Member Info for NicetoMichu

Thanks for feedback bidnolid.. and pity it was not a more worthwhile event.. but without an AGM RNS update on the morning that's widely the case on such occasions.

re you view on a raise if ruyi deal doesn't complete:

I'm hoping, even if the Ruyi deal doesn't complete in 2020 that Bagir will not need a raise next year and the s/p gets to recover just from business bottom line improvements.. and there is a fair chance of such improvement imho:

turnover is going back up meaningfully
their major business restructuring exercise, while clearly messy during, is now completed
they seem to be improving efficiency, slowly
their half year financials update was decent and progressive ( the debt grow out during 2018- across sundry avenues - is still a medium size worry to me, granted, but they seem set to, at least, arrest that grow out in 2019 )
as touched on earlier by Quickquick and Alpha Omega , ruyi, even if not completing that deal eminently or at all are still keeping them sweet with materials on long cycle credit and maybe /hopefully additional contracts and valuable cross industry introductions
they are a long and decently established co. in this space
this new CEO is potentially a very a good thing and he's now well incentivised to enhance s/p

Hi bidnolid,

Great that you're going to AGM and you seem like a guy with a good handle on the detail here: Nice to hear more from you generally on this BB (we're short of high quality posters imho :-) )

For me, it's a lot about the latest bottom line. So some questions to that end, if I may:

Do they now expect to be Nett Profitable in H2 of this Fin year ( only 1 month of it left so they should have a good view)
If no, will there be EBITDA progress at least in H2 vrs H1? (versus $1.0m H1)

What is the approx. cash & cash equivs around this time (versus $1.6 m at end of H1) At least can they say whether It's higher rather than lower?

Will targeted cost savings -$.8m - in H2 actually happen?

Have liabilities increased or decreased in H2? (eg Loans, Bad debts, credit payables.. etc)

Are they still on target for approx. $60 m revenue for full fin year ?

Thanks very much in advance and I hope it's a worthwhile and positive experience!

Saw this blue this morning and had to double check to see my eyes were not deceiving me.. recent PoO increases should help somewhat here , even including SPT ( forward hedging opportunities too )

After much deliberation I topped up again here this morning.. was only going to do so on further weakness .. but with year end exit rate news soon - and hopefully other news too eg a proposed dividend starting sometime in 2020 - and PoO doing better recently I can see a decent chance at least of this rallying somewhat at least thru Dec... Here's very much hoping.

(I've heavily backed this share recently towards bringing down my average and it's now my second biggest position and I really don't want to take on any more of these now, and so would only add more at under 8.5p now, which very hopefully doesn't happen)

Here's to 11p + in December here.. very please !!!!!!!!!!

I though I read here that Mr Knott offered on that call recently that he attributed the recent s/p weakness to fickle PI money being taken off the table? My guess is if the weakness is for more complicated reasons - eg II hedging resulting in share sales by some third party - that he won't know this, or say this if he does know?

More importantly, Mr Knott needs to do significant road-showing to relevant Institutional Investors to reinforce to them why this is a great buying opportunity now. More Institutional money coming on board here asap is what is really required to drive this s./p meaningfully up from here imho, and certainly none leaving from here - in whatever form, including convoluted - is a crucial thing to avoid any further weakness.

not just Oil shares.. pharma/bio too Silverknight :-) ... and more besides.. maybe simplest just to go with 'AIM shares generally'

The new AIM paradigm : price many shares very very lowly indeed and let them then prove the market wrong.. some will, many won't imho.. wish I was better at picking the ones that will.. used be ok at it, but it gets harder and harder :-(

The record(s) 'WengerOut' - 'EmeryOut' - might well be looking to beat ?! :-)

''The oldest person ever whose age has been independently verified is Jeanne Calment (1875–1997) of France, who lived to the age of 122 years, 164 days. [b] The oldest verified man ever is Jiroemon Kimura (1897–2013) of Japan, who lived to the age of 116 years, 54 days.''

''but the downside is limited''

limited to what jointhedots? If Geo offer fails to get voted through and they then walk away and M&P offer is then said to be no longer on the table and no other offer is immediately visible to the market then this s/p could go decently/significantly down in at least the short term, perhaps?

If pickedpecks post might be perceived as derampy, your last para might equally be perceived as rampy imho

I'd offer that significant upside remains a possibility and significant downside remains a possibility too and lots in between a possibility too. Indeed, as in life, most everything remains a 'possibility'

perhaps silverknight and I hope you're right.

Before announcement of that company saving raise, we said it was priced to fail - very approx. 11 or 12 months ago - and the market cap at its lowest then was in the approx. 3 to 4 m gbp range … it' s getting up towards 15m now: I don't think this is going to fail in the next 6 months at very least and I don't think it's priced to fail .. there are 7 or 8 times more shares in issue now and similarly priced to fail now is in 1p region imho.

The FIRST key question for me is what level of share price and warrant price the next raise takes place at.

I'm fascinated to see how much selling continues here this week and beyond. The longer this selling goes on the more it undermines the idea of it just being short attention span and or twitchy PI's IMHO.. If it continues on then I'm minded of the Premier Oil restructuring journey a few years back.. Bond - holder - funds were given tied in shares as part of that but had bond funds only and so they hedged - ie derivatives - towards guaranteeing a cash price when they got to sell those shares after restriction ended in the future.. and, likely, shares were sold onto the open market by third parties in the short term when most weren't expecting them too. Even if it's not Bond funds here (?) similar derivatives are available to anyone willing to pay for that hedging certainty, I expect.. and market sales in the short term would occur off the back of such contracts being entered into I expect ? Hopefully decent size selling doesn't continue and the parallel I draw can be filed under rubbish bin and this share rallies on up to more appropriate levels, per analysts views etc (ps Premier s/p came back nicely in the end .. although it was helped by good PoO as they went which is a huge thing in trading Premier Oil)

So you remain a holder here Viveka and of similar size to earlier in your journey here?

Where do you guess the s/p goes from current 3p ish levels ?

I've seen mtph as a trading share for a year now and see it more that again going forward.

Thanks for that II article link, interesting.. and that Eddie Stobart logs being taken over would be convenient for the Woodford unwind line got me thinking, again, that it makes more and more sense for the Chinese investor(s) here just to bid for the whole company soon. They've got 50% ish already and could get that Woodford holding backing any half decent bid readily to get any unwind done in a quick/smooth fashion etc.. only need 75% of all shares backing of any bid to succeed I think ?

My GUESS is unless there is meaningfully positive RNS next week this goes into the 2's p and maybe ticks on down slowly but surely on no news towards decently into them. That would be sad.

The firm saving raise warrants raise at 50 p was fine by me ...but then the - Armistice - warrants recently at 4.8p was truly terrible in a number of ways imho.. I seriously thought about selling out here completely off the back of that.. (the earlier are now worthless in my mind and we could be in a race to the bottom for next raises in terms of both s/p and warrant levels and the raise after ..etc.. so good news asap is crucial to try and avoid this.. )

I thought about selling a bunch more of my now small position last week towards putting that into the kitty to buy a lot pf these in the 2p's, if it goes there. Instead I did a plan b small top up in early 3's p.. thinking now I should have gone with plan a ..

I'm hoping II block buyers of the woodford shares would, at worst, come out of the woodwork in the 2'sp... PS : I read that 3 months notice had to be given before unwinds of positions in Woodford Equity Income.... does that mean sell down can't start til jan ? Not good if that is the case... (but we still don't know for certain how many of the shares are in that Equity income fund vrs Patient Cap trust )

Brilliant response Viveka, thanks. I’m under the influence now and so will come back on this in more detail later

Ps I’m b’lls deep in Amerisur .. and far too many other oilers too, and the read across from that recommended offer to the rest I hold is depressing squared )

I feel next week is a very important week for this share.. it needs to find strength from somewhere or else it can go meaningfully lower again imho.

Viveka, I'd love to hear more from you, especially if you get the workings of AIM near as well as you get the devil of the detail on this share generally ….hopefully you're listening and respond? (I feel for eg that the CFO of Mtph doesn't have a clue of the workings of AIM.. why would he really, not least as Neil Woodford certainly didn't..)

fine posting here today thanks and mcb is/has been another top poster here imho.

Mount Teide post interests me a lot too. The workings of AIM in terms of II - including Hedge funds a lot more than people think- MM's plays, and PI's plays are more and more important to have a view on too imho. And macro views are very important too.. eg PoO Brent is forecast by EIA to average $60 pb in 2020. Even including recent weakness it will likely average around $65 in 2019.... so I bet shed loads of II's are further bearish this sector and, while they certainly don't have to and hopefully don't, of course things can get worse for the sector, hard as that my be to take/comprehend for many. That said - and as mentioned already here -there are always winner stocks whatever, so lets hope this is one !

There are fine sector technical understandings and specific stock detail understandings on the good boards on LSE but it's pretty rare they get married well with understandings on the workings- read manipulations a lot for workings - of AIM imho. eg Amerisur board had plenty of 'brilliant' posters and they were almost all very wrong on their s/p views. Ditto here recently and ditto elsewhere widely ( remember more or less, the only PI's left playing long the AIM O&G space are Oil bulls.. so any balance, could be more balanced again if uber bears posted widely too.. and they don't really.)

PS: when Mr Knott says that recent weakness is nervous or 'day tradery' type PI's fault, I think to an extent sure, but maybe it's more complicated than that. For eg even shares that have no sale tie in periods might have derivatives created alongside by sophisticated hedge funds that results on underlying sales occurring by some Institution somewhere very soon after those shares are issued. And institutional algorithms can then read a sign to sell down further off the back etc. Also MM can take out stop losses very manipulatively, particularly in lower volume situations. And falling s/p can force people playing long on margin out too by default, who are far from nervous PI's ( takes far more b*lls to play on margin than with own cash...I wouldn't do it in a million years on the AIM cesspit )

I hear you SuperDad and it's very unlikely I'd vote against this deal if no better deal is offered between now and then.

Mange tout Urbanracer, Mange tout !

Better add something positive here for a change :

I've just topped up here and will do so again and again on any further s/p weakness. This s/p is seemingly very low now so hopefully we are close to it turning back up somewhat at least.. but, sadly, of course it can go lower, as there is a frightening lack of demand for these shares still even half meaningful selling sadly brings this further down. I've played this badly so far but not terribly, I hope... and so my average price can still come down to 10p soonish, perhaps (approx. 11.75p now).. more exposure for me than I'm comfortable with here though to do that so I'd likely sell a decent tranche on any sort of recovery above 10p.. if/when that were to happen. And of course it could happen and very hopefully it does asap.

PS: A dividend here, while not as good as share buyback by a good ways in my mind, would at least be something pretty helpful, so bring it on asap please.. and very importantly, achieve that year end promised production exit rate, very please.. that could be decently north of 10% production growth from last year and that's clear progress too.

Fair play Brasso.. only time will tell how **cking mad you are. But having as low an average as possible here is massive...

Sale to a third party or taken private by PL could easily be at not a huge premium to the s/p at that time for eg .. and the s/p bounce that hopefully will eventually come here and might even hopefully be a vey good percentage one might still not be a great boost for some/plenty ... eg 100% on 4p is not going to make many long-termers here rich.. far - far - from indeed.

I intend buying more of these again soon.. and maybe even, relatively speaking, lots more as I didn't hold that many when the latest s/p melt down started, fortunately in this case ( less fortunate in other cases )

PS: Rock solid starting buying at this level is at a huge advantage to most here, clearly, but good for him for timing.... although some of the points he makes in his post are are not rock solid imho.. but I'm not going there as I've done enough marco AIM O&G negativity previously and I'm not going to annoy long suffering longs further.. and of course good stock pickers - including at good price entry levels, obviously - can win well in all sorts of difficult environments.

Thanks Kalan and well put.. and thick skin gets developed along the way .. it's a tricky one too as there are a lot of good people out there - plenty with excellent understandings of the space and the names they hold - getting into genuine financial strife off the back of playing - long - the AIM O&G game- and indeed the AIM game generally as it's close to a failing market now imho -and you've got to feel for them because it's genuinely brutal imho...

Olde Malcay is getting more widely more hated by the month nowadays.. and he was a hero in 2016 and good in 17 too ( and I'm very thankful to him for 16 especially ) The problem is pre 2015 s/p pricing norms in the sector have been seemingly been obliterated and many long termers have been very blindsided by this - seemingly- barbaric new paradigm, and me to a reasonable extent, in fairness....'denial' and 'coming out fighting' in such circumstances are natural reactions...so i'm likely going to tone down the negativity a bit soon.... but not completely.

I too think this stock has a genuine chance of appreciating decently from these non stretching s/p levels and get why you averaged up here today Ginoir. I did similar last week here - rather it this week now of course but on a scheme of things no biggie either way- and my average is now 26p instead of 25p and that was only the second time in a very long time that I have averaged up on an oiler stock in my p/f ..and I hold lots, indeed far too many of them, I'm now thinking... But while the sector may be bombed out - and can of course bomb out further, but can of course bounce too- there are always opportunities for the best stock pickers eg Serica and Eland - and Faroe, Ithaca etc- were good example in the producer space in recent years.

ps: boy do I know that reluctantly averaging down on sundry other oilers feeling :-) I focus on averaging down on two at a time and if ever a bounce occurs to anywhere near my latest b/e I sell a large tranche of the position, but not all the position as some would say that many AIM O&G'ers are very cheap now. ( I very much hope they're right.. and towards balance I do always offer on any given BB that that AIM Oilers can of course go up as well as down, but also that s/p can of course go further down too, I often get abused for the latter comment and guess what happens, the s/p usually goes further down.. I then offer the same again, get more abuse again and the s/p usually goes further down again.. etc... I then say in my defence, that I've called this well recently guys... and get more abuse again.. etc... :-))

I've posted some of my more punchy thoughts on PO&G on the Trin.l board recently Kalan .. I'll not annoy others here by pasting/reposting them again here (Trin is another one where I'm trying to average down again and again to get out of a - smallish so far at least, in fairness - hole .. story of my recent life in AIM O&G - producers -sadly.)

(Altogether, my biggest concern is even if PO&G does go back up, the stocks will not follow it up from current, seemingly, very low s/p levels anything like as much as they should 'by rights' do; as happened in 2018.. that's not to say they wont go up a bit, but up a bit at this stage is awful for most long termers alas.. nightmare scenario: lose, on PO&G down or up... but who knows what the future holds and everyone is indeed entitled to their own opinion ..)