Member Info for NicetoMichu

Been in this for a fair few years now and am of course way underwater.. have topped up on false dawns a few times too and have a bigger position here than I'd like.. back small topping up again at under 1p and now again today.. this share has been an absolute joke since I've been involved..but this time it will be different.. maybe/hopefully/very please.. ahem...

The government recently making lump sum payments to address arrears in the sector is very positive/reassuring in my mind.

Worst case generally in the sector is that arrears cleared down will allow bandwidth for build up on monies owing again in fiscally very difficult March to Sept. period while companies have banked chunky back payments and some regular payments to allow all stay plenty liquid in 2020.

Also, in my mind the SAVE at 8p ish, is so low because of the meaningful possibility of some ongoing arrears in payments owing thru 2020 is already built into the s/p.

Sure there could be a further panic retail investor sell off spike down if FCF is much lower than hoped for when we do finally get an update...but with the guarantee as emergency cover and key service provider status in there abouts the most fundamentally important sector in the Nigerian Economy for SAVE and manageable/flexible debt versus assets this company won't come remotely close to going under whatever and so is remains a good medium term bet imho.

(that's not to say I see 100p or close for SAVE by 2023 btw.. why I'm saying that I'll elaborate on some other time. And my target exit price is as medium term holder is around 50p-60p range)

In summary: 5p on bad news versus 13p on good news versus 8p as I type with an altogether promising to very promising medium term view for SAVE is fine by me.

very impressive grades and very impressive outlook generally here imho..

I did another top up this morning.. and I'm open to do one or two more in the 80's p.

Compared with other goldminers generally now punchy valuations, this company remains clearly significantly undervalued imho and, again, I think 150 p is doable here fairly quickly (within a year/18 months type thing)

that strategy is raise small every few months to incrementally prove up the resource more and more to get a sale of JV counterparty to eventually bite? But that's been the strategy for a long time now.. and they're very good at the raise small money part of that strategy and decent at the proving up the resource part....but what about the money shot.. many have waited such a long time .. and all that happen is they get to wait some more..

but no idea which year

is my bet for the next raise here.. I'd be disappointed if it was July and happy if September.. but August is the month to look forward to I expect

lets indeed see 750p to 1000p George .. very please !!!!!!!!!!!!

Or even that fraction of that at say 100p even would be ok by me.

What we're both saying, and Viveka too. is that 20-25p seems a ridiculously low s/p versus the asset values here... when any or all of the companies assets are actually currently actively up for sale..

( versus until recently us all waiting for the next big raise hammering this s/p one more time.. that's parked now and we have a focus on a sale instead : so totally new/better paradigm now imho)

So, I'm soon enough hoping for a s/p rise here ... off the back of existing long term holders with high average prices seeing around now as a good time to top up to bring down their average price meaningfully down for a small additional bet monies commitment and new small holders coming on board here too ..

DYOR of course

IN A FOR SALE situation, makes this share interesting again.. maybe even very interesting !

Whatever way and in however cynical a fashion I now look at this share price, a 5m gbp market cap versus the assets here has to make this a good punting opportunity now.

We're no longer waiting for the next capital raise to hammer us again.... we're waiting to see what any or all of our assets are worth. And there are some interesting/good assets here that are cumulatively worth way more than 5mgbp imho.

So the s/p dynamic is very different now versus previously, I feel.

Therefore I've small topped up again just now.

DYOR of course and for hard core players only

Thanks for posting the Act wording daytrader17.

What's your view on the Bagr.l specific play out ?

still alive at least.. a very tricky one this though and I instinctively feel it's definitely less than 50/50 on this surviving in the short term... and even if it does then surviving thru remainder of 2020 will be very tricky too. ( but just getting the chance to worry about the second part of that sentence would be a fine thing in itself at this stage perhaps )

Ps; Ezry built that stake here very mostly BLIND of looming co-vid consequences and whatever his plans were prior to covid they might easily be different / very different now.

Also, prior to this possible insolvency situation, if he wanted to cause whatever delisting effect then whatever offer that had to be voted through by existing shareholders would have a better and better chance of passing the more shares he had accumulated prior to that vote

Generally, you could argue that with decent skin on the line his mind will be very focused on this co. avoiding administration in the short term.. but that might easily include him being involved in taking this private and like the rest of us taking the loss of all/most all bets placed monies on the chin .... but him doing so in the knowledge that he might still make that and more back in the long term here. Or, less brutally for the rest of us, hopefully he might just help arrange a loan/revised business plan from somewhere for Bagr.l to survive. ( the value of the base assets here will be far greater in a years time than a forced sale in the coming months and creditors will get that very well too and so maybe facilitate bagr.l surviving this situation at least )

if outright sale of Mtph your broker can swap out your shares for accepted buy out price after delisting and credit your account with the cash and or shares in a buying out company if that's part of the make of an agreed sale.. or you can sell the shares in the open market at any time up to the shares stopping trading because of company sale
(there are many ways this can play out besides an outright co. sale, of course

although anything even resembling George-Inn's valuations here being achieved would a very - very - much more appreciated outcome here.. of course

Indeed Viveka …
(100p would be a reasonable/good outcome for an outright sale of this Co. in my mind)

ps just did a small top up to put my money where my mouth is

no meaningful idea Viveka but no fun in not having a guess so I'd value Q-Sphera tech at £15m plus.. and In terms of short -term tangible bottom line value add it is the jewel asset here I believe.

The asset value of this company could in total be worth significantly north of £25m imho..but you need not be a forced seller.. mtph is not exactly a forced seller but not far off in truth .... but selling one asset even can change that picture quickly .. giving it lots of options for the rest of assets going forward

And agreed that the live s/p is a meaningful factor in any asset valuation..but multiple interested parties in any or all of the assets could for eg be a big thing in nullifying that factor

Generally, while I'm not surprised this s/p went down this morning, because that's what mtph s/p kinda does as a rule, I actually think it should have gone up.. and I'm more likely to top up again now, in due course, than I was for eg last week

Transformational on Pension Fund which was skeleton in the cupboard .

Trading progressively and well ..

50 p doable here pretty quickly I believe .. and any takeover offer would need be 70 p plus now to have a chance of success imho

Logical thing to examine sale opportunity for some or all the company assets at this stage imho .. understood some might want to keep their head buried in sand instead of crystallising how bad - or not, hopefully - the true value picture is here now .. but not me

This appears to have plenty of bandwidth to rise strongly from here - 75p-80p range - and still only then be on a par with many many other gold miners in terms of fair value. imho

I have just done another top up which was going to be my last but given latest information here and general macro picture I'd likely do small additional top up(s) up to approx. 95p now.

Generally, with luck, I feel this could move well up towards 150p in the short/medium term now, and that still without looking expensive.

(But I would add this may remain prone to some illiquidity which can beget some sharp down movements from time to time too. But, even if such - again - happens, hopefully the overall uptrend can still remain in positively tact for a long while yet)

Interesting start here today and glad I came on board here recently .. to too up or not ...Pump and dump or beginning of something sustainablely good ?

(that’s a very colourful chart Lakshmi btw .. as colourful as I’ve seen perhaps .. yellow is an underestimated colour too imho .. brings out the best in a chart, I’d offer )

I hadn't read Zengas's latest post before posting mine.. so plenty of 'snap' / agreement in the latter part of his post of 2.14 and mine.