Member Info for NicetoMichu

It was small to medium chance of this s/p ever getting back to the 10-15p per share range I was trying to say Viveka.. that assumed MTD201 gets to market.. I'd GUESS a medium or slightly better chance of that (if it doesn't I'd guess s/p of very close to zero)

Don't think they get loans against drug(s) in trial ? So further raises in some shape or form nailed on I'm assuming.. from whatever sources at whatever s/p.. maybe JV /licencing with cash paid up front towards funding trials.. but that still involves shares being issued for that investment? ( like the Chinese investors arrangement )

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and anything can happen.. eg Novartis of whoever could buy this for 30p in the morning.

ps managements first thought is themselves and then their staff (and then their shareholders).. they'll all take their salaries out of here for x years to come as long as they can get the raises away to pay them .. however many shares being issued at whatever that entails.

A big learning for me from playing the AIM game: Always place bets only on AIM co's where management have huge -shares - skin in the game from coming to market stage

agreed silver knight - or just see it as a donation instead of an investment now - and fair play Viveka for being so open minded and honest .. instead of trying to shut me down and dismiss me as many long here would no doubt be happy to see happen.

Instead of answering you questions one by one - and the answers could make some sadder/angrier again, as I'm actually holding back on being completely brutal on what could easily happen here.. but doesn't have to as anything can of course happen - I'm just going to make some general observations:

The narrative on raises at lower and lower figures here has GOT to change asap or else it'll likely end up a car crash - I use car crash instead of train wreck granted - not least as the amounts of money required for next stage trails may well be larger than required for previous trials and the s/p is extremely low now and could easily go much lower into big raises at ever decreasing figures from last 3.9p ish raise(s) .. etc .. and the warrants on top at low prices are nightmares too.. and the Chinese cab easily say why are the latest American raise getting these at - from memory - 5ish p ? and us at way way higher previously when we saved the co.. and a race to the bottom ensues..

so raising large tranche(s) at 3.9p or above for eg would be great

or a buy out by a larger player around this time might well be an optimal outcome, even if the price was in mid to high single pence figures.. I hope management are open to /pushing for any such options ( they're probably 'deluded' on the value of the co. here though and so absolutely aren't ) CMS and A&B are concert parties and so assume one in the same already hold 44% between them .. they could buy out the Woodford shares not far from current s/p levels i'd guess and then offer the remaining shareholders a strong premium price to market value around that time. ( or even include woodford shares in that offer.. the current total market cap is less than gbp £15 m and they already hold 44% of shares so absolute peanuts for them whatever )

Some might wonder why there hasn't been a bid already.. well they see the way the s/p is - bar a few short lived spikes - continually falling and see the raises still required so why be in any hurry :-(

dnd writes: ''Most of bagr orders in Vietnam are China so will hit hard''

But if the orders are from International retailers to Chinese manufacturers, and international demand remains broadly unaffected by Coronavirus, then those International retailers still need the product asap and as many Chinese clothes factories are shut those orders are backlogging and so some orders - maybe not current but future ones as the factories will be catching up current ones when back on line -to be passed on to Vietnam factories.. ( or Egypt or Ethiopia factories) eg Bagir's ?

Also I'm actually reasonably hopefully that the result in a few weeks time will be further progressive

I agree Viveka that there is maybe/potentially a good company here still .. and 10 to 15p could still be a possibility here if things come good here, ( maybe/hopefully … and overall chance of that small/medium imho.. dyor ..etc)

Alas, the workings of AIM are catastrophic here and generally for long term investing.. absolutely liquidity crisis abound on AIM .. over time even a small imbalance of selling over buying crashes prices and the next raise happens at a discount to the ever - strongly - declining s/p ..etc for the next raise(s) again .. so a downward spiral is often nailed on ..

eg by say early/mid 2021 I reckon there could be around 20 times more shares in circulation here than there was in 2018. That's awful for the maximum s/p that could feasibly be achieved here in the future, even with drugs/delivery technology successfully brought to market

Aside: AIM is effectively an active traders market only now imho.. having embraced that in recent years and done ok ish off the back I still say it's a cesspit that should be steered clear of and to re-enforce that statement I offer that my biggest current worry from betting on AIM is a macro one: when there's a market correction in US markets, AIM shares - no matter how low on average they are - will, on average, get smashed again purely on margin calls/stop outs/flights to safety versus buying further drying up out of of fear.

good posts Kalan,

US shale O&G has indeed been the elephant in the room and the primary driver - by far - of this new paradigm.. but we're getting close to peak US shale O&G imho.. so that gives me some hope.

The kicker for me is that there are factorially huge amounts more O&G in the earth/ocean than we thought there was even 10 years ago. Obviously extraction costs, demand, environmental concerns etc will mean that much of that will not be commercialised but always be concerned when there is huge supply of a commodity available eg Diamonds

Agree with you Andrew..

nb : Manica 'Ard rock go live needs to hurry up not slow down ( even the easy to get at stuff asap would be great ) And gwyn says something revenuey coppery could also crop up quickly(ish) etc..

Ps; forget .90 as - for three small size tranches - I was selling at .93/.94 ! :-) I've always wanted to get my average here under 1p.. was as low as 1.05-1.10 range and bought some higher and pushed my average back to 1.15p :-(.. If I buy back a decent bunch around .8p then bob would be my uncle in that goal ..and buying in the .7's p, f+nny my aunt too :-)

Good to see you banging the drum here Kalan.. much needed, in fairness :-)

I'm disappointed but philosophical here and accept that my bet was too big here, whatever.. but you don't realise a loss or gain until you sell.. and que sera sera on my journey here..

Generally, my guess is very very few involved in this share have made money, so far... the bond holders were distressed sellers and the shares they dump here are, in their total involvement in the and taken over co('s) , at a loss, I'd guess..

ps: my gut also says that further bondholder share selling is a meaningful factor in the recent awful s/p performance here.. but my gut is often wrong, in fairness :-)

finally, for a balanced poster that you usually are, a bit shy on negatives versus positives on this post perhaps Kalan :-):
eg
the sector is very - very - out of favour
its Nigeria (Niger)
PoO&G are very low currently and, even after this Coronavirus is controlled, there is far more supply than demand generally in the World for both O&G ( eg Tullow have recently revised their medium term average price forecast for Brent down from $75 to $65 .. and I stand by my previous prediction here that in and around $60 as the Brent average this year.. and for what little it's worth, i'd go $60-$65 range for Brent for the medium term.. )
Environmentally - and socially - conscience II and PI Investing is growing significantly as we go
etc

was expecting last Q alluvials update this week, indeed early this week.. my guess is that if they were good or decent we'd have them by now. So I'm going to guess at bad and have sold a quarter of my holding thru this week - at a small loss - towards maybe/hopefully buying back lower IF this s/p goes lower. Also my guess is 'Ard Rock Manica project not going as quickly as I'd expected either. So scratch my previous recent post about me being short term bullish if CE is short term bearish... I'm short term bearish here -too? - now.. but wtfdik, and this s/p could of course go up too in the short term.. other gold stocks have rallied very well recently and this doggy has fallen even and it has a tiny market cap so shouldn't take much at all to rally.. etc..

You're the poster I rate most highly here Brasso, but on a point of order, if I may: when you say ''PL told us 5 weeks ago that 2019 average production was 2600 BOEPD and not we learn that in fact it was 2414 BOEPD!''

Are you referring to his letter to shareholders welcoming the new decade that you kindly linked to here at end Dec? Or perhaps you're referring to some other comments of his ? ( if yes what are they for my info. )

In that letter I find:

''We published projections for average Group production in 2019 of 2,600 boepd (barrels of oil and gas equivalent) increasing in 2020 in the range 4,000-5,000 barrels boepd''

Projections and actuals are, of course, different things. So any though of him lying to us based on that would be off the mark ?

(Altogether, I rate the guy and think there's a good possibility that 2020 might be that company transformational year we've been long - and painfully - waiting for.. and not only would I be very disappointed if he did lie to us in such an blatant way, it would also undermine his credibility on a likely very robust 2020 for PPC in my mind and influence my sell target price here)

''It's the greed that drives us though - buying the shares that pay dividend before they start to pay them - big gains if you can do that.''

Indeed Kalan, indeed... but we need the AIM O&G Co. Execs to play the game: when they are in a position to comfortably pay a dividend- and or do share buybacks - they should do so. But many have no intention as they want to spend any accumulated 'war chest' on growing the business.

Generally, very few AIM O&G'ers are in a potential dividend paying position, in farness - indeed most as your article points out eventually end up as failing/failed co's- but, fo eg, Amerisur were in a position to pay a dividend for a fair few years and had no interest in doing so and Trinity could easily pay a dividend this year or next but it is becoming clearer by the update that they have no intention of doing so. (and both those s/p sure as h*ll needed the help of a dividend and /or share buyback.. and the final sell out value for Amerisur was poor to awful imho)

Too early to tell here as we need to see how profitable/cash flow generative this business truly is in 2020 at least .. also there are other potential short term s/p drivers here ahead of dividends maybe occurring eg good Niger farm out.. and P&L and free cash actually being as good as many are hoping for.. and profitably growing industrial customer base in 2020 ..etc..

agreed George and thanks for the inspiring post Viveka.

(for many, money 'invested' here may well be an investment in mitigating human suffering, along the lines of a donation, more than an investment in a financial returns sense.. whether they started out with that intention or not.. I've understood this for at least 2 years now but did not start out with that intention, in truth)

Interesting post SQ320 and tournasol.

There was a poster called 'stockable' who posted very well -imho - towards taking the below debate a step or more further and I tried bouncing some thoughts off him on the Trinity board and indeed on a few other boards too. Long story short(ish):

Without Dividends - share buybacks to some extent too granted - shareholders bear front loaded risk towards hopefully good future business sale value realising them gains, be those gains via SP appreciation along the road in anticipation or potential future sale price for of all or part(s) of the business or actual sale price achieved if/when a sale of all or part(s) of the business happens. But company executives take large salaries- and free shares/options. pension contributions etc - along the same road towards realising gains ongoingly, as well as whatever they make if any sell out occurs - either via their shares/options of payoff in wide shapes or forms , eg a big job in the buying co. or golden goodbye payment etc..

Until a few years back the AIM O&G current s/p took decent consideration of future business growth via valuing 3P reserves and sundry other non short term P&L/cashflow achievements decently; but - sadly - that's changed hugely in recent years - maybe as a blip or maybe for good - towards the value of such AIM co's being far more about short term P&L/ cash flow and also debt now being much less palatable than it used be and far - far - less about reserves etc .. and this new paradigm all towards looking for minimized capital raise situations and maximised dividend and or share back situations asap ahead of any future business sale.

But most all AIM O&G executives remain stubbornly saying, instead of prioritising paying dividends and/or doing share buybacks asap, we stick with the grow and then sell out model that AIM 'is all about'.. of course they are saying this, as it's easy for them to say this as they and their employees are getting well rewarded in sundry ways along the journey while the 'low(er) priority' shareholders are left hoping that, eventually, they'll make a good return.. but that's less and less likely as AIM O&G share prices get hammered so easily along the journey these years.. especially including dilution via larger and larger no's of shares issued for smaller and smaller amounts of cash raised accelerating hugely the s/p fall/spiral, and it further exacerbated by anticipated more soon again required next raises ...etc ..

Last I heard from 'Stockable' was he was giving up on the old game towards moving to dividend paying stocks investing only.

very good RNS.. saddens me but doesn't surprise me that this s/p hasn't gone up this morning.. AIM O&G remains an extremely unloved sector.. and recent big fall in O&G prices obviously doesn't help either ( over supply from US shale O&G and this coronavirus threat to demand an awful combination )
I stay long and strong here and have meaningful to high hopes for a strong /very strong 2020 from PPC and this dragging - kicking and screaming - the s/p up to 7p + this year .. HOPEFULLY and DYOR.

MM's are tricky MF's

This a very good macro gold environment for Lnd to get some sort of seriously s/p accreditive deal over the line.. so thinking of adding a little more to my pot here in Feb.. come on, Lnd, don't let us down this time.. please get a bl**dy deal done asap... please!!!!

even in this currently strongly - massively even? - out of favour AIM sector, this share price is just a lot too low versus the assets and near/medium revenue opportunities from these asset now imho.. with this Coronaviurus, it has been recently tricky for markets and PoO&G especially - US latest shale O&G supply growth an issue with latter too of course - so not a good day for the market to react positively to this strong RNS granted

I agree sutekhssocks and I did expect a rally off the back of this mornings excellent RNS. I still do in truth.. but if not today in February instead hopefully and in the months after that to come hopefully too, as I expect at least a decent amount of good news to flow here in 2020 and indeed in 2021

If the biggest bear on this bulletin board is predicting 60p then surely that's a conservative number ? :-)
The chances of 6p in 2020 are slim/very slim/extremely slim imho.. so 60p might be a stretch :-)

AIM Oilers aren't trendy is an understatement imho.. it's a brutal space to play long in in recent times I'd offer and this recent fall in PoO has been very punchy indeed and so I'm not surprised this has now been dragged down decently, and could, sadly, be dragged down further again.. but hopefully not for long suffering longs here, and me to an extent too.

(By increment, I've now bailed out of just over half my position here - in the 10.25p to 13 p range over recent/relatively recent times.. an average of low 11'sp allowed me do this at be/small profit and I'd use some - only - of the proceeds to add back incrementally on any further weakness from here .. I'd be a keen buyer anywhere in the 8'sp for eg .. it's all about getting as low an average as possible for me in this sector and active trading alongside buy and hold is the game I've more and more had to play in a very trying AIM O&G space )