Member Info for NicetoMichu

The share pricing dynamics in play on AIM in recent years make such 450p valuations completely farcical imho.

AIM, on average, prices for company failure and so even those companies who buck that assumption will have their s/p's so discounted along the way - especially including raises that are forced into being at such lowly s/p levels eg FUM - that even if winning in the end it's generally only a pyrrhic victory versus coming to market levels and the only long winners are those with very low averages versus the average historic s/p graph.

The pricing mechanisms in play in AIM are a hugely important area of expertise in themselves.

Calling all Einstein's here:

''Zijin Mining, one of China's biggest mining companies, has made a $1bn (£770m) cash offer for Canada's Continental Gold.
It said the deal would increase its gold reserves and boost production.
“The completion of the acquisition can raise the company’s gold resources reserve volume to over 2 thousand tonnes and increase the production volume of mine-produced gold by approximately 20%,” Zijin said in a statement.
It has offered C$5.50 a share in cash, a premium to Friday’s close price of C$4.87. Newmont Mining, which holds a fifth of Continental, said it will back the deal. Continental has extensive gold mining operations in Columbia.''

Creme de la Menthe chaps, Crème de la Menthe !?

Nice to see some buying interest here!

Off the back of that and after much deliberation, I've decided to tranche small top up - eg 25,000 shares a pop - into weakness at intervals of .3p down here.. ( Having bought a tranche late Nov at 3 p ish and bought a tranche today at 2.70p I would - only - buy another at 2.4p and another 2.1p etc.. if it goes that low and very hopefully I don't get to top up any more here now !!!! )

IF they can do the next raise(s) at around the same price as the last ones and use warrants at lower price(s) to incentivise participants for that raise then I can see this helping meaningfully here. And IF they can give some good clinical news soon ish too then altogether there could of course be some sort of a rally here.

(All that said this is an extremely high risk bet in my mind and with trader hat only on and my time again I would have sold out of this completely at whatever was available over 4p here.. and am still perhaps open to selling out at least somewhat if/when it reaches such levels again... my average is around 4.5p now too which would help in me doing that selling, granted.... And if further s/p weakness from here I feel the need to look to get my average down well into 3's p )

so small chance of an update RNS at 7 am tomorrow I guess.
some buying today ahead of that AGM a possibility too..
and if an impressive AGM then some buying tomorrow a possibility too ( if not impressive some selling a possibility too of course )
With SolarWinds software rollout now- at last - in train and general business development seemingly progressing this company has a reasonable chance of meaningful bottom line progress in 2020.. very hopefully. ( that has been said a fair few years previously to no avail, granted.. but SolarWinds angle is a new thing and so gives more hope this time, to me at least )

and the Chinese

I like both the Israelis and the Welsh.

ps: maybe SHLOMO.CKHAIM.BEN EZRY is a friend of ruyi.. or at least very open to being one

ditto other buyers of size recently too ...
:-)

approaching frightening play out here now for me..

I feel I have to throw a bit more in the pot but can't figure out at what level to look to do that .. can't bring myself to do it this morning.. maybe if it goes under 2p i'll buy some.. maybe I just wait a fair while longer and see.. thinking I would only do by increment, and time spaced decently apart..

I understand that I might well be just throwing good money after bad... the one thing I would say in favour is that great bang for your buck in bringing your average down is/will be available here.. and having a low average might give players some chance in the future play out here...

now to just offer to buy this company outright for say somewhere around 2p a share .. I'd vote for that and guess many others would too ? not least as lots, including II's, have picked up previously longer term ii holders recently dumped shares at relatively low prices and so plenty of holders now have low average prices versus 2p and could make a quick/easy up to 100 or 150 per cent?

The company is in an ok financial state, has enough turnover to be able to make it profitable on its own or certainly with help from new owner ruyi and has skilled cheap factories/workers.. not least in the latest 'fashionable' country like Ethiopia.

Why buy a 50 odd per cent controlling stake at 3.5p when you could have the whole co. for a similar outlay... and they could keep it listed on AIM for whatever tactical reasons too if they wanted to, or not either.

Some might say: unless bagir next financial update in March ? might be a strong one and the s/p might rally off the back and any offer would then have to be upped to reflect that.. i'd offer back : but ruyi will know at least semi accurately how the year end state of play in bagir is in Dec/Jan anyway.. and if decent they just bid before that market update, having quietly gotten a few key shareholders with now low averages on board ahead of then.

fine by me if this does 10 bags from here and then vanishes :-)

I haven't looked at trades in that window draft .. the market cap is tiny here ..gbp 1.5 m ? and they may have had some - under 3 per cent already - and so is lots of small trades to make up 100k gbp buying a possibility ? (buying in size would give the game away and so a broker would work small slowly to look like a taff evans)

the s/p did go up a bit in mid Nov ish bidnolid..my guess is the position was built up over previous couple of weeks to 25th and they didn't report until finished buying - no idea whether that would be totally in line with reporting rules - and I also guess there was a willing seller of size still about and so they got this much without moving the s/p up much.. hopefully that seller of size has now been fully cleared .. it would have certainly been diminished significantly further at least. so whatever it's a good thing in multiple ways ..

if small chip pI's like us posting here are not a focus for management, as long as deep pocketed Investors instead are then fine by me.. they make the real difference one way or other

generally, roadshow presentations by Bagr management to deep pocketed potential local - or wider - investors is/would be time well spent imho.. no idea if that has been done in this specific instance .. and it could of course be informal 'presentation' over dinner /drinks too... and such local investor(s) liking what they hear and then buying in here gives me decently more confidence here ..

Israeli's are well known for looking out for each other, and why not as it has been difficult for them a lot...so I've followed that Tr1 money and topped up twice this morning..

much needed rally today.. thankfully.. very volatile still .. but lets look up towards 25p instead of down towards 20p, hopefully...

race is long here though and it has barely started.. so I'll post less again here for a while forward now, I expect..

(I'm here for more than the short term so patience easy for me here .. also other shares I need to focus on more at this time, for various different reasons)

Good luck to all fellow longs.

When the next raise happens is interesting me a lot at this time ..

Financially How long can they hold off is the big q.. raising after any woodford unwind would be optimal, probably.. but how long might that unwind take.. it happening in the open market would indeed be carnage so I don't want to even think about that happening.. so if II's need good clinical progress to help then decide to take the woodford shares on at some half decent price then hopefully some can be reported in Déc or Jan.. then smooth /quick woodford unwind to II(s).. then raise .. might be the best plan.. but so much is out of mtph control and to fund next stage testing may need at least a good few million raised early in the NY etc.. too may moving parts here.. so I'll just give up thinking about this soon..

( and perhaps park the idea of buying more here in the 2p's too.. or perhaps not, if other shares I hold progress in Dec.. )

Thanks Viveka,

He Interviews impressively ironically …

Apols on the 100m raised at IPO guess.. 32 m at IPO the man says it was .. Was there a very quick after IPO further raise before that interview as the s/p chart shown in interview has Market Cap of 80m gbp at a s.p of 300p approx. (and it came to market at 250p approx. very soon before that ) ?

Very sad how it has all gone really.. and not just s/p wise ... the pace of progress has been far slower than expected too.. that ties into financial performance of course .. but maybe all for a good cause in the end.. I hope

PS; It's not all their fault imho as the workings of AIM then versus more recently are frighteningly different ….the resultant pricing collapse of such co's, on average, has been tragic .. and any raises they need to do as they go are at such low share price levels that it's catastrophic .. a lot comes back to long only II's who are fed up of being screwed over the decades on AIM and if they don't support the s/p's after IPO the s/p can extraordinarily easily be collapsed..

bagr are long beyond such salutary lessons bidnolid.. they were just being consistent today :-)

That said, words come easy ...as most AIm Ceo's prove most every day of the week ….

and altogether this is still a business that has a half decent - more than big granted - chance of being turned into a sustainably profitable one imho.. and in the end that's what really counts for ruyi and us

thanks for feedback from Tesa on possible raise bidnolid.. a raise at very low s/p levels would be far far from good news imho..good point on 1p nominal value k3yser.. to reconstitute that down would take an egm so a raise sub 1p not going to happen early in 2020 whatever i'd guess ..

(Ruyi would complete on deal if fundamentals of bagr are sustainably picking up i'd guess.. in that case any need for a raise would have been far less anyway.. if they don't complete on deal because bagr business sustainability not picking up then need for a raise far more obvious anyway... )

Excellent post Viveka and much appreciated.

I believe mtph will be given full opportunity to get at least Mtd201 and MTX110 to market and if they do succeed in that then that will be a fine thing towards advancing medical science and sundry 'investors' here can be proud of our contribution to that. And it's nice to give something back in life. (I stayed involved here recently when my Trading head was telling me to sell the lot in the 5's or 4'sp for that reason, mostly)

Now for the negative :

You say:
''Anyone looking at the share chart will think it’s just another failed binary investment in pharma and give it a wide berth.''

I say:
They'd be absolutely right in their view then. This company came to market at very approx. 250p. - raising way of 100m ? - Including raises to come, it would take a minor miracle for it to ever reach 25p again ( I give it a lot less than 10% chance of ever reaching 25p again ) And if for eg 15 m from here was raised somewhere in for eg ,on average, the 2's p I'd be very surprised if this ever made over 15p again. And, altogether, at this moment in time there's a far great chance of this going to a 1p than 10p in my mind. Financially, this company will have been a total and utter disgrace from coming to market to entering 2020. Hopefully that changes even somewhat in the 2020's

Towards something positive to finish:

If the next raise is eve close to the Chinese and Americans 3.9p - and warrants around say the 4p level or higher - then at least one corner will have been turned imho. ( and any woodford unwind can be done en block to II's in the 3'sp at worst then) If they can follow that up with some good trial updates this can get back to 6 or 7 p in q1 2020 imho. Hopefully then they can quickly do a good sized raise at 5p +