Member Info for NicetoMichu

Thanks Andy and indeed on RNS announcement would be made if guarantee invoked.. and no announcement was made..

There's a lot of panic about currently so I develop thicker skin and hope for the best. Indeed, I did a small amount of averaging down today and have a plan that I will do growing more such into any further weakness from here.. hopefully little if any of that obviously.. but that's in the hands of others (ie I haven't sold any and indeed have small added)

Aside :

I'm not in the habit at all of quoting Mr Trump at all, but I do identify strongly with this one:

''So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!''

the Cable Article I read is from early Dec 2019 and based on non payment of bills in periods prior to that Andy.. Is that what you are referring to ? Great if content of article not true obviously but, whatever, that article has been in the public domain for months now ... so it being a major driver of s/p meltdown in recent days is surprising to me?

I'd sold down a bit here recently... and I 'panic' sold again first thing.. so only a token holding left here now.. be that for better or worse I have no idea.

This could easily be a truly brutal up to 6 months - I'd guess, but hopefully less - for the sector so be very careful.

That said this company is in a very strong position with low b/e and large cash in bank ./ no debt .. well run .. good hedging etc..

I'd add back here if some new OPEC + outputs cuts agreement gets done whenever.. but until then the carnage could multiply generally and many sector co's, especially US shalers, collapse.

I'll likely not be posting much here for a few months I guess .. so good luck to all remaining here in their journey. ( some fine posters on this BB and well a spirited board too.. thanks )

agreed older and wiser.. but Saudi's have a young egotistical leader with still relatively very deep pockets..so this price war could run for a fair few months, easily..

PS: a lot of US shale co's are carrying unsustainable debt at $50 WTI .. mid 30's for even a few months will be carnage there especially.. Putin and indeed Saudi's well aware of this...so double whammy for Putin and half a whammy - with a medium term view - to the Saudi's.

PS: I'm wondering if US will agree to get involved in any next OPEC + cuts agreement.. that may well be clearly in all parties interest this next time round..

For those looking for some hope:

I copy this post from Fernan on PMO board earlier ( ps I'm not been in PMO for a year plus now and may well not be back in it but I did that averaging down journey with them in an awful approx. early 2016 - worse than SAVP now- and came out the other end way up overall.. every journey is different and luck plays a big part of course .. but I very much hope to repeat similar here )
…………………………………………………………………………………...
Good morning..

According to IMF, Saudi Arabia requires an average oil price of US$ 83 per barrel to get fiscal break even

Source:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-output-breakingviews/breakingviews-saudi-sets-global-oil-a-stress-test-few-wil/bl-pass-idUSKBN20W18L

At a Brent price of US$ 33/b, and production of 10 millon barrels per day, they are losing US$ 500 million per day, or US$ 184 bn per annum

Their foreign exchange reserves in January were US$ 490,6 bn
Source:
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/saudi-arabia/foreign-exchange-reserves

Of course they have plenty of running room to issue more debt.

But history shows that this price war could not last more than a few months.
In the last 40 years, after initiating a price war, Saudis and their OPEC peers have always came to the negociation table to make a new output cut deal.

Why follow the Italy example? They have one of the oldest populations around - and the average age of those dying is around 80 there I think - and were caught out by an early and quick spread in a European sense. (and it's focused only in the Northern region of Italy in their cold weather period)

The US are far more resilient too... not least as large numbers without healthcare plan will never be tested and just lie low and hope to come out the other side ok.... and the vast majority will quickly and easily.. eg mild in 80+ per cent who get it.

Spring is coming .. you can feel it in the temperature and that's a big help.

And Look at your last 50 years history of such illnesses generally .. include BSE etc.. as a rule they don't turn out nearly as bad as first feared.

This will turn out to have been overhyped in UK and Ireland etc, I firmly believe.

I'm bearish on corona virus effect on global economy but not as bearish as that Kalan.. many people in developing world will get mild symptoms and will never even be tested .. so mortality rates are way lower than headlines off the back of such I offer .. and the western world will cope far better because it has better medical care.. also spring weather will help as virus season peters out from Spring. Also low O&G prices are a driver of economic growth generally.. that will help the bounce back when it starts (it's already started in china, I offer)

Generally, FTSE not going under 5250 is my guess and DOW not under 17500

AIM O&G might be another story in terms of misery levels granted as a race to the bottom in term of PoO to kill off more expensive and/or debt laden supply may well be truly awful.

I've dumped other oilers today to average down meaningfully here in due course.. my latest plan for what little its worth: small top only in 7's p and incrementally bigger if/as this goes lower. This could go as low as 5p region I now guess.. but I very much hope it doesn't.

Awful day in markets today.. and especially awful for O&G.. very sad.

I'm sold out of my remaining fairly small position here now so best wishes to all here.. especially Brasso.. I might be back in in summer.. depending on coronavirus dying out and OPEC+ - maybe even including US very hopefully - global supply new agreement(s)

(I've dumped this and Trinity and soon maybe one or two more towards gathering ammo. to, in due course, try and average down - and eventually out - on two big AIM O&G bets I'm very painfully letting run through this carnage.. SAVP and PXOG )

If you have the abiliy to rideout and then average down at end of this huge storm there is still money to be made... I guess/ hope.

Hopefully OPEC and Russia and even US included can come to a deal in coming few months to constrain supply.. A few quarters sub $40 Brent would have huge economic and social consequences for many countries around the world.. not least Nigeria, sadly... and- even including its probably well protected revenues - there would I expect be meaningful adverse knock on consequences to SAVP ... sundry other O&G ers globally far more so granted .. especially US shalers of course.. but it will be degrees of awful across the board in a macro price war race to the bottom

our posts over lapped Zengas..
I certainly am worn down already by this s/p decline.
The race is long if you want t to be though. So here's hoping for the future here.
And keep up your good posting please.

OPEC + talks collapsing this afternoon without any agreement is a real shock to me and very bad news for PoO I feel. (In a few weeks time the old agreement will expire and in the absence of a new agreement between now and then all can pump as they see fit from 1st April )

All O&G stocks could be heavily and indiscriminately tarred with the same brush off the back of this.

I feel I need to revise my previous thinking now.

The Yanks are thankfully generally slow to sell down their markets - shares are far more engrained in their culture than uk for eg I think.. many manage their pensions themselves to some degree from a long time back and they're have a go heroes/ risk takers by nature.. etc - and I'm hoping that even if this Corona Virus causes more panic/economic decline from here - and it may well do - the Dow still for eg won't go under 20k and that would give me hope in a convoluted way that SAVP won't tank hugely further from 10p .. so I'd just about still stick with my recently offered 7.5p as worst case scenario here in my mind - perrhaps round that down to 7p as for whole number shout - and i'd placing my remaining additional bets here on that basis. Towards balance i'd offer my best case scenario in coming few months for SAVP stays at 20p.. eg a properly good RNS in some shape or form in next few months could do wonders.. and the corona virus may not play out as badly as some think it might.. ( ps towards balance, the government should have outlined a best case scenario along side worst case recently imho)

luck is massive in life George.. enjoy your pints, i'll be doing similar later

( health is truest wealth.. whatever else, we're doing a bit here to try and help on that front )

I'd guess that panic selling here today is indeed corona virus macro fear related.
i'm seeing 9.25p to sell as i type.. very sad indeed .. and I guess this fall can easily continue from here..but hopefully not

it has to be meaningfully good news George and if they have some they'll no doubt RNS it.. if they don't.. etc.

In this corona paniced environment this could of course go into 20's p in coming weeks and it is of course possible they could raise at lower than that .. that would obviously be truly awful for longterm s/p potential here.. but it's awful for most long term shareholders here already anyway..

In the current corona virus worried macro environment very few companies will put out an RNS around no known reason for s/p weakness imho. ( even if things were going braodly to plan until recently, creditors might be slower to pay for eg in coming months.. or progress slower than hoped for in a demand sense.. or production issues because staff off sick ..etc..)

PS; In case of confusion here from our previous exchange of ideas, I think you Zengas are about the best poster here in terms of detail on SAVP and things Oil and Gas generally in Nigeria and environs. That is very valuable to this BB and I appreciate it a lot.

ps: towards disclosure I sold down a third of my - smallish - position here this morning.. part of a wider exercise to get more out of shares and into cash for a while.

I am likely open to buying back here with those proceeds and more besides in a few months time, or earlier even if I feel the s/p is a better value buy at that time for whatever reason.

they very likely have potential investorS lined up Timmy... the burning question is what price those investors invest at..
this company will at least tick along on its trialing journey for a year or two more whatever imho.. the value of its share price during that journey is a big question obviously.

If it can get MTD201 to market in some shape or form then 100p + ( new money ) could of course still happen here in the future imho.. others of its drugs like MTX110 to market would help the s/p somewhat too.. their delivery technologies likely have value too. And if / as they reach key milestones along their journey this s/p can go up decently too be that a spike or sustainably etc.

Also this company could be bought out / taken private in the short or medium term too and there could be premium value to the s/p around that time from that.. or they could sell something from their stable of drugs/delivery technologies in their current state of advancement to raise cash that would lower the level of funds to be raised through placement in 20/21 etc..

There is always hope.. but being in such shares is clearly hard core gambling imho and therefore you got to be prepared to maybe lose most or all the value of your bet(s) too ..

I'm still holding here but with a mid size position for me only.. haven't sold any through this Covid outbreak so far.. but may sell a small ish % of holding soon just in case, but remain undecided on that.. hence why I look in here for the first time in a while now.

High quality and informative discussion on Covid here too.. thanks ..in line with the high quality discussions ongoingly on Kmr .. again thanks.

And great if the views on Covid implications are, on average, better than the shouts on Kmr s/p movements ,on average, over the years here :-)

If raise participants want to raise at as low as possible level - and they often do - then there are plenty of reasons why this s/p might happen to fall meaningfully ahead of an imminent raise.

This is a very very difficult situation share.. and post consolidation on AIM here, holding onto 40p will be a ask imho.. very sad altogether but I'm now well into Viveka's earlier mentioned 'acceptance' phase here ..

We need something left field good happening quickly here.. we really do...