RE: Mood Music17 Sep 2019 12:26
I identify a lot with that post Gary o' Brien. Thanks.
(And I'm happy to offer back that 13-15p range on no meaningful asset sale was being generous on my part towards keeping spirits up here.... I wouldn't be at all surprised by 12p for eg, but 40% down from 17 ish p would surprise me reasonably, in fairness...there is/was an offer on the table of 17p after all.. )
Re all the posts here on POO rallying being great news generally: better rally than not of course, and far better rally than fall of course.. but look across your p/f's this week... It's not just Amer that's not rallying on this weeks spike.. far from... and, sadly, I'm not surprised, as when oil went to $80 dollars last year I watched in horror as, even from historically very low bases, the vast majority of oilers s/p's came nowhere - at all - near matching that rally. I'm now thinking that PoO nowadays seems far less an oiler s/p driver than it used be, when PoO is going up anyway; when PoO is going down it still drags many down with it alas: a terrible combination that ! Oiler s/p are now driven far more by the micro imho.. good news on production or drilling, either anticipated or happened for eg... or geographic risk ...or- especially- confidence in management (including of course then having big skin in the game ) ...etc..
Generally, the marco oil picture is a sad one for me; especially including shale, there's simply too much of it in existence across proven and probable in the ground, oil in storage and oil in live production.. etc.. and it being a non renewable resources in these climate change times is a very significant and growing issue vis a vis II and PI investment in the sector too ....and, altogether, that is having and will continue to have an adverse impact on prices achieved, on average, across the sector as a rule imho, be that the average share price or the average co. sale price
(towards having some positive in this post: still big individual winners and loser O&G stocks... so always an opportunity for good/lucky stock pickers imho)