Member Info for NicetoMichu

the post consolidation level equivalent to 'old money' 3.9 ish p, I should have said

(and btw I do understand that s/p's often tick down post consolidation ' as a rule' .. but not always .. every situation is unique )

Who is going to give them a loan at 4% George, or even at a lot higher interest rate?

They don't have revenue generating assets at this time to act as collateral for a loan and while they may have in the future, also they may not/never have.

As has already occurred from get go here, all monies they raise going forward will be for a share of the company... and that's a big bet by whoever that meaningful future revenues will occur here, or a buy out at a good premium will occur ahead of those revenues occurring.

My big hope here is that II's stop this race to the bottom now and do a next raise at no lower than recent 3.9 ish p's , as they see it in their long term interest to do this. And that it's for a many many millions towards hopefully getting something to market off the back.

If a big raise at that level then future funding to market broadly sorted - or at least to a next serious value inflection point - and a strong relief rally follows to push this higher than that raise price.. and then good news going forward pushes higher again etc..

(But my guess is next raise will within 8 weeks and at a level somewhere meaningfully lower than 3.9 ish p .. between 2p and 3p for eg.. and will have very lowly priced warrants attached too)

It would be lovely of it worked like that George. It absolutely and categorically doesn't, unfortunately.

While you make plenty of good macro points here crl123, I don't get the importance you continually attach to the lack of marketing by Trin?

II money is key to Trin and other oilers and II's are widely plenty aware of Trin already of their own volition?

If it's PI marketing you're thinking about :
PI's are less important s/p drivers by far, and growing further less as we go, as PI involvement in this sector these years decreases ongoingly ..and that's for understandable non Trin specific reasons imho...eg clearly too much O&G in the World versus even growing demand eg Shale on top of trillions of barrels conventional reserves/ new discoveries .. SPT in this jurisdiction.. 'environmentally conscience investing'.. etc.)

My view: They've 'simply ' got to make the company more investable in the now.. given their cash position, pay a dividend is an obvious answer.. they could do this if they wanted to, pretty easily. (not least as developing off shore will need a bigger partner involvement anyway)

There seems to be a clearly required change of thinking by directors here; building out production and bottom line only slowly and incrementally needs to be done on a very tight budget and the company needs to focus on boosting the s/p with remaining surplus cash.. Also, additional large directors buys are required asap here too.. if this s/p is ridiculously low now then prove you believe that buying a BUNCH more Trin shares on the open market asap Mr Directors..

8p would be great and, by the laws of averages, you're certainly now overdue a good s/p shout here zahirmiah :-)

(I'd be thrilled if this moved up past 4p btw.. I guess it won't.. but would love to be utterly wrong in that guess)

I'm back involved again here now and slowly building out a position here .. ran for cover a few years back and got out relatively unscathed.. I'm hoping this time around is a profitable involvement and maybe even strongly so .. I think there's a decent chance the company has now completely sorted itself out, including the Indian business, at last, about now starting making meaningful contributions here.. as ever in this game.. place your bets or not and hope for the best.. I have and here's hoping and good luck to all fellow longs here

a takeover asap here would now definitely be my preferred occurrence....

..with a market cap of between 10 and 15m gbp currently .. and significant expenditure still required to get drugs/delivery technologies to market... 30 or 40 m gbp takeover in next few months would be one hell of a result imho.. ( 7 to 10 p range ) and I'd be thrilled with that .. I'd be happy with 5p-6p in truth...

Of if they could do a big raise around the previous levels of 3.9 ish p I'd be very pleased at that.

My guess is no takeover and a raise in the 2 to 3p range is - much - more likely, alas.

great posting widely here recently... thanks

Brasso has been and is still the top poster here imho.. he lives in the real world:

PPC have being appalling at delivering to targets and have diluted the a*s out of this share over the years.. and that has contributed plenty to the utterly abject/disgraceful s/p performance here over many years now.

But the s/p is low to very low now imho, not least versus what could readily be delivered this year.. even if they only deliver half of what they hope for I still think this could readily enough go to 5p plus.. but there are lots of macro factors in play here too and they could go from bad to worse of course.. and that would have an adverse effect etc..

but in no way shocking to me.. a good company though imho but there's just a lot of macro stuff that continues effecting it and its peers badly ..

I guess I should start thinking about topping up towards bringing down my average but I don't feel any sort of rush or enthusiasm to do so.. but the good fundamentals here though do appeal to me to be buying in 8/9p range

.. that said, while it seems a low/very low share price now, I guess it can as easily go lower still as higher, or certainly meaningfully higher anyway... but I'd defo add a tranche - back - here around 8.5 p and would add more if further weakness again from there..

(as I still have a small/medium position here and I'm also aware that there are many long suffering holders here I genuinely hope it goes up from 9p as opposed to further down..)

So next equity raise here is pretty likely coming in March/April imho and it might be a big size one.. again, the crucial thing is the price the raise is set at - and the price any warrants associated are set at to an extent too - and any further s/p weakness from here via low conviction holders leaving here might be far from ideal in the setting of the upcoming raise price.. again, if its current market price less x% then that could potentially be a very 'unfortunately' low latest raise price, and I'd be for a small/medium raise then towards some meaningfully good news (?) in 2020 raising the s/p and allowing a further raise(s) at a higher price later this year.

Altogether, I currently have £4k only in this and while I've recently occasionally though my latest average price - 3.4p - was relatively decent, I'm more and more thinking I'd probably be better off with less bet here and an average decently in the 2's p to boot .... I might add a small bit extra here if this s/p tanks from current apppox 2.75p ahead of AGM ….but I clearly now understand whatever my total bet here is, is - at least- as much a potential donation to a good cause as potential a money making bet.

I hear you/agree Kalan and nice one emailing Jimmy Nen

Be careful there Nen.. you may be scratching the surface of a whole world of complication
I'm not interested in even trying to investigate such here myself - I've tried similar with other stocks I hold for eg around Woodford holding across his funds for mtph and the more I drilled the more complicated /wooly it got.. including, there, large amounts of regular back and forth inter funds transfers there towards maybe creating smoke and mirrors ...and I realised how farcical the games that are played can be.. etc.. - but 'Miton' ( btw now merged into Premier Miton with one of the merger views being to move some funds away from Miton's large AIM focus to more geographic/ asset class diversification that Premier was stronger at .. so most selling of AIM stocks is likely not company specific concern orientated … and there has been a fair few sell downs too.... ) could easily be holding any SAVP holding in more than the one fund - ie more than smaller companies B - to begin with ?.. or some derivation of such a theme eg Transferred some into one / some of the Premier Funds as part of the merger funds reshaping ...etc.. ?

I'm all for balance away from fan club members only posts on BB's and respect fully negativity being posted here - the s/p has fallen off multiple cliffs one after the other so why not - but I do think your posting is progressing from reasoned negativity towards more and more wildly/outrageously deramping wass_mo. I'm quick to call out uber ramaping when I see it - as most dangerous thing to peoples wealth in this AIM game imho - and so feel I should equivalently quickly call out uber deramping: I'm now seeing your posts as moving from the usefully negative to the uselessly rubbish wass..

Thanks for making me laugh guys .. Gixxer's gets top marks from me...

This time next year we'll be Millionaires ….You know it makes sense Rodney!

not only have you excellent content but you are a very balanced and honest poster imho Viveka. ( Top class poster altogether)

Thanks for posting this and a real shame these guys didn't complete on this. Hopefully someone else buys his Midatech holding in whole off market with a view to medium / longterm holding .. (Even selling a tranche of these by slow increment on market is just not feasible imho... it wouldn't just crash the s/p, not even decimate it, it would obliterate it imho )

''Having said that, I doubt the MC will be at this level for very much longer...''

Are you thinking higher or lower CE ?

much appreciated guys
PS: accepting local gas pricing, is there also a main European Gas Price Benchmark? (if Henry Hub is US gas related only)
Thanks
Michu

seems very important here and while I know Price of Oil well I have limited knowledge of sourcing relevant gas prices.

I simply use the Henry Hub natural gas futures prices - usually via BBC Market data - as a proxy. Can someone help me use something more relevant, if appropriate, please?

If that is an appropriate benchmark, I note that the current Price:
dollars per million BTU ($/MMBtu) 1.85
seems appallingly price.. indeed on a 5 year chart its back at the levels of the dark 2015/2016 days.. and also has fallen extremely sharply even in the last year odd ( ie 50% plus type stuff.. )

So this s/p price currently being very poor in that context is understandable ?

(I have downsized from a medium to keep a small holding here I am determined to stay with this share and retain high(ish) hopes for this share.. one day .. I think.. )

The AGM resolution passed was:

''Transaction Bonus: USD 100,000, upon completion of the Ruyi transaction or any other change of control;''

So DND is right.

And all these shares finding new homes at such low prices means any low ball offer has a clear chance of succeeding imho.

Generally, Bagir is extraordinarily difficult share to be long, indeed I play a lot of AIM names and the approx. 8 months of ongoing drip selling to obliterate this s/p by steady increment is fairly unique in my experience .. sure I've seen swift AIM share collapses regularly.. but against a backdrop of a company that seems to have steadied the ship and maybe even turning itself around slowly and with a large buyer hoovering up shares in the wings all the time, for this share price to have been so decimated by ongoing increment is strange/worrying indeed.

Ps: At this stage an offer in or around 1p even would be almost palatable to me .. for closure and move on.. bitterly granted.

useful real world thread here recently .. thanks all.. clearly this could be a - nother- tricky year for xtr.. but you never know anything in this game for even near sure.. and 'low hanging' 'ard rock may be able to be worked on in some shape or form to get some revenue coming in ahead of that CIL completion. Also Alluvials extraction may run for longer than first estimated and low hanging copper revenue may kick in in coming months too.

But, given the history here, my instinct is in line with James that there is a good chance a raise might be required here sometime this year.. (So I've just dumped another tranche of my holding here and altogether now am 40% lighter in my holding here than I was at the beginning of 2020.. open to buying back some/ plenty at ' the right price' of course .. but great if good news comes here asap and the s/p goes up as I still have a half decent holding here.. and long suffering longs have suffered far too long here already )