Member Info for NicetoMichu

Interesting discussion on PoO by jfk and Confounded .. I might as well throw in my few pennies worth :

While notoriously hard to call, you've still got to have some sort of broad view on PoO to play in this space. And my medium term view has changed from moderately bullish to moderately bearish in the last year or two.. and it's the supply side far more than the demand side - demand will hold up pretty decently, at least imho - that has given rise to my change of view. Including SHALE oil and better discovery and extraction technology in conventional oil generally, the potential for ongoing supply growth even at $60 Brent /$55 WTI is large going forward.. and will further outstrip demand growth going forward imho. Cartels like OPEC and friends can mitigate this to an extent by controlling supply, and I think they will try to do that HARD, as they'll absolutely need to.. or else, big ouch, but everyone still knows the supply is sitting there ready to turn tap on in short order and so the price will find it very difficult to rise. So, altogether, average $60 Brent over the next three years would be a good result imho.

NETT Profitable/ strongly cashflow generative Oilers at this level can still do decently, maybe even well -but not very well imho - theoretically.. but will they? ( they generally haven't this year for eg ) I agree they MUST treat their shareholders far better to have a chance of their s/p's doing well; and that is indeed about Dividends , Share Buybacks and ALSO about outright sell ups at good premiums to current s/p's at a one off profit opportunity or loos minimisation opportunity for existing shareholders. (it's also plenty about things like ctrl also mentions such as good business plans that ARE delivered on and less pig like behaviour on large Executive reward packages and good communication too)

Finally, even if PoO were to average higher than my guess ..lets say eg $65-70 Brent in 2020 is a possibility.. it might be somewhat academic for small Oilers now, as, taking out the afore mentioned extras of dividend etc, the share prices no longer follow PoO up anything like as much as they used do because the market believes that oversupply will always see such poo gains as relatively short lived anyway.. eg 2018 saw PoO rise back towards $80 and did the share prices, on average, go up anything like they should have had 'in context': absolutely not, indeed far - far - from.

PS: I'm amazed not to see more poo/oiler s/p bears like jfk posting on these boards in recent times.. I guess they couldn't be bothered and have busily been shorting away, or more likely - as shorting is still more for pro hedge funds types - they've been finding other sectors to play in and so only the bulls are left playing Oilers, especially AIM Oilers.

Hey there Kalan, good to see you doing well on Jubilee and here and elsewhere too I guess/hope! I'm absolutely still here and will be for a good while yet, at least !

Altogether, you're one of the stock pickers I rate most highly on these boards (hopefully not the kiss of death.. eg after I said that to Geng he has had an absolute mare on Bagir, so far... and only a few days ago I noticed he called Amur going to 1p from 2p and it went up to nearly 4p almost immediately, although crashed back to under 3p immediately after .. still far from one of his better calls.. but even for the good players there's plenty of bads.. you just gotta hope that altogether the good outweighs the bad.. and ideally by lots :-) )

Great news and I'm now back in profit here after a hard journey, so far.

The market reaction is indeed - somewhat imho - surprisingly muted, so far. But not much shock to harder core players in this game I expect, as it shows for the nth time what a brutal place AIM - especially O&G - is to be long in recent times.
eg Perhaps there's so little movement in here from PI's today as there are so few left playing the game, especially in this sector, at this stage :-)

II's may wait until the final deal completion announcement to consider adding more - and considering and doing are two different things, not least as II's have little interest in the sector for bigger picture reasons - and I note no anticipated date has been offered by SAVP for this final completion, although Mirabauld saying they're hoping for the end of the month is a useful steer, hopefully ( so the court process is the next administrative stage but there are more administrative stages after that ?... and those signatures, while legally obliged, may still take their own good time.. I'm guessing the court process can go ahead in anticipation of the legally obliged signatures completing after the court process, as they cant be absolutely certain they'll be achieved by early next week?)

Altogether , I guess this s/p go up decently in the coming weeks and months but more steadily than spectacularly.. but consistent steady over months is fine too as long as it gets to 50p etc in due course

And finally: it's still Nigeria (and Niger) ! ...that said, If Amerisur come in even decently for me I'll add meaningfully more here!!

I'm beginning to think you're looking to haunt me dibs.. Ashly house car crashing seemingly and so wise of ypou to bail, seemingly.. and now you're over here to see another one off, seemingly Maybe you and falling knife can figure out shift patterns towards keeping up the misery quota here 24*7 instead of the just current 12*5 ! :-)

Flx has of course been struggling to get real momentum for years now and so that's always a big concern.. and the s/p certainly has born full witness to such concern...but Solar Winds product roll out should AT LAST be upon us this quarter.. that could of course change the mood music markedly, very hopefully. So writing this company off at this point is not merited imho.

Altogether, Flx can of course still turn itself nett profitable in shortish order or could of course fail in due course, too. Place your bets or not as you see fit

(I sold out a good few on recent spike - at a small loss granted - and so my position is only about 3k gbp here now, so not a focus for me and also leaves me room for another top up or two to bring my average further down, so under 1.4p would see me have another bite... fool that I may be ..

an average of under 4p is tasty , very tasty zahirmiaboutlook… and ditto to anyone else here with similar... only a small chance I'll get down to that level too, but still a chance at least, I suppose. And I guess 95+ % of PI's currently holding here would bite your hand off for that average.

Surprisingly to me, nothing like as many meaningfully involved II's would though.. as the Chinese hold over 50% at just under 4p? and the latest American investor 10+ per cent similarly.. and the Woodford shares, IF being sold on, may change hands under 4p too.. usually on AIM its the II's with the high averages versus the PI's as many II's are in early in the journey and many AIM shares go down seemingly endlessly :-)

Ps; Love the ongoing optimism George and good content too thanks, anything is possible in s/p terms and I hope you're bullishness is right this time... you've been extremely consistent for years here now, both in optimism terms and massively overly bullish s/p predictions terms :-)

good to throw out some positivity there Timmy .. but 'not as spectacular a rise as it could have been' is some understatement imho :-)

(and if this plays out further dilutedly very badly from here, which it easily could, but hopefully won't or at least only somewhat will, that could be the understatement of the century eg if altogether 15m gbp plus raises still to come before revenue generation at for eg an average of 3p - it should be - much ?- higher, hopefully on good news etc, very please - then, sadly, anybody with for eg a 20p plus average may never see their money back, even in the optimal case of drugs getting to market and company doing very well generally in the future)

Well said George on the primary goal here of enhancing/prolonging lives of patients more than money being made by PI and II. Therefore - as I said shy of a year ago - even I lost big here I'd still see it as a donation to advancing medical science.

So much for that 3.9p base holding, damn.

Timmy, there are very approx. 8 times more shares in existence now than when the co. was close to going under.. so 3.75p now is a much higher market cap than that same figure back then ( from memory I think this had a low of well under 3.75p btw IN DAY - historic charts show end of day not in day - back then and that equated to a market cap of VERY approx. 3m gbp... happy to stand corrected on that, of course)

Having thought about this yesterday - see to my last post - I panic sold a small amount more at 4 ish p but defo. will not sell any more of my holding now as its too far off my average versus the decent medium term prospects here. However, this can go lower from here, easily.. but doesn't have to either, hopefully: If even a small amount of Woodford shares were sold in open market then this s/p could easily be brought down meaningfully further, as few buyers around as they don't know how much more might subsequently be sold into open market ..etc. ( my guess if the price came down somewhat further block buyer(s) would more likely be tempted to off market buy large around that price thus limiting the downside ) Another problem is a new low base might be the basis of the next raise, which would make the latest 'giveaway' raise look not a giveaway at all.. and so the downward spiral could continue, somewhat... and further again undermine any potential medium term s/p upside here too. Still, I'd be surprised if this goes into 2's p... but not amazed.

Altogether, It seems to be patience and nerve holding time again here, I guess.. deja vu from less than a year ago..and this remains a very - very - difficult share to be long, sadly. ( especially for long term buy and hold players )

I've added back to my rump position - got seriously involved on last big retrace and sold out most at a nice profit, kept a few towards building a position out again in the future - here this morning. And am open to adding more as we go.

If they don't have a good value contract(s) for new orders secured by end of this year - if they do then that will be great for s/p anyway - my guess is that the offer(S) to be submitted by mid December will be of high enough value for the company to proceed with proposing an outright sale to shareholders in jan. for an amount meaningfully -of hopefully significantly - higher than the current 16p s/p.

They obviously have one keen buyer in negotiations already and if another one or more is interested a 'bidding war' would be very nice indeed.

This has strong potentially to be a win - sale of co. - or a win - new orders and no sale of co - in my eyes - sale falling through and no new orders being the caveat - and I'd be surprised if this s/p is not 23p+ - and hopefully decently higher - by early 2020

That absolutely makes sense Viveka, and I was very wrong first time round on this. I should have looked more closely by far at the forms and though much harder before posting, so sincere apols. for that and it again shows that it's GREAT to have you posting here. Please keep regularly contributing.

Re the other 11.5m shares taken up. From the original raise RNS wording, it's seemingly only one II that participated in this latest raise -and - from the interest notification RNS - based on:

''The position is held by Armistice Capital Master Fund Ltd (the "Fund") managed on a discretionary basis by Armistice Capital, LLC. Armistice Capital, LLC is controlled by Steven Boyd, its managing member.''

my guess is that Mr Boyd allocated those 11.5 shares to some other Fund(s) - separate from the Master fund - within the Armistice Cap funds family and as it's under 3% of the total issued share cap. it does not have to be declared.

So Woodford's holding has not had any selling down done so far.. and assuming it's all held in WEIF - and we're still not absolutely certain of that, although per your postings it's likely that it all is.. but just some could be too, of even none if he did a complete transfer back to WPCT sometime in 2019 ahead of leaving Woodford IM .. and whatever might be in latter fund may not be sold by new FM Schroders at all in 2020 ...etc.. - then that's sill a lot of shares to find a new home for .. which is at least somewhat concerning.

To be honest, in context of afore, I'd now consider selling another tranche of my now small holding here instead of buying more, at this time, at least (while I obviously hope it goes up, this can at easily go down as up in the short term in my mind.. but that 3.9p base holding gives me fair hope at least )

Whatever, I'd still keep most of my remaining shares here going in 2020 from loyalty/medium term hope.

welcome on board rob and good luck.... you're now the guy with the lowest average here probably/I guess :-)

10k shares of 10k gbp btw?

if there was about to be news that day or the next trading day or two then wouldn't there be more trading on leak / noise / rumour etc. and not less ?

My guess is MM are starting with a wide spread every morning now to give themselves more protection in case the leak/noise/rumour starts heavy trading activity during that trading morning, and the closer to end of trading day the happier they are ease off such protectively wide spread?

(Per my guess after last update RNS, I'm still hoping for notification of bid around mid Nov...and I still think the best it will be early 30's p and I'd be ok with anything over 25p and very pleased with 30p )

hope I'm not misinterpreting this - happy to stand corrected ?- but they seem to already have found a home for over half the Woodford holding.. and a block buyer happy to transact at/around current market price ...so minimal market impact so far ..

And sold to a US buyer who has over 10% now which nicely adds balance to the shareholder register here imho …

Very hopefully the rest is unwound as smoothly.. (that 3.9 p recent - and previous too - raise price may - hopefully - act as a floor here .. so staying above that is important in my mind)

here's hoping

This is clearly a good bottom line enhancing update and across multiple fronts.
And even including this being a ridiculously difficult s/p to get moving up this the should - 'hopefully' - rise somewhat decently today.. and to help it I've added some for first thing this morning in a long time. My average price now down to approx 6.5p but I'm open to adding more soon enough to bring that down decently further. As long as progress is clearly altogether being maintained. (A very very tricky share this all the same so care ongoingly required !)

PS: Good post rocksolid !

From todays RNS I see Link - or their designate - starting to unwind Woodford position.... this unwind will be interesting..

(for disclosure: after plenty of thought I've sold down 25% of my holding earlier this week and now have £5k only bet here at an average of approx. 5.5p... I was - very - tempted to sell more in truth but loyalty stopped me.. and I've been lucky in trading this profitably so far )

The financial health isn't just improved it's massively improved and that's fundamentally important in any business. And investment is always required to grow one way or other and they can do that meaningfully now readily.

Also if this s/p keeps going down Trin.l becoming more and more a buy out target imho.. if not by a big player buy out then at least consolidation amongst that regions Oil sector players makes sense now.

(ps My biggest position is Amerisur and that retreated to a ridiculously low s/p versus fundamentals and that's likely to be taken out in next month or so.. granted price uncertain still but likely higher than 17p indicatively offered which they refused when Amerisur was trading at 12p , whatever.. Trinity in 8's would be a getting towards similar 'ridiculous versus fundaments' imho.. and if there's a meaningful seller about it can of course go that low, and lower sadly.. hopefully it doesn't obviously )

at least you've woken this BB up Get-on -it.. perhaps Rossanan will take your posting as a trigger to get back involved in the debate here.. everyone is entitled to their opinion and it won't be boring with you both contributing :-)

Ps: why is it if some say 70 p to £1 and they get no abuse yet someone says 22p and they get lots.. the history of AIM shows you that the uber bulls are far more dangerous than uber bears to a long players wealth yet the earlier get mostly praise /encouragement and the latter abuse: farcical imho

''In my opinion we're ridiculously cheap at today's valuation, though I'm very confident Simon Thompson will come back before Xmas with a very strong buy recommendation but only after the funding gets sorted, we could even be his main 2020 share tip.''

Interesting Thomas but I'm defo. not on board with all that: The last time the funding was 'sorted' was not very long ago at all and that was horrendous to the s/p.. ie it dipped lower than 6p, briefly from memory.... I'd understand someone saying that 'ridiculously cheap'... and it proved to be and I'm thankful ..right now we've moved on a bit in further testing but not yet a very large amount and so 25p is not a bad s/p in context imho.. and is definitely not ridiculously cheap imho.. I'd like to build out a half decent position here again - 3rd time around and have had a good journey both times previously - but have only a small one so far and would only add in small tranches from early 20's p down - maybe a buy every 2 or 3p down thereafter, if it goes that low.. and it may not of course, and I'd be happy for long suffering long and strongs here if it doesn't.

A total buy out by the Chinese might be a half decent possibility here now?

Although, between the two Chinese - 'concert party' - entities they hold over 50% already...which is somewhat controlling anyway... so maybe that in itself is enough for them.

But if the Woodford shares are available for total off market block sale at a very reasonable price then that could complicate things.

Generally, I instinctively feel it's important mtph try very hard to get a bunch of US/UK/Euro investors money in here very quickly to counter balance the Chinese already 50+% holding. The very - very? - generous terms of Warrants recently given to that US II may be show they are indeed trying to do this and asap.. and so more II's money on similar terms to be announced soon? And the Chinese, as very large shareholders here already, may have ok'd this move too, in fairness. ( their mtph warrants now look like appalling terms versus the latest ones issued, after all ) And they may even be for UK/US II(s) buying up those Woodford shares to avoid them having to ..and any AIM rule based consequences to the Chinese going to up to 70% here, in concert (if there are any ?)

As long as this stayed listed on AIM then us PI's mightn't be concerned, whatever.. most just want a chance to share of s/p upside that MIGHT arise in the future here... and having the Chinese on board may well make good upside more likely to happen anyway.. and there are so many permutations possible anyway that it's all a big of game of chance... not least the trail drugs getting licences in the first place !! :-)

Place your bets or not.. as you see fit :-)

Maybe it's wass buying ? How big is the question.. Digging deep and pulling out a large one, hopefully !

Good to hear feedback from you today George, and surprised not to have earlier.. I though you were taking some 'in shock' days off posting of the back of the latest raise etc.. but from todays post I guess not :-) Your religion on this share is amazingly strong George ! No matter what, even if it goes into 2's p I have no doubt you'll still be super bullish on the medium term here.. and of course there is still much upside potential even including enormous - and further ongoing - dilution here IF they get key drugs through further trail phases. I very much hope it works out great for you and other long suffering here.

PS: What are you referring to with this George:

''Can't believe that some retail buyer was happy to force a deal at 3.4p and not expect a multi-bagger in the coming months.''