Member Info for NicetoMichu

all your points made seem fair enough to me Kalan..

even an interim trade Deal between US and China in 2020 would be great and would of course help global economy and Poo..

my big concern for poo is supply side far more than demand side though, and there's a Shale output rise, even after another record year in 2019, in q1 2020 especially, hence why OPEC and friends went for the deeper cut and that for 3 months and then see the lie of the land etc.. without their strong action poo brent in q1 could easily have gone towards $55 imho (and EiA's opinion too ) While I very much hope not, I'm still guessing that poo brent will come in decently lower on average in 2020 versus 2019's approx. $65/$66 .. and don't forget 2019 was down from approx $70 average in 2018. ( And why wouldn't Institutional fund managers be mass bearish this sector for 2019 and 2020 if POO goes down year on year )

Granted gas is a big thing for SAVP too and the local market for savp output enjoys higher prices than average for O&G because of it monopolised supplier nature .. another reason why I like this better than many other O&g'ers

shocking fall for this s/p again today.. a few months back I decided to follow this all the way down and so have been topping up regularly into this ongoing demolition.. added another 50,000 shares just now and would continue to add clips of 50,000 every .3p this goes down from here..

how low can it go? no idea and I didn't think 3p in truth ( zero seems extremely unlikely, in fairness ) ( I have 200,000 of these now with an average price in mid 4'sp.. May well get my average decently into 3's at this rate .. and just hope at some point it comes back from such awful levels. even with very bad possible awful Argentina macro unfold, 3p seems very harsh here imho .. but it is what it is and can of course go lower.. sadly.. but it can rise too of course and very hopefully

Very thankful for todays clarity on how good an acquisition this is.

For this s/p to be at 22p/23p still based on all this is frightening/horrible. But am I surprised, no; saddened yes and but not surprised. But I still have high - for me - hopes here and would be very pleased indeed for this to reach 40p in 2020 (and pleased with 35p and not unhappy with 30p)

I like Malcay and did well by his tips in 2016 and 2017 but have long since stopped following/ listening to him. Like many - and me to an extent but less so as we go - he is living in the past in term of the valuations metrics he uses and end valuations he anticipates for all the O&g'ers he covers imho, sadly. Nett of this, his predictions have been awful in the last two years now. ( believe me each breath of mine would love the old paradigm versus this brutal new one.. and of course the paradigm could change better back, at least somewhat in the future, but it may not, and it could worsen further eg global recession/stock market crash etc scenario )

PS ; thinking I'd better post something positive towards being less disliked here.

FM's are very samsey - never get fired for doing what the other guys do etc - and so their money 'herds' - aka clustering - .. it herds out, which we're witnessing now imho.. and it herds back in at some stage, hopefully .. so if one or two of them of them are thinking of getting back into an AIM sector for eg it gets discussed with peers and if it is to happen it happens widely.. so before you know it there can be a big inflow.. when the worm it's often a meaningful turn.. so there's always hope of a big turnaround when one eventually comes.. and the lower the s/p's in this sector go on average the more likely such an inflow becomes etc.. and in the interim there's always low ball offers at 50% premium too.. so there's always hope.. granted it can be the hope that kills you :-)

Ps; markets can remain irrational longer than plenty of investors remain liquid too..etc.. Keynes

When you say you don't think II money is leaving the sector Luckcounts, I offer back to you that it often occurs in a lot more subtle ways than short term selling of their stakes. eg Michinoko wanted out of the sector and was likely a direct contributor to the low ball Amerisur offer being recommended by the board ( and likely accepted by enough shareholders in the end ) Michinoko could not sell down when Amerisur s/p was already in deep decline pre M&P bid as it could easily have crashed the s/p even massively further again.

Generally, for II's to get out of these AIM oilers is extremely hard as there's so little liquidity that any sort of even semi meaningful sells on the open market would completely decimate already awful s/p's.. so they can small drip feed sell ongoingly at very most, with the effect of bringing down the s/p's incrementally all the while, thus more and more encouraging a 'low ball offer' - that will still be at a half decent premium to recent history s/p chart - and let it be known to the brokers/bankers quietly that they are open to a bid from a relevant industry player for co x that will still represent compelling value to that bidder. It's their only real way out without their investments getting completely obliterated. And when their out many won't be back in the sector with the proceeds or will be back with a proportion of proceeds only, thus II money leaving the sector.

In the old days when large block II sellers wanted out there was another II in the wings who would take up the s/p at a reasonable discount but not a disastrous one on a scheme of things. There are fewer and fewer II's wanting involvement even at reasonable discounts to already bombed out s/p's now and so more and more low ball company sales are the only way out for existing II's getting out without complete capitulation of their Investment in the current environment. imho

fine posting luck counts.. plenty of valid points therein..
a few back:
plenty of reserves here offshore which is generally plenty more expensive to develop than onshore and so worth less
government not industry friendly here eg SPT
a tired and fragmented small player scene here versus large dynamic hungry to acquire players in for eg Columbia
management here have a lot to do still to prove themselves to actually be good versus genuinely top industry management imho
the current s/p has a direct/large impact on any bid that might be received eg 8.5p to 14p here versus 10p to 19p with Amerisur for eg

As bullish/exuberant as some of the 'rampers' might be here this afternoon, versus the 450p long term view I've previously read posted and heavily backed up with dreamy posting here, they're harmless ?

Fine post Spiderman. Thanks and Merry Christmas to you.

PS : when you say you had much money in the past and now don't; did you start playing AIM in the intervening period?

How to end up with 1 million pounds from playing AIM ? Start with 5 million pounds !!
:-)

As cynical as playing this game more and more makes me, I'll still admit to being shocked that this has come off from 10p to 8.5p very recently.

OPEC and friends delivered well on output cuts recently and PoO is up recently off the back and yet look at this s/p ( and plenty of other AIM O&G'ers too in fairness.. that's the real killer for me , even when poo goes up these s/p's often don't or if they do it's far from proportionally up and sometimes its down in rising poo even .. yet when poo goes down they generally fall overly proportionally.. a very frightening combination that, imho)

The primary underlying driver is II money continuing to slowly but surely leave the sector imho... and I would say that situation has gotten worse instead of better in 2019. And It's plenty to do with macro factors, the green lobby/ bearish poo and a big lack of trust in AIM O&G execs generally to deliver what they say they will. There is merit in all these viewpoints imho.

The first thing management here can do is deliver on y/e exit rate targets. Their delivery this year has been poor in the first 9 months imho, so here's hoping for that to change this quarter. Then they need to bat very clever with their cash in bank.. and that's either a merger or acquisition or production grow out that is clearly very quickly bottom line accreditive. Or better again, given the way the market doesn't care much about the afore is good size share buyback or dividend alongside a solid but not significant -eg 10% - production grow out in 2020 that is visibly easily/inexpensively repeatable in 2021 too

PS: If someone wants to buy Trin.l for 14p + then fine by me as for the s/p to get back to that level in 2020 on its own might well altogether- ie macro and micro factors - be a big/very big ask imho.

instead of a raise could they not do a sale or licencing/JV etc arrangement in short order rhodi?

my gut tells me the big down gaping so far this morning is an overaction too but my gut is wrong sometimes, in fairness... bet has now gone for gbp 3k to 6.5k bet here this morning.. and to very close to halving my average price to 15p .. so here's hoping.. ( bought tranches many where's from 13p to 9p...I'm open to a top up or three more but only if this goes to 8p and 7p etc.... very hopefully it doesnt, but who really knows... )

my position was small to begin with, in fairness.. so for a few grand more might as well be hung for sheep as a lamb..if I am to be hung
ps 450p looking a bit trickier now Ananda?

or foolish..not sure either way ... so just doubled my no of shares here for a small outlay.. would add more on any further weakness.. get my average way down..and hope for the best going forward.. I saw comedy and hope in equal measure in that RNS

Fine posting today gentlemen imho. Thank you and here's very much HOPING.

Words of the day imho:

''My nick is a combo of 2 posters who for many years used to go to all the AGMs that Pricket & Humps presided over (albeit with PGD) and they endlessly ramped 100s of posts on various BBs which ended up misleading many on the pretence they had the 'ear' of the dynamic duo. They are of course nowhere to be seen these days. Probably too embarrassed to post given all the ramping ***** they used to spout. And how many have lost their shirts in the process.''

Urban racer is absolutely not in this category but there are plenty across these BB's who are..and, sadly, lots of people have lost lots of money here and widely elsewhere on the AIM cesspit, but nobody is making us play, and we get to pick whichever stocks we like most and can sell whenever. (AIM plays are gambling, and hardcore gambling at that, imho..)

My guess is another raise in Q1.. my hope is a sale of the co./asset(s) asap. (asap can be of course translate to 'in due course')

this is very good news .. and I'm surprised that the s/p has not quickly rallied at least well into mid to late 3'sp and stayed there.

At such low s/p levels I'm disappointed there is a meaningful seller into this afternoons buying..

(ps: I'm guessing that Armistice LLC holding RNS of this morning is internal transfers from their Master Fund to other funds of theirs instead of selling down a lot of what they took from recent raise participation?)

Thanks cautionyourblast and thanks Gibbo. And, CyB, I appreciate you do exactly what it says on the tin in terms of your unsername and post content matching up. And looking forward to hearing from you over on PPC.. (Another very tough journey that one.. but the posters there are, on average, more humble than I witnessed here, imho... but a low average there will see most ok in the end there I guess too)

I've sold out my final tranche here today.

I started buying at 28p a fair few years ago and including much averaging down it has been a hard and annoying journey, to the extent that I grew to dislike this share significantly.

In that context, while I feel this offer is a very poor one, I'm still happy to walk away with an overall 30% profit.

I expect I'll talk to some of you on other boards here in the future.

(ps: while generally looking to reduce my oiler expose decently in the near term, I have added some of the proceeds from here onto my SAVP and TRIN and PPC bets.... in hope as much as expectation, granted )

While it’s often the hope that kills you in co’s such as this, here’s to the hope that Solar Winds can help this company move to cash b/e in 2020 !

Generally, Turnover is increasing decently here and that always gives you a chance, at least.

Well called again - and for the umpteenth time too- here falling knife. And Noel can be pleased that, at very least, the short term view of selling out here at the levels he did was a good play. (And of course the medium term from here could be further bad too.. but hopefully not )

I'm disappointed and surprised that loss widened in the first half, especially into decently improving revenues.. and clearly the market is too. Although one caveat, if I may, is that more colour on the future potential off the back of extra monies - eg 300k - spent in this quarter may give those who attend the AGM today a more positive view/spin on things forward from here. ( it may not either and this can of course go further down from here too)

Fool that I could easily be, I still see a decent chance of progress from here forward - Solar Winds being important to that - though and did a small top up at 1.40p this morning. If it's good money after bad then so be it, as some you win and some you lose and some you draw in the nature of the game I play.

As I have said all along this share is for hard core gamblers- like myself - imho and those who bet on it should be prepared to lose much or even all of their bet

and maybe even the month:

''without intelligent speculation this board would be like a balcony with no muppets''

A gem from Blahblahdoo imho. Thank You !

Ps: This share has been good to me twice now through buy low sell higher trading and my current bet here is a still only a smallish one at 13p average and given what I read, from on average excellent posters imho, on this BB I'm, altogether, very tempted to add to this bet and would absolutely do so in short order if it brought my average down. But the brutality of AIM has had me adopt a mantra of only add if you're averaging down. But if this doesn't go down this week I'll admit to being sorely tempted to break my rule next week.