Member Info for NicetoMichu

Very best wishes cj and the value you add to the world is far far greater than I ever will ....and I'd guess perhaps many of the rest of us here too.

The Government and NHS seem to be doing extremely well in preparation towards giving our Health Service a good chance of not getting overwhelmed by this virus, so that gives great hope to me and I hope you too.

(ps Lombardy apparently had a uniquely unfortunate combined set of circumstances, starting with the virus getting there very early in a European context and spreading widely unknowns/semi unknown for a relatively long period ahead of lockdown...with a fundamental early problem tragically being infected GP's in their communities infecting on average approx. 10 plus patients - average is generally one person infecting just over two others apparently - a time, many of them old aged, when the GP's thought they were just braving a mild flu and had important work to do. Also optimal - cold - weather conditions for the virus to thrive and family structures involving the old co habiting and or socialising closely with significant numbers of wider family/friends across multi generations including a very tactile sociable orientation in large family gatherings in confined space environments. Also there are significantly more old people in Lombardy per head of population than the UK average too ( The average age of those who have tragically lost their lives in Lombardy, while coming down day by day granted - and I do of course get it's not a virus that just kills the old - is still between 78-79 years of age) Finally, the virus perhaps/hopefully seems to have peaked there over this weekend just gone too in terms of both deaths and infection rates, and Germany hopes to confirm similar on infection rates at least in the coming days and Spain within a week.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil-usa-saudi-arabia/u-s-to-send-envoy-to-saudi-arabia-texas-suggests-oil-output-cuts-idUKKBN21801Z

That 10,000 becomes 20,000.. 40,000... 80,000... 160,000 etc quickly through multiplier CE

(You own swathes of Xtract shares for a reason perhaps :-))

That said, I see this distancing effort as a one off up to a couple of months brilliant societal endeavour to give the NHS a chance to even somewhat prepare for an enormous challenge that it has never been set up to cope with. Even slowing public transmission meaningfully for a while alongside getting another 20k ventilators into the system and finding 20k more serious care beds - and hopefully a few thousand more intensive care beds too - and staff training redeploying etc / with proper barrier protection including immediate ongoing access to different types of test - have virus now or not or have antibodies in body that makes you immune for decent period going forward etc - will make a massive difference in this battle. ( Also very likely spring and especially summer warmth will slow transmissions meaningfully)

That said, more generally, society will have go back to normal soon enough as, apart from one off endeavours based on human decency, the needs of the very very many have always to take precedence over the very very few.. or else structures and order breaks down and chaos ensues.

Back to matters specifically xtr: if /when the rediculous spread here narrows i'll do another small top up towards getting my average price down..I still somwhat believe... but promise to never hold swathes of xtr

(having not sold any through Co Vid so far ) I've started small topping up here today.. and will likely look to do a couple more small top ups ahead of the end of this month.... mostly because I think I'm starting to see chinks of light at the end of the awful Covid tunnel in Italy.. but also somewhat because I still feel that CB, with his plenty flaws. is wily/bottom line savvy enough to get at least some good things happening at least for a while for xtr soon enough.

just seen this huge fall today and I'm gutted and shocked.. and given I still hold too many oilers which are being obliterated it takes a lot to gut and shock me..

My guess is, just about, mtph won't go under though.. go to short -term skeleton staff and push back testing and do a raise in late spring/early summer, perhaps.. maybe they can sell some assets in summer too... a JV for some part of their p/f advancement with monies injected upfront possible too I guess.. but participating in a raise for peanuts is the best way to get involved here for many pharma co's / II's I expect.

even including todays rise petering out a bit in the end it was still a pleasant experience (for a change) ! And while I have no idea how Sankeys is confident there will be an update RNS in q1, if others are similarly confident and are also confident it will be a 'good' one then that might explain today's rally.. and hopefully there's some more in anticipation buying to come still.. and then more buying again when a 'good' SAVP RNS drops soon enough
(my guess is Global Markets movements and PoO movements will still have a big impact on share price ups or downs here too eg Global markets and PoO are both decently up- so far - today)

If Putin sticks to a plan for a price war to get 'normalcy back to $45/b+', it would simply be him using Oil instead of the military to undermine the World order as we now know it. The implications for small oilers catastrophic of course.. but thats tip of iceberg stuff in a bigger picture view..far bigger nation and societal implications off the back.

Its sad for me to hear how brutal your financial journey has been in this game so far crl123. I feel plenty others the same and playing AIM generally can be financial suicide for so many sadly. I've taking a beating in recent years but did well previously at least..and am slowly giving up this game, in truth.. indeed that slowly is turning to a lot more quickly now.. but, like in 2016, there are big quick wins to be made when this price war ends, I expect.. and i'll try for those ( and if successful then will have a kitty to play the game for a bit longer etc)

Try and find a way of keeping your health up.. long walks in nice surroundings, especially nature, and other interests that take your mind off this mad game.

Generally, Saudi are right to go supply and price nuclear on Russia off the back of their walk away.. I feel.. gives the best chance of a compromise solution being found in the shortest possible time... very hopefully

Trin are in a very strong position relative to most AIM oilers .. so they'll survive ok alright... timing re -entry broadly right is very important though.. a real shame you have no bullets left to fire here but this s/p will come back in due course and you're existing total value investment will come back with it.

Take care
Michu

President -PPC- did a reassurance update this morning

I have no children.

Towards trying to get you to say something positive here.. maybe / hopefully anyway :-)

Yesterday you wrote :

''There is no evidence available from SAVP on this - that is why we need the RNS.
The article states there were unpaid invoices of $66m for Jan-Sep 2019. Projected at the same rate, by March 2020 there will be unpaid invoices of $132m. According to the article, the guarantee is for a maximum of $118m. Then project for a further 6 months!. The Nigerian Govt is far less able to pay now that the oil price has fallen well below their budget predication. And just how effective is a guarantee that, if you call on it, you will damage the credit rating of a country and lose the goodwill of the Nigerian Government to the extent that you might as well exit the country (perhaps a good thing?)?
These 'unpaid invoices' are of critical importance. We need that RNS.''

I offer back:
If things go very badly in a PoO sense for a while then Nigeria's Credit rating would be downgraded by the agencies anyway. If that happens then calling on the guarantee could be done without incurring bad will from the Nigerian Government ? In fact they then might even encourage such happening at such a time?

Thanks Paul and I agree with you on that.
How much of the owed amount has actually now been paid versus still o/s - including the latest 3 months bills - -is still a question people want to know the answer to?

Speaking of the virus :
South Korea is probably/ hopefully starting to come out the other side now. For those who might say China did a massive cover up of true extent of the problem, I note that South Korea is an open democratic country where any meaningful cover ups would be heard about one way or other. It has now tested approx. 190,000 .. far far more than any western country.. and is reporting approx 7500 confirmed infections and 55 deaths . It has a population of approx. 50 million. And this was one of the more severely affected countries so far. Even accepting plenty with mild symptoms might never be tested, the figures are tiny, minuscule even???????
And today I hear Angela Merkel say up to 70 per cent of Germans could be infected. What are the mathematical probabilities of that from these underlying forecasting models? Legally, that should have to be included in the same sentence imho.

I'd be very disappointed if they don't issue an 'update' RNS within the next 7 business days. One is clearly required now.

(In the absence of an update RNS soon, and given the latest macro environment, my guess is this s/p would be more likely to go down from latest approx. 7.75p than up. If that RNS is delivered obviously the contents of it will be the key driver of the s/p direction, at least in the short term)

https://www.thecable.ng/exclusive-accugas-moves-against-nigeria-issues-notice-of-default-over-calabar-genco

I think this is the article being referred to.. happy to stand corrected on that... its the one I read at least :-)

I have never had any contact with SAVP or reps. but others here have regularly.. eg Zengas

"" There is no evidence available from SAVP on this - that is why we need the RNS.
The article states there were unpaid invoices of $66m for Jan-Sep 2019. Projected at the same rate, by March 2020 there will be unpaid invoices of $132m. According to the article, the guarantee is for a maximum of $118m. Then project for a further 6 months!. The Nigerian Govt is far less able to pay now that the oil price has fallen well below their budget predication. And just how effective is a guarantee that, if you call on it, you will damage the credit rating of a country and lose the goodwill of the Nigerian Government to the extent that you might as well exit the country (perhaps a good thing?)?
These 'unpaid invoices' are of critical importance. We need the RNS.''

I'd be equally happy if you didn't post this :-) but I'm never one for shutting people up of their opinion and yours is at least somewhat nail on head imho HappySparrow.

In difficult times the old stereotype is dusted down and paraded (if the parade isn't cancelled because of the virus):
It's Nigeria... debtors don't pay unless/until it suits them. And in a low PoO environment the government is relativey quickly not in a position to houour its guarantees.

(I note there are big player non Nigerian parties involved in guarantees here of course.. whcih should help a lot, whatever)

''Trinity also benefits from a large tax loss position of US$244.1 million (unaudited, as at 31 December 2019) which effectively means that around 75% of taxable profits are sheltered from PPT''

That's such a poor quality post Skeletor.. .. you could have re read that a few times in the time it took you to make the below post.

Fine RNS imho.. I'll be back topping up here in due course, I fully expect. ( still holding a small position here and only post on boards where I hold a position)

a bit of bounce back momentum here so far today, very thankfully..

..there has been talk here about an RNS being prepared for release this week.. a good one in the next day or two could be very timely indeed towards get some genuine bounce back momentum going here.. so here's very much hoping !

Is there genuine confidence among people who are close to IR here that such a reassurance RNS is actually going to be issued this week?

Ps: Trinity did a very strong one of similar fashion today and I appreciated it a lot and will add back some there now soon enough off the back. ( I only sold down it and one or two other quality plays towards getting a war chest ready for here.. as i'm in a big hole here now .. and see incrementally range trading my way out of a hole over time as the best way to go here)

Bluebelly,

I know little about gas pricing benchmarks, but a few guys on Parkmead board helped my understanding a little further. I guess you're quoting Henry Hub futures in your $1.71 and $1.82 below. It being a US market relevant benchmark. I asked was there a European equivalent measure and was told that it's all about local contracts across countries and even in region in country and there are wide variences in the prices achieved across these contracts, based on a host of factors ( I still guess there must be some European umbrella benchmark(s) ?) and that strikes me as particularly true for SAVP in Nigeria... and very good local medium/ longterm fixed price(s?) are in existence for SAVP with its end clients in Nigeria, including guaranteed minimum payments as Zengas so fully talks about.. So Henry Hub futures movemrnts are effectively irrelenvant here, I guess? Very happy to stand corrected and have my understanding further enhanced here.

Thanks Brasso..

If great posting gets a person out of a hole, you'll fly out of said hole in the end.. but I'm not sure it does, alas..

(You don't realise a loss - or gain even, if that ever actually happens from long AIM O&G - til you sell the position !)

The misery is catching me up big time elsewhere, I promise.. SAVP is an utter car crash.