Member Info for NicetoMichu

Its the Trinidad budget then that's the cause of todays fall then .. thanks for feedback crl .. Real shame the government is playing this way.

Not everything announced today is bad for Trin though, hopefully ? eg The only clearly meaningful headline from the budget I can find from a quick search:

''In­crease in­vest­ment tax cred­it for en­er­gy com­pa­nies from 20% to 25% to stim­u­late ex­plo­ration and de­vel­op­ment in­vest­ment from Jan 1, 2020.''

wow.. sub 10p it is.. scary …

fool that I may well be I just did a small top up at just under 10p..

I'd go again and bigger in 8'sp ,.. but hopefully it doesn't go there..

AIM is a joke

I said hello to you over there silverknight ! trin is indeed cheap.. but it sadly keeps getting cheaper.. oilers/gassers are scarier than pharma/bios even !!!!! :-)

oups, meant to add: we'd like ruyis cash, free machinery, discounted raw materials.. etc.. and their business too, of course.. and any one of those is better than none.. and we can hopefully still get all of those.... and we certainly still get at least some of these, of course...

You post an awful lot here dnd. Some of your posts are good, in fairness, whatever about the rest :-)

Ps : ''This seems strange to be that there doing business with ruyi but don't know what's going on with machinery''

How long have you been holding here? I've been here for years now and it doesn't seem strange to me at all. (i.e. as has been the case for a very long time, ruyi tells bargir what it suits ruyi to tell them and when it suits ruyi to tell them .. an untailored suit type of relationship, so to speak :-) )

ps: Good post Alpha Omego imho:
''They might just work with us instead of buying half the company. If they want to send contracts our way like they're doing in Vietnam without taking shares then that's absolutely fine by me. We don't need their cash, we need their business.''

2pm tumbleweeds... oh well on rally today...suns out in London for now at least so I'm off out soon.. and indeed - timmy - roll on good news on mtx110 this phase results asap now.. and a decent rally off the back - very - please.. here's hoping !!

that's true enough too Timmy,

201 is massive for mtph versus all else imho....if this early study for 201 goes badly then its a huge problem for mtph.. if it goes well then opens the way for next phase(s), which is, in effect, very good news.. although monies raise required for next phase(s) too granted .. and feedback on this in but a few months time.. so opportunity for new P'I' players to get involved I'd hope(d).. ( towards balance, maybe mgmt. are very confident that this first study is very low risk and will be fine so speculators wouldn't see it as a participation 'thing' anyway )

My guess now is there's a - relatively - big raise coming in next 2 months.. i.e. ahead of todays announced study, results .. and it would have been great if this s/p rallies to allow that raise to be at as high a level as possible.. if it doesn't rally, it mightn't even flat line either.. (AIM shares are volatile as a rule )

George is recently offering no lower than recent 5's p.... which might too end up meaning a raise in 5's p.. I'd like it to be at a higher level - of course - but a few weeks ago thought it could easily be in 4's p, in truth.. it could still be in 4's p, but a somewhat less chance of that now in my mind.. if it had rallied more decently recently there could have been a raise at higher /decently higher than even 6p.. for a multi million raise, extrapolation of even for eg 5p versus for eg 7p is a big difference.
(Past 1.30pm - US pre market awake - and so no rally this arbo I'm guessing now.. alas)

mtx110 has a target market size of circa $100m, Mtd201 a target market size of $2bn...

sub 10p to buy here soon maybe: shocking.

I'd begrudgingly do a top up in 9's towards bang for buck of bringing average meaningfully down with not too big a top up..

(Indeed have dumped my smallish remaining holding of Cerp recently and so have some ammo to add here now....would go smallish top up in 9's and double that size top up if goes to 8's .. it can't go into 8's I hear some of you say.. well I hope you're right.. but this is AIM)

sorry just read - some of- bayzils and - all of - jointhedots posts : two more 'macro's' into the pot straight away: TAX and FOREX

As in the answer to the meaning of life, the answer here is infinity

I'm all for the Analysts mid 30's p and upwards valuations here Rhodi and this is the biggest position in my p/f so I'm very much for such valuations, and more :-) But I've also lived the AIM oiler section large for years now and including II's more and more wanting out of the sector generally, to say this is a buyers market would be one seriously punchy understatement :-) ( the agreement of a handful of II's is any potential buyers key goal )

I respect Colonel Drakes analytical skills and am thankful for his detailed/quality posts towards ranges of value here .. but there are so many factors to be considered that valuation has to be very subjective.. for eg $70 vrs $60 average poo thru Oct - and beyond as the case may be - for eg would likely make a negative difference to price(s) offered imho.. and the partnerships that Ameriur already has is a big influncer..... and geopolitics eg any possible rebel tensions in country too.. etc.. etc.. that's just the macro.. then the real fun of micro on top ...such as the valuation of assets/reserves.. etc.. etc.. altogether : factorially hugely subjective.

double good news : very important trial started and first results in about 3 months time
indeed triple good news: the CFO buying lots of shares recently
come on mtph s/p .. wake up now...very please
My history here shows I'm about the most cynical as and amongst the most brutal when it comes to calling this down. Now, towards balance, I offer that I'm very surprised this has not rallied more in recent days. From the very low range its in, to only go from early 5'sp to early 6'sp on recent news is very disappointing.. maybe out US friends will start a party this arbo?? ….hopefully..

I'm still here too Crl123.. indeed haven't sold even the one Trin share either.. thought hard about selling some when reached my b/e of 13p a while back and now wish I had sold at least 25% of my holding here.. oh well :-)

PS great to have you on broad here Silverknight.. very solid fundamentals here imho.. so I see why you get involved.. but without war in middle east - and who wants war - the sector continues to look very messy imho.. so I'd wouldn't put too much in oilers generally if I were you.. but always good stock picking opportunities out there whatever, maybe :-)

Where's the bull Col Drake btw ? And how's that 15p to 20p target looking now Col? ( in case of confusion I do think you're very analytically strong but calling PoO is a game of chance and if you're bullish it when it goes bearish then s/p predictions are going to - at best - struggle .. perhaps your Amerisur predictions ditto.. but you are revising them in context in fairness and I'm still hopeful of 25p plus on that .. but if that lets us down then the read across to even already bombed out other names of quality fundamental oilers is worrying imho )

Good to see you posting ongoingly positively here.. medium term I - kinda - broadly agree .. short term I'm pretty unsure of direction of s/p travel here....but have fingers very crossed .. and am somewhat less unsure with this ongoing stamp of approval !

Ps: by non dilutive raise I'm guessing you mean raise around 6p ish levels George.. To raise 10m gbp soon for eg at 6p - and until recently I was expecting a lot smaller gbp raise but am changing my mind towards larger now - there'd be approx. 170 m new shares issued.. that's approx. 40% additional shares.. and that's dilutive !.. but progressively dilutive versus the co. saving issue earlier this year of very approx 700% more shares issued.. ( as ever happy to stand corrected on the maths , as some from memory ) Also there may well be further raise(s) later in 2020 - if/when next stage approval(s) are hopefully achieved - Id guess..

(Altogether, including big drugs approval, 50p here in 3 years would be an extraordinarily good outcome imho... and i'd guess the chances of reaching that are maybe 1 in 7 ish.. but that would be getting up towards a ten bagger from current s/p.. and on AIM that's not bad odds for such an outcome imho.. i'd be fully sold up long before anything like that anyway so academic to me .. but would be thrilled for the true believers like you George )

With the current 'tricky' forward looking global macro environment and especially with current weak oil prices.. Middle East wars apart, it's very closely tied to global macro, of course - btw how around the corner is that $70 Oil looking now I ask the recent oil bulls here eg ColonelDrake ?- I think it would be a big/very big achievement to get 30p plus p/s for Amerisur now… but the BOD are good dealmakers imho and so here's hoping..

PS; Agree that M&P might well go higher than original offer and if they were to offer in early 20's p and that was the best offer received then I'd very much hope shareholders accept that. That said there seem to be lots of potential suitors beyond them and so I think mid 20's p PLUS is not a stretch target even including aforementioned macro stuff.

Altogether, I'm now somewhat less 'bullish' on price target here than I was a few weeks ago ( and accepted I wasn't bullish by comparison to many here anyway, in fairness)

Stephen stamping his approval by buying more again of these shares I see and so I'm very disappointed that this s/p has not gone further up on Friday and today.. indeed it's actually down this morning so far which is a little shocking to me.. so I sold a small amount towards rounding down my position.. happy to buy back - and more- at a later date if weakness or good news that makes me see good opportunity for short term s/p upside.

fair enough Rob.. but the risks of the next raise being at a very low level s/p are diminishing with every share stephen is stamping his name on imho.... and that raise on the horizon has been the biggest drag on this s/p recently imho.. I'm meaningfully more confident in this share today that I was a week ago for eg

This buying from the CFO continues.. very interesting.. and very good news that Stephen is giving his Stamp of approval here.. surprised there hasn't been more buying by other AIM players off the back of this.. so far at least no but with limited amounts of shares available It doesn't take much to get a decent rally going here.. indeed those out there with a trading strategy of buying into co's where the cfo is actively buying stock should get more involved here now.. Mr Stamp will know the plans for next raise and the fact he's happy to buy this into 6'sp and maybe / hopefully higher is VERY good news imho.. George's call recently on just above 5p being the bottom has a chance of being a very good one.. US players might get involved here this afternoon.. so here's hoping for a meaningful rally today !!

well said Gwyn,, CB is slowly but surely doing a good job here imho

You should have been a professional diplomat wit this Andrew :-)
''you can’t believe all he says all the time''

CB has a dreamer streak to him and while understandable he has such in this game, it does undermine his credibility with many eg He finished that recent update with very bullish language about xtr and the s/p did nothing off the back, alas. And where it looks like this is now heading is meaningfully out of sync with the lowly s/p, seemingly.. but it'll have to show up in the bottom line before many believe.. that's a pity but very understandable in my mind.

Brutal share to be involved with all the same .. the fall here had been monumental and might still have some legs, sadly .. AIM barbarically seems to price most names for failure these days and leaves up to the co to prove it wrong .. it does that because history has shown that many many AIM cos are rubbish but I think this co has a reasonably good chance of disproving the AIM norm .. problem is that just getting back to 2p evennow requires a multi bag here ..sad really ..