Member Info for NicetoMichu

There are periods between invoicing and payment received as a matter of course anyway, and I guess that's a 'fluid' period at the best of times in Nigeria... and - very ?- likely there are some cumulative arrears in certain situations from well back anyway.

My guess is along the lines of lumpy payments every now and again are received to pay some portion of the overall o/s bills.. some maybe large pay down others smaller depending on differing circumstances at a given time.

So, including Co-Vid and collapse of O&G prices generally, I'd be stunned if they're being paid fully/near fully in the short term for gas/extra gas being supplied in April and May for eg.... more like the - further - accumulating total bills will be paid down by irregular increment over time.

So AK may be waiting until he's had some - hopefully chunky - o/s incremental payments banked before giving a big picture update of amounts owning versus paid. and/or towards deciding when he must escalate to the powers that be towards achieving agreement to evoke some/all of the guarantees in as optimal a way as possible around the concerns/needs of all interested parties. ( the latter taking time to agree and might include the powers that be pushing debtors to pay SAVP another chunk now/soon etc..)

If the court passes favourable judgement it would buy them one huge month thru to late May, which gives them a chance to figure something out to avoid receivership. Especially if US and starting to unwind lockdown in late April and UK early May, then then I'd guess they have half of chance of finding emergency funding from somewhere sometime in May to tide them over thru June and into July and that then hopefully allows them survive.

If the court ruling goes against them then its very likely insolvency (which shareholders may well get very little OR nothing out of)

a non s/p down day if they cut big, perhaps
( towards hedging my bets and including flat on the day I went for above instead of 's/p up day' :-) )

25p -35p old money I guess George, as per your up to 25 bagger recent view? (aka very approx. 500p to 750p range in todays 20 to 1 consolidated rebased price)
Boom, boom .. or should that be zoom, zoom...

seeing as you put it like that OAPK20 I've today topped up my modest position here. Was encouraged by some buying going on here more generally today too.. potential for upside more than downside from here imho.. DYOR of course

While decimated, the company is still alive and will seemingly stay that way through Covid at least Silverknight.. so 0p unlikely for a fair while yet, whatever imho. And, whatever else, given the nature of the game there will be some meaningful spikes and troughs in s/p in that time.. so trading at least half decently out of a hole is possible via good/fortunate short term playing, perhaps... Although a starting position of 190p here is not a good one I grant you. Mine is fortunately a lot lower than that and so I will have at least have a small go at trading my way out of this, but will likely only start that exercise by averaging down around May/June time.... as I guess no meaningful news will be released here in the next say two months and I also still think there might be a small amount of cash required selling by small ticket players here between now and then, be that to bet on another stock instead of emergency take out of market altogether.

Generally, in old money terms we're at approx. 1.1p now and as there has been minimal buying at anywhere around this level, everyone holding this is under water now including the very few small play late entrants so far likely having an average of 40p plus at best imho. Also, the bad news has to be mostly out there now and, importantly, it is clear that the IP assets could easily be worth considerably more than the current - 6m ish - market cap still too.
So I still have some hope of getting most of my remaining bet here back altogether and maybe even making a small profit too. But very much DYOR... this is an absolute dog and, as per last year plus here, for hard core gambling only.

We're all but a function of our environment. And while I'm of course annoyed with lack of updates generally here the only defence I'd make of AK is that he is doing business in a country where the rules are very different is most very way to what we generally are used to (eg transparency/fairness is a long long way from what we understand as normal).. An environment where who you know/are liked by and playing by their rules is far more the only option then we might generally get .. so when it comes to invoking guarantees versus affecting country credit ratings for eg or getting paid in due course as opposed to now because senior enough people will make sure it happens eventually, one way or other, if you play the game as they define the rules ..etc.. you've got to, in the end, be patient and hope it goes well over the piece (or just up and bet elsewhere instead)

THIS IS NIGERIA (and Niger, but that's somewhat an aside for now) and the President himself pushed this deal through RELATIVELY early versus others don't forget.

by any remotely fair and reasonable definition.

And what further annoys me is that in this ongoing information vacuum very mixed messages from quality posters on this BB are occurring; perhaps by sources close to the company, perhaps not?

eg Sankeys wrote nearly a month ago now: ''but I do think:know Savp revenue payments are coming in and you will get an update in Q1.''

Care to comment further on this now please Sankeys?

eg Paul Curtis wrote ''The next RNS will state that the Guarantee now invoked. Clearly a very delicate matter and SAVP can’t give any update now - the only question we will be asking is are you being paid for the gas.''

Yet CJGoldsmith has very recently posted ''Heard back from Sally last week they haven't had call on the guarantees in place for either Calabar or Unichem''

Care to comment further on this now please Paul?

I am a patient guy and involved in a lot of AIM stocks and BB's and offer that even by comparison across the AIM CESSPIT, communications from SAVP to PI's are altogether somewhere between very bad and awful. (not disgraceful imho granted, as that's such a low bar on AIM, as witnessed by some of the occurrences in the field of AIM Investor communications or lack of being jail worthy, which I very much hope will never be the case for SAVP)

or perhaps the II's are being kept well informed in an informal fashion..
leaving me and you to hope for the best in terms of payments for gas being received one way or other, some time or other

You're some man for one man George.

INCREDIBLE news that.. I was somewhat - but not totally - downbeat about this going forward in truth, but have just had an Galaxy sized pivot on that .. and am just about to put a deposit down on a new car, in anticipation. ( great deals out there at this sad Covid time )

So lets just roundly say the 150 m gbp then George.. less sundry wide ranging expenses of course.... and versus current market Cap. of around 5 to 6 m Gbp that's a very approx. a 25 'bagger' from here, no less. 'Just the 25 bags' !!!!!!

PS; That's definitely USD and not for eg Jap Yen you're quoting ?

shocker.. and one of my bigger bets too.. just hope for something good to still happen here.. but it may not of course.. still think there's a semi decent chance its not all over here yet.. some emergency funding from somewhere, somehow.. maybe some government backed bank emergency lending scheme somewhere.. a million or two funding might do it.. shutter factories for three months and put the staff on furlough on part pay so they can survive..

'' their best outcome is to find a buyer of the complete portfolio for $700m - $1.3b for the lot''

I think you might have made some very - very - serious typos above George.

If The Donald is to be believed then there is a clear opportunity for a quick resolution on the Saudi / Russia price war. So I added a small amount back here today in anticipation/hope.

Obviously such a resolution in itself would only be the beginning of a longish road back.. but voluntary curbs on output by the shale industry in US could happen too - if not shale co. economically forced retracting will have similar short term effect anyway, less so medium term than multi year agreed voluntary quotas though - and be another step forward on top.. and Covid-19 is a problem that will be 'managed' one way or other in months more than years imho.

(Altogether, my latest GUESS is Brent averaging somewhere in $35-$40 range in first half of this year and $40's -$50's range in second half of this year. And averaging somewhere in $50 -$55 range in 2021)

MTX110 is indeed something that gives us some hope too ..but, as said, getting FDA approval is hard generally. Indeed I'd offer that even if they had raised and spent the $30m for MTD201, there were, even for that, far from any guarantees of its approval.

Generally, I'd love to know the rough ratios of drugs in development by AIM Bio/pharma and FDA -or equiv.- approvals over a say 10 year window. off the top of my head I'd guess 1 in 4 maybe ?

By comparison, if you bet red or black on a roulette table in the Casino you have an approx. 48.5% chance of winning.

Altogether, I don't think people generally come close to grasping anything like the odds they're playing against in this game. I genuinely believe you have better odds in a casino.

Sad that such a radical restructure was deemed necessary.. but MTD201 phase 3 and Bilbao scale up costing approx. $30m is a far bigger number than I'd have guessed and so their decision in sundry unprecedented circumstances is understandable if awful.

Generally, they still have patents and their delivery technologies are perhaps potentially very useful to many partners etc. and they have likely/hopefully a cash runway for a year now. So they don't have a gun to their head for partnership / asset sale or company sale outcomes at least. And there still is potentially value here and 20 people still have work ..

Instinctively I've always liked their delivery technologies .. and while the big dreams here are clearly dead now - I'd stopped big dreaming here a fairly long time ago in truth - I haven't given up all hope here yet either.. far from even.. and I can still perhaps/hopefully see 50p or 75p or a bit more again here at some stage in the future.. a pathetic figure in the eyes of many here granted and losses for some are sadly large and perhaps mostly cast in stone now - and I hate to see people lose their hard earned money - but the company is doing what it has to do to survive.

I'm impressed with that RNS .. probably go as far as very impressed even.

(having sold a third of my position a few weeks back - not flx specific, more emergency baton down hatches across the whole p/f - I bought half that amount back this morning in the early .7's and I'm certainly here for the medium term, at least, now.. that's not to say I wouldn't continue to do some range trading for part of the position towards bringing my average down with small losses only in that process, that will very hopefully be gotten back and more besides in due course)

PS: Interesting to see you over on the TSG board as well Noel S. I hope you'll be more civilised towards me there versus here. I'm not into car park pugilism, so you can take that as a victory already achieved and therefore, hopefully, look to re start with a clean slate in any BB comms. with me.

He actually said 'by the end of March 2020' instead of by the end of March (and no mention of a year), which surprised me :-)

But he has never really been on time with anything previously so I'm more hopeful than expectant of that update tomorrow.

If it is late then you could equally argue that there is some sort of deal in the offing that he just needs a bit longer to get over the line... whereas if a more mundane update it would be easy to meet his offered deadline.... so I'm not sure how the share price will react if no RNS tomorrow.

one of the stocks I have highest hopes for in my p/f now.. not got a meaningful position here yet though, and intend adding more by increment as I go.. volatile though and so useful to be of a disposition that doesn't sweat it if it goes down 20% for no apparent reason.. I'd see any such fall as a great buying opportunity and indeed see anything up to 80p as a good buying opportunity,,, and this as a good medium term bet and so any such volatility is background noise only imho..

End of quarter update is what has been touched on in post(s) here as a decent possibility and might well now be the Co's plan.. so next week at earliest for that.

And the longer they wait the more clarity they'll have on what's happening on the ground and what their revised operational plans are and any reworking of finances in light of CoVid 19 etc.

This is a very important update and I'd rather them take their time and be comprehensive in that update. ( and hopefully find/offer BOTTOM LINE TANGIBLE positivity too of course )

I fully agree with the first 10 words of your latest post Lucky520 :-)