.. but harder and harder to find, alas. )

To me, and as you allude to, a fundamental problem is II ever growing disinterest in this AIM O&G sector. That knocks on to PI's too and altogether it's now a very unloved space with significant liquidity issues. And as horrible as many say the MM's are, my guess is a lot of their ahem 'subtle' manipulation is survival tactics more the profit maximising tactics: when you have to offer prices to buy stocks that seem to endlessly go down it can be brutal for MM's too.

how low this offer is versus the combined Amerisur cash and assets.

I've disliked and been pained by Amerisur from early in my journey here and so walking away with a profit is some small comfort granted. And I will be happy to be finished with this share soon. But I'm still disappointed and even and shocked. There may be a small chance of a better counter offer still granted, but it's very likely small only imho.

More importantly to me, the read across to the rest of the valuations in this sector in AIM is shocking. Again, I offer that the market isn't as thick versus the true valuations as so many who post on these boards say it is. This is another wake up call for me and more so again for the Bulls and especially the uber bulls: Sadly, this proves once again that it's a brutal new paradigm in this space.

Generally, there are some highly intelligent and knowledgeable people posting here whose valuations are based on pre 2015 assumptions, so I request people stop posting massively overly optimistic fundamental analysis across these boards in the other sector names they're in. Also, please be humbler towards the bears on these boards; they continue to be far - far - more on the money across this sector than the bulls and all that happens is they get more and more abuse, which is farcical/pathetic behaviour imho

You are indeed Yacht master. And a variety of opinions offered give balance and make the best BB's imho.

Fine post Zengas. You've probably forgotten more about this stock than I'll ever know. And a few other posters here too are that good, which is very helpful indeed and very much appreciated.

I'm interested in macro more than micro and practice active trading alongside an underlying buy and hold strategy across a large number of names. And a lot of that trading is sadly to get me out of holes that inevitably arise when you play a p/f of many high risk holdings, all towards looking for a few big wins make up - and more - for the plenty of bad picks too)

PS: To me the fact the II's don't like this sector generally at this time - and at future times as much or even more so perhaps - is a very big problem for all names in it, no matter how seemingly good the fundamentals are .. so versus what it took to make a billion or two market cap co. pre for eg 2015, it takes factorially more now.. and much of the assumptions in the bullish s/p predictions analysis I see across AIM BB is still living in the pre 2015 world imho.. Also I offer that people should never forget that ''It's Nigeria (and Niger )'' is perceived as a bad thing far more than a good thing by an awful lot of Investors and hence becoming a £2bn mkt cap co for eg will be much harder again for SAVP imho.

One problem that this stock will always have : It's Nigeria (and Niger) and that will

I guess you're moaning about me Yactmaster.

Firstly, the s/p was 27p odd when I posted and I said in that post that I'm broadly in line with Kalan's view of looking for 35p short term an 75p medium/long term. How on earth is that 'doom and gloom' ??

Secondly, I'm entitled to an opinion as much as you are.

Generally, I have indeed been expressing worry on various oiler s/p's going - further - down for much of this year and sadly I've been far more right than wrong, eg Trinity and President recently. And I do hold - long only - positions in all the stocks I post on, sadly in plenty of cases.

Altogether, I believe you are a member of the biggest majority group on these boards : ''Either tell me what I want to hear or you have no business posting on 'my' board.'' eg There's a guy on Amerisur currently who gets smashed from all angles for predicting a 22p take out, yet guys posting 50p to £1 predictions get loads of ticks up, back slaps etc and I'll repeat here what I have said there: those uber bulls will end up being significantly too bullish imho.. so lets see ( and if they're not fine as Amerisur is my biggest bet .. SAVP is my second biggest bet btw)

Very disappointed that this has not broken through 28p this morning.. and reminds me how hard it is for good fundamentals decent size Producer AIM oilers (and gasers) to achieve good ongoing upward price momentum.Hopefully this one will be different and it could be, in fairness.

Generally, I've seen various price predictions for the future here, especially recently and, while I'd love them to be true, I think the uber bulls here are at least being fanciful and at worst being delusional ( the most dangerous to your wealth posters on AIM are the uber bulls, far more so than the uber bears imho.. especially in this sector in the last couple of years.. eg AIM O&G bulletin boards are littered with many fine bullish calculations offered, the vast majority of which have absolutely failed to materialise.. it's a new paradigm sadly and historic valuations are mostly irrelevant imho)

PS: The prediction I'm most in tune with is Kalan's most recent:
''Very Short term - a little bit of weakness - opportunity to buy in - I am talking hours here.
Short term - 35p - a matter of days - to a couple of weeks.
Medium term - 50p - 6 to 18 months.
Long term - 90p+ depending on oil price and progress with drilling and financial results.''

I'd be very pleased if these shouts come to pass. And longterm I take to be 3+ years out. (I'd be very surprised if this is 75p+ plus in a years time, but accept if things go very well that it could be in 18 months plus time. For the record I'm mildly bearish the price of Oil AND Gas in that 2 year forward window, and that clearly feeds into my view here)

That’s two clearly meaningfully bottom line accreditive rns’s on the quick bounce .. so I’ve topped up here agsinn this morning .. indeed have added 50 per cent more to my bet here altogether recently, bringing my average price way down to boot .. even in this brutal AIM market this s/p should be 5p plus now imho .. 7 p by Feb would be lovely .... tricky share this remains though ...but here’s hoping ..

You are indeed the eternal optimist here George. And that would be one hell of an understatement, perhaps.

Something good needs to happen here to change the trend and quickly imho.. a meaningfully good news RNS asap please !! ( Or a raise at a premium .. but how likely is that, really.. )

Without good news, my current perspective is that staying above 3p is very important for plenty of reasons. I'm not going to elaborate on this comment now because it's difficult enough for many holding here already and I don't want to annoy them further.

In truth, I'd rather have less again of these at this moment in time but as I don't have that many and I'm still - very fortunately - up somewhat decently from my journey so far here and as I feel 'forced' into starting a topping up process here on any further weakness, I have decided to being open to adding by increment - relatively - meaningfully here on any further again weakness, up to doubling my cash bet here. (as having a low average here could become very important if this plays out further badly from here in the coming months... it doesn't have to play out further badly of course, and hopefully it doesn't.... but it very easily could imho, sadly.

You mentioning Yorkville made me shudder Little wing. Please don't use such a word here again :-)

Fine post Andrew and 'can we believe everything he says all the time' made me laugh: NO, CATEGORICALLY (IMHO) At this stage, some would even say 'can be believe anything he says any of the time'.. but not me, in fairness.. as I actually have a good feeling about him and xtr for 2020. And at a few million market cap there is large room for upside if he/they deliver anything like they could in anything like the latest timeframes he offers.

(PS; If Amerisur sell out completes soon - and it should - and this is still under 1p, I'll meaningfully top up here.)

ps this s/p fall is somewhat surprising to me but not very. There are many who distrust CB hugely and they could make a fine case as to why imho. And I'm all for CB bringing in new management here.. this needs real focus now imho.. and has a decent chance with that, I think/hope. DYOR of course

I used post on II before here and Dragon Slayer seemed to be the chairman of the Welsh Branch of the Xtr cult club. And only member too I'd guess, in fairness to the Welsh. IMHO he may have suffered multiple lightening strikes over his many years of cycling his bike up and down the hills and valleys of Wales. Indeed he made Caveat Emptor in his uber bullish days here - while the s/p fell off cliff after cliff - look balanced. Both were extraordinarily wrong for so long but hopefully will be somewhat right in the end ( many have been so meullered here over the years that even 5p would be a pyrrhic victory in the end, sadly ) And in fairness to CE he has become somewhat more balanced recently.. I haven't read DS on II in a year or two years now.

Fine post Andrew !

Once again I'm very disappointed in Quarterly alluvials and once again Colin Bird shows why he has got a reputation for a 'bit of a Bullsh***r'

But, I'm in a good mood because of, seemingly, decent 'Ard Rock progress and, seemingly, decent Zambia progress...hence why I -kindly - added the three small words ' bit of a' before the Bullsh***r !!!

A hard core punters only stock this remains imho.. but I THINK I see plenty of light here now so here's very much hoping for 2020

Thanks for the feedback Confounded and Crl.. and good posts imho.

Interesting that it's strong bull views only that respond here and - widely - elsewhere when I post bear poo views.. supporting my theory that there are more or less only strong bulls left playing -long at least - AIM oilers now, perhaps ? (I'm an exception granted but have only this year changed to poo bearish.. and will bring down my AIM oilier exposure by increment going forward)

I have not read Goehring and Rosenzwig and will probably not either: A bear could come up with quality research to support their position too.

The Saudis and others - eg enormous US Government strategic reserves and growing towards huge Chinese Government reserves - have huge reserves that can clearly be released at VERY short notice. eg The Saudis have just shown us this in a textbook fashion, and the market sees that clearly now more than ever because of this. Also many Opec and friends producers could increase production via turn tap at very short notice too, as proven by the cuts they have ongoingly agreed to try to help PoO. ( and without these cuts poo would be meaningfully lower now )

Your ''Oil looking so strong at the moment'' comment made me smile confounded: PoO has recently gone up a few dollars from a low number, it's still a low number? And altogether, the average 2019 poo will show this to be a bears year in PoO markets, clearly. And more of similar next year is my view. But I hope I'm wrong as I'm still far too long far too many oilers . If Amerisur - my biggest position - sale complete that will address that somewhat granted.. but can I for eg bring myself to sell Trin at 9 odd p or lower.. nope.. but I could easily in the 12p -14p range.

Finally, 9.30p for Trin s/p as I type speaks volumes in support of my views really. It, like many more AIM oilers, is a pretty abject s/p.. and of course it can go lower, sadly. But I very much hope it doesn't.

That is not my Trade this morning FK1.. far too big to be mine.. my total position is currently only 200,000 shares and while I might add a couple more tranches this will never be a meaningfully big bet for me.

Now that a 'large' seller has cleared and with the Solar Winds roll out hopefully in decent progress I see a reasonable possibility of some s/p upticking here in the coming weeks.. but, of course, who knows with this historically very difficult share.

DYOR and for hard core players only imho. (i.e. be prepared to lose much or even all your bet.. or alternatively maybe even do well here, very hopefully )

Fine Noel. Altogether, I feel it best that this post is the last time I address you directly on this BB.

If I lose gbp 5k here Noel, so be it, I'm fine with that. Or indeed if I bet plenty more again here and lose the lot I'm fine with that too. But I could win too, nobody knows for sure what the future hold here or anywhere.

Generally, spare me the sermon(s) please and good luck to you in the future. (And if you were to decide to walk away from this BB now - you may not of course, entirely your decision - it might be a good thing for you imho)

perhaps best wait a year or two more before expressing such sincere gratitude Noel ? :-) Although I understand fully your decision as the pressure of sitting on a big position with a large paper loss was having a serious effect on your life, perhaps. And FK has called this excellently, so far, at least, in fairness.

So I'm guessing you sold shed loads of these to close out your position over recent weeks thus explaining - a least to some significant degree - why the price went down from approx 2p to 1.5p recently ? Interesting in itself, as those who bought to cause that raise are still holding/believing then.. and I draw some comfort from that.

(I'm open to doing at least one more top up here....but am thinking I might still get that at under 1.5p..who knows though..)

That £830 trade was me doing a small top up FK.

Revenue up by 20% is clearly progressive.. obviously it doesn't mention how much costs went up though, nor overall profitability/lossability, nor cash position.. etc..

And the second half of this financial year - Oct to March - may, hopefully, see a meaningful contribution from the Solar winds licencing arrangements too .. and that's a new revenue stream altogether .. and hopefully existing ones keep pushing forward too.

(Like many, many AIM Co's) This company is priced as though it's on it's way to failure.. obviously it has to prove to the market differently.... I think it has a sporting chance, or better, of doing that .. but only time will tell.

PS; I understand why AIM these years prices so many co's so lowly: many AIM co's are or will be, in effect, failing co's .. but some will not be and the returns on those who can come good can be very large indeed .. that's why I still play this game... eg one big win makes good for a lot of bad bets.. mine is a laws of averages view though and so I have 10 flx type bets on the go at any one time.. whether flx becomes a winner of not I'm far from sure.. as long as two, or maybe even one of ten 10 do then overall I likely do ok, or better.)

oups.. not Knot, but Knott, of course.. but you get the picture still :-)

when I say, in that podcast, Andrew comes across as one impressive guy in charge of a company that's about to be massively positively transformed !

In truth, there were times in holding this share when I felt like a frayed knot .... but I say now to anyone who thinks they'll buy this in the 20's p after this deal shortly completes: I'm Afraid Knot !

Good feedback on Solar Winds launch - and indeed the quarters of Flx financial year :-) - Jonesy, Thanks

Fk1..I'm a bit confused here :
I wrote : ''but Solar Winds product roll out should AT LAST be upon us this quarter..''

The first part of your latest message was to me, thanks. Wass the next part too? (or maybe for someone else, like Jonesy for eg.. although I'm confused if it's to him too ?) ie You wrote : ''The results mentioned BENEFIT FROM in the SECOND HALF of the current financial year. I am interested to know what you know that specifically it is THIS quarter?''

If it was to me, all I got in response is : Benefit might be this quarter and it might just be next or it might be both, I guess... but that question doesn't feel like a logical follow from my words in my post of yesterday?

PS: For general context on what I posted I copy here from last RNS :
''The significant marketing power of SolarWinds will be applied to fully launch the product with the support of the TMSP's in the second half of our current financial year. ''